Flash! 146,000 people died today!

[Cannikin]

At least, thats what Jeeves tells me.


1996 Figure: 6342 (Source The Disaster Center )

What does this give on a world basis?



My Answer 9500.

Imagine everyone lived to the age of 75 (rough average life expectancy) and that there was the same number of people of each age (i.e. the same number of 5 year olds as 65 year olds, people move though life as though on a conveyer belt). Assuming also that the population is constant. This implies that 1/75 of the population are dying each year. Estimate the total population of the US at 260 million.

i.e. 260 million / 75 = 3466666 people die each year

365 days in a year.

Therefore 3466666/365 = 9500 people per day.



In these type of questions the same order of magnitude is a good answer. I don't know why my answer is too high, possibly because the population of the US is growing. My estimate is 3100 people a day to high which equals 1.1 million people a year or a growth rate of 0.4% a year.



World Figure:

Estimate the world population at 6 billion (6000 million) and 260 million in the US.



6342 * 6000 million / 260 million = 146 thousand people per day.