which of 6 senarios is most likely in Iraq 6 months from todays vote?

[papau]

Poll question: which of 6 senarios is most likely in Iraq 6 months from todays vote?

For the moment ignore the Canadian Iraqi's comment this
morning that Bush rigged the counting of the US votes, and he
will do the same in today's election in Irag.  And pretend you
do not know that the Kurds ran a separate vote on "Do we
demand Independance" today as they also voted for the
Kurdish list of candidates.

Assume only good, honest counting is done that results in the
folks people want in the government, and that those people
thus chosen are good honest folks that want only what is best
for Iraq and that they are willing to compromise with one
another.

In 6 months from today which of the following situations will
be occuring:

[mike_c]

1. need an "all of the above" catagory....

All are likely, at least to some degree, IMO.

on edit: the most important point, I think, is that none of these scenarios are mutually exclusive, and if Iraq descends into full on civil war, all of these are simultaneously possible.

[papau]

5. true - but watch media today praise Bush! :-)

:-)

[Osamasux]

2. I picked choice two, but it could be many of them.

Six months is too soon for a Turkish invasion, but longer term, that is possible.

The US is already on a path for choice six.

Three is doubtful. I don't see a reason for the Shia to empower the Kurds.

[mike_c]

4. well, if civil war erupts between Shi'a and Sunni arabs...

...the Shi'a would do well to keep the Kurds out of it, and the easiest way to do that might be to keep them involved on the path of exclusive self-interest by consolidating their political autonomy. That in turn might draw Turkey's attention, but in a way that further occupies the Kurds with other matters.

[Misunderestimator]

3. The last choice is a given... the others are optional.