How many Real contenders are there?

[littlejoe]

It's a fair question to ask. As a democrat for over forty years, I've always been amazed at how many of our leaders think they can become president. Just like death and taxes, you rest assured that every four years, ten or so of our leaders will run.

In my opinion, because of this we get shortchanged. It is awfully tough to get your message out when you are fighting a baseball team of rivals.

I, for one would be very happy to see about six of these people drop out after New Hampshire.

[Bucky]

1. But they won't. Not six anyhoo.

The most likely kayo from New Hampshire would be Kerry. But Kerry is already positioning himself to survive the expected #2 showing there. If I were a risk averse betting man, I'd say Braun, Kerry, and Edwards crumble on Feb 3rd. Everyone else is good to go for at least a week beyond that. We may not have a two-person race until Wisconsin (Feb 17th).

Were I a betting man, that is.

[molly]

3. Wanna put money in my pocket?

[littlejoe]

4. cryptic. explain

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[molly]

9. Judas - money - WTF are you talking about?

I will bet anyone that Kerry will not drop out!

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

11. I agree with you on that

Kerry ain't goin' anywhere.

There are six candidates I think could drop out. Since my avatar gives away my preference, and I have stated that Kerry will stick around, this means that there is one more candidate that I think should hang around.

I will leave that a mystery for the DU community to ponder. Why? Because that's the way LittleDannySlowhorse operates. Mysterious. Opaque. Murky.

[Bucky]

10. Kerry is not a Judas, "Mr. AntiCoup"

That's both inflammatory and inaccurate.

[littlejoe]

6. A quite likely scenario

[arewethereyet]

2. one

John Edwards. The best, most charismatic, most complete statesman in the bunch.

[littlejoe]

5. Choirboy

[molly]

12. I also like John Edwards

and Wesley Clark - Kerry is still my number 1 choice.

[molly]

13. I also like John Edwards

and Wesley Clark - Kerry is still my number 1 choice.

[arewethereyet]

15. wow, deja vu

all over again

[ozone_man]

7. Two primary contenders.

Dean and Clark. Kerry is a long shot at this point and should really drop out after NH, assuming he also loses Iowa. He seems to have poor showings elsewhere. Lieberman seems to have shallow support, but wide. He should take a hint and drop out too, maybe even join the Republican party. Gephardt, after losing Iowa, should drop out. Edwards should drop out after losing SC to Dean and/or Clark. Kucinich, I would like to see him stay in for the debates, although Dean may benefit if he dropped out.

I don't know about Sharpton and Braun. They seem to be in it for the debates and to raise issues. JMHO.

[arewethereyet]

14. one problem, both are heading south poll wise

perhaps we had better defer this question a few weeks.

[tedoll78]

16. Here's how I've figured things:

Dean has his ticket to the final round. That's all. The other eight are fighting for the other ticket to the final round.

Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun haven't a chance. They will win no major states.

Kerry dies a slow, painful death if he can't win in his own back yard.
Same goes for Gephardt.

Clark and Edwards have the best chance to take the role as the non-Dean; a win in South Carolina would be necessary for this to happen. If Edwards can't win in his own back yard, he hasn't a chance. And Clark must place well in New Hampshire (perhaps humiliate Kerry by placing 2nd?) and then win in South Carolina.

Lieberman doesn't seem to have a clear path to the nomination. Tied for first here and there, but nothing really significant.

So my money is on Clark to emerge as Dean's main opponent. His path is "clearest." But he must stop Dean in South Carolina. And if Dean wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will get a significant media-driven poll bounce across the nation. With Dean rising to the top pack in South Carolina's recent polling (and with such a bounce), I can see him running away with the first three primary victories.