LA, MS, and AL. Ivan is Cat 5 again, and the track has been moved west...

[Maddy McCall]

Looks like FL might evade this one, but it doesn't look so good for MS, LA, and AL. :scared:

11 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

AIR FORCE RECON THIS EVENING FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL...700
MB...WIND OF 155 KT IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS OBSERVATION SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KT...SO IVAN
HAS REGAINED CATEGORY 5 STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IF THE EYEWALL PASSES OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN INTENSITY
MAY OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR IVAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS MOST PROBLEMATIC. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW WESTERLY
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WHICH WOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER IVAN ONCE IT ENTERS THE
GULF. ALSO...ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOWS
EVEN MORE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THE GFS MODEL 200 MB WIND
FORECAST SHOWS THE OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE DOMINATING THE
CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN 2-3 DAYS...AND THE LATEST
SHIPS MODEL RUN SHOWS LESS VERTICAL SHEAR AT THIS TIME FRAME THAN
IN EARLIER RUNS. WE ARE ASSUMING THAT SHEAR WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN
WEAKENING THE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. NONETHELESS IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES
THE UNITED STATES COAST.

THE EYE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ALONG A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING...300/8. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IVAN.
THIS SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST VERY SOON. BY AROUND 48
HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT IVAN WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...THERE HAS BEEN INCREASE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
SPREAD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
MORE TO THE WEST BUT IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK...AND LEANS
TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/130253W5.gif

[Gildor Inglorion]

1. Uh-oh....

I better go stock up on beer and batteries tomorrow! :scared:

[Maddy McCall]

3. I'm going to go get some canned stuff...

like Spam (go ahead--laugh :-) ). And other quick fix stuff, too. And LOTS of water and bottled propane.

I just have a bad feeling about this one--about it coming in near New Orleans.

[deminflorida]

2. Thanks for the graphic...that track lays down on top of my house

here in Navarre, Florida just east of Pensacola. Guess I'll be needing alot of support from you guys and gals over the next three to four days, as my family and I get ready to face a monster of a storm. Oh well we love living here, and I guess this is just the price you pay for living in Paradise.

I am still concerned however that there are no official shelters for Navarre, all the county shelters are to the north in Milton or Pace. Also note we have lots of trailer parks here, and alot of them are not the fancy ones like down in the richer parts of the state. Most of these independent mobile homes and run down parks are inhabited by immigrant workers, elderly and poor people.

[Maddy McCall]

4. You and your family should evacuate out of the panhandle if it looks like

it is going to make landfall near you. I wouldn't stay at a shelter unless I absolutely have to.

Same thing with the trailer parks on the Mississippi coast...lots of folks who work at casinos live in trailer parks.

[deminflorida]

5. Oh my family is going to my fathers house, north in Alabama....

I may stay, and I'm definently boarding up. I live in a brick house constructed after Opal in 1998. I'm sound side however, but not right on the water. I guess it will depend on intensity and exact location of landfall. If it's a four or five, I'll be running for my life I guess like everyone else around here. What saddens me however are all the poor people who don't have the resources to run if they have too.

[Maddy McCall]

6. Yes, that saddens me, too.

The National Guard SHOULD be home helping with evacuating them, but, oh well... :(