German schoolboy says Asteroid Apophis has 1 in 450 chance of hitting Earth; NASA says he's right

[FVZA_Colonel]

http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html

German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.
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Now, I'm kind of skeptical about the "impact" one satelite could have on an asteroid like Apophis, but it is sort of amusing that NASA (likely) checked the math and said he was right.

[Jamastiene]

1. I'll be 58.

I hope I get AN AWFUL LOT OF PARTYING done before then...even if it doesn't hit Earth. :evilgrin:

[petronius]

2. Sounds a little misleading - I'm not sure I'd count hitting a satellite as

the same thing as hitting the Earth. I wouldn't be surprised if bot estimates are correct, they're just probabilities of two different things...

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. As I said in the OP, I have similar suspicions.

But if it is a problem I'm sure we can just get SG-1 to take care of it.

[petronius]

4. That's true - we'll surely have wicked cool anti-asteroid technology

by 2029! As long as a guy like McGyver has access to Stargate like technology, a mere asteroid has no chance at all.

(I must be a bit of a nerd, because Stargate was the first thing I thought of when I saw the asteroid name - it seems that your thought-process worked the same way... :))

[MissHoneychurch]

5. They said in the news

that if the asteroid hits the satellite it will change its way and then after moving around the sun one time might hit the earth. NASA and ESA kinda forget about that possibility ...

[NMDemDist2]

6. if it gets close enough to hit a satellite

that's pretty darned close

too close for comfort IMO

[Deep13]

7. The concern is that hitting a satellite might slow it down...

...causing it to be pulled in by terrestrial gravity.

[siligut]

8. There was news about Apophis in 2005.

Here is a link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9871982
The article from 2005 states that NASA is concerned that the asteroid will strike earth in 2036.

The recent article, about the school kid, posted in the OP, says that NASA didn’t take in to consideration that the asteroid might strike an earth satellite in 2029, thus changing its trajectory and then striking earth in 2036.

Confusion in the media? What's new?

Yes I know you can’t believe everything you read on the Internet, but I remember the concern of an asteroid hitting earth being mentioned at a dinner party, where some of the guests were scientists, back in 2005.

[csziggy]

12. Apophis risk not increased

Apophis ad Absurdum

At some point you've probably been driving down the freeway when a bug splats itself on your windshield. Did the impact send you careening off the side of the road? I thought not. But that's the underlying premise of a ridiculous story that took the Internet by storm yesterday.

<snip>

The story first appeared on April 4th in Bild, the German equivalent of Weekly World News. "I have calculated the end of the world!" screams the headline "...and NASA says, I'm right." This silliness might have died quietly, had the Agence France-Presse not repeated and embellished the tale on April 15th.

Kudos to German science writer Daniel Fischer, who got to the bottom of this mess and yesterday exposed it for the farce (or hoax) it was.

First, the boy misunderstood the flyby geometry in 2029 — the chance of striking a satellite is "vanishingly unlikely," NASA scientists insist. While it's true that Apophis will pass closer than the altitude of geosynchronous satellites, it'll be well outside them when it crosses Earth's equatorial plane, where they're located.

Second, Apophis has an estimated mass of some 20 million tons. Even if it did have a head-on collision with a sizable satellite, the impact would barely affect the asteroid's trajectory.(If you don't believe me, just ask the bug.)

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/home/17848084.html

Apophis risk not increased: science fair judges, world media screw up big time

Well, here's what NASA's NEO guru Don Yeomans told this blog yesterday: "We have not corresponded with this young man and this story is absurd, a hoax or both. During its 2029 Earth close approach, Apophis will approach the Earth to about 38,900 km, well inside the geosynchronous distance at 42,240 km. However, the asteroid will cross the equatorial belt at a distance of 51,000 km - well outside the geosynchronous distance. Since the uncertainty on Apophis' position during the Earth close approach is about 1500 km, Apophis cannot approach an Earth satellite. Apophis will not cross the moon's orbital plane at the Moon's orbital distance so it cannot approach the moon either."

http://cosmos4u.blogspot.com/2008/04/apophis-risk-not-increased-science-fair.html

[CreekDog]

9. they spent 37 million getting it wrong

and 49 million trying to prove he was wrong.

i estimate. :hi:

[ET Awful]

10. Not if I have anything to say about it

:evilgrin:

[Deja Q]

11. *gasp* We're doomed, I tells ya! Doomed! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

You get the idea.

[krispos42]

13. Again?

Jeez, I'm still working through my TP stockpile from Y2k and my duct tape and plastic sheeting from the post-9/11 paranoia! I've already furnished my house with pieces made from TP, duct tape, and plastic sheeting (the Barco-lounger is particulary comfortable), so I'm working on ideas for new projects. I'm thinking of some sort of playground setup...