The Sad Truth: the anti-Bush vote doesnt translate into proDemocrat votes

[Bucky]

Here's our excuses:
1. It's still early in the process
2. Voters haven't gotten to know our candidates yet
3. People instinctively support the president in a time of war
4. Polls! Ha! What do polls know? No one called me!

These are pretty good excuses. But, and this is the big but, they only cover up the unpleasant news. We are in trouble. I'm not pessimistic by nature, but the odds against us are long. Here's what polling shows according to Polling Report.com:

Bush against a generic Democrat:
44%-40% (CBS News/New York Times, Dec. 14-15)
44%-33% (NBC News/Wall Street Journal , Dec. 14)
48%-41% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup, Dec. 5)

But at the same time, here's the "Bush should be reelected" numbers:

44% (deserves reelection) - 46% (time for someone new) (Zogby, Dec. 4-6)
45% (yes, reelected) - 50% (no, not reelected) (Newsweek, Dec. 11-12)

So the generic Democrat loses while the "reject Bush" option is more popular. That is, even when people want to see Bush gone, the idea of electing a name-brand Democrat is less popular than keeping Bush in. So now when we compare the actual candidates, that is when we get more specific and before the Rove attack machine is turned on and focused on smearing whoever we nominate, we get this:

Bush v Dean:
51%-39% (NBC News/Wall Street Journal , Dec. 13 - preCapture)
52%-31% (NBC News/Wall Street Journal , Dec. 14)
52%-44% (Gallup, Dec. 11-14)
49%-42% (Newsweek, Dec. 11-12 (poll where 50% said Bush should go))
51%-40% (Quinnipiac , Dec. 4-8)

Bush v Clark:
50%-34% (NBC News/Wall Street Journal , Dec. 13 - preCapture)
51%-25% (NBC News/Wall Street Journal , Dec. 14)
49%-43% (Newsweek, Dec. 11-12 (poll where 50% said Bush should go))
50%-41% (Quinnipiac , Dec. 4-8)

Bush v Lieberman:
51%-42% (Newsweek, Dec. 11-12 (poll where 50% said Bush should go))
51%-40% (Quinnipiac , Dec. 4-8)


So the more specific we get, the better Bush's election chances get. There is a serious PR problem that Democrats have, and all the echo-chamber, self reinforcing trash talk that we do here at DU plays into that overall pro-Bush dynamic. We need a candidate who can transform that anti-Bush sentiment into pro-Democratic sentiment.

This is the soul of my concern about a Dean nomination. I don't think his laudable anger is transferable to voter sympathies or transmissible to the anti-Bush vote. In a time of war, swing voters are going to look at specific character issue that spell out stability and security; in a time of fear, they will look for comfort food candidates. And Bush is positioned to give them that.

If swing vote people were going to vote out of anger, they'd already be signed up for Dean. His challenge is to move out of anger mode and into comfort food mode. Given the current temperament of his supporters and his own words, I don't have much confidence that he can expand beyond his base.

[helleborient]

1. This is quite common this early in the process...

Most people are more knowledgeable right now about the Democratic party as a whole than any specific candidates.

If you have real data that in a previous campaign the specific Democratic candidate being behind was a serious concern...then I would put more stock in this handwringing.

[westman]

2. Agreed.

This is the most credible critique of the Dems '04 chances that I've read on DU. Well done.

[helleborient]

3. Comparison with known events in the past is necessary for credibility...

Where was Bill Clinton in this type of poll in 1992?

[Bucky]

4. Good point. Also, where was Poppy Bush? He did EVERYTHING wrong in 92

Is there an active Buchanan-type insurgency undermining loyalty to the sitting president? No.

Is there a Ross Perot-type insurgency helping to shape the notion that the right doesn't have its act together? No.

Is there going to be a general sense that the country is essentially safe to focus on economic issues solely because there's no threats from abroad? No.

Are we now banking on the fact that Dubya will do as badly as his old man? Looks like.

Is that a safe bet?