New New Hampshire polls --- Dean vs Bush

[MIMStigator]

Bush 57%
Dean 30%

American Research Group Poll


New Hampshire election results in 2000 election

Bush 48%
Gore 47%
Nader 4%


Why is Dean 27 points behind Bush in a state that knows him?

[slinkerwink]

1. this is the primary poll, not reflective of a general election poll

[MIMStigator]

3. It's a matchup between Bush and Dean taken today

eom

[SahaleArm]

4. Why is it a primary poll? *nm*

[Bombtrack]

13. it's amazing that even though this isn't a primary poll.,

and your response is a complete cop-out, that Deanies use the "Dean good in primary = Dean would be good in a general election" argument as a staple of there Defense of his electablity

Hy - friggin - pocracy of the worst sort

[MIMStigator]

49. Dean wouldn't even win primary if it was only Dean against Clark

or kerry or probably edwards or lieberman

[rucky]

2. Vermont envy?

nfi

[ALago1]

5. Do you have the stats of Gore v. Bush in 12/99?

Although I see the point you are striving for, you are comparing two completely different scenarios. One being the results after the general election, one being several months before the general election, before primaries are even over.

I would venture to say that Gore would be running close or beating Bush at this comparable point in time last election in this conservative state. He was widely recognized as vice-president. Yet, Bush probably managed to pull away as the general election grew closer.

Also, I don't think this is a state where all potential voters "know" Dean. Primary participation is much less than participation in the general election.

[maddezmom]

6. do you have the rest of the poll?

:)

[Kosmos Mariner]

7. Yikes!

I guess the NRA stuff didn't even help.

:evilgrin:



:dem:

[killbotfactory]

8. How did the others do?

Link?

So far, all the major candidates have almost all been within the margin of error. I don't see the big deal.

[bicentennial_baby]

14. It was only Dean...here's a link

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp45.html

[killbotfactory]

22. The generic dem candidate only got 34%

Sheesh. Yeah, Dean's the big loser here.

What a joke.

[sandnsea]

39. Why I question the company

And all the polls it's doing.

OR question why in the hell we're letting the state of New Hampshire decide who the Democratic candidate will be. It's tantamount to letting Montana decide. Either these companies are skewing their polls OR New Hampshire is way too far right to have such importance in picking a candidate that represents core Democratic values.

Not withstanding Dean is doing well elsewhere, granted. But Iowa seems to be much more representative of Democrats than NH.

[maddezmom]

24. thanks

was wondering if there was more. :)

[sandnsea]

19. Didn't ask

It's just a Bush/Dem comparison where they have now replaced Dean as frontrunner. They also questioned alot less Dems in this poll. I don't know the actual political makeup of NH, but the numbers they chose to use as their sample really makes me question this company altogether. No way NH could be this skewed if this were an honest polling company. IMO.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp45.html

[bearfartinthewoods]

61. have youseen the new peughe poll (sp?) ?

i don'y have a link so i bette keep mum.......

[MIMStigator]

26. Gap for un named democrat was ten points less than Dean vBush

eom

[killbotfactory]

36. Yet it was still only 34%

Wow.

[asjr]

9. That poll

must be skewed. I don't think there are that many dumb people in NH.

[Malva Zebrina]

10. Ouch -EOM

[Bombtrack]

11. Probably because it's a non-dovish, anti-tax increase state

I really wish this would actually make the Deanies admit that nominating Dean would be a demonsterably bad bet for democratic victory, but I doubt it will

[martdod]

12. New New Hampshire polls --- Dean vs Bush

"Why is Dean 27 points behind Bush in a state that knows him?"

I think you answered your own question. And if you need a hint
it's because they DO know him.

[bluestateguy]

15. That is inexcusably bad

Dean should be no more than 8 points down right now in a New England state that Al Gore only lost by 1% (Thank you Ralph Nader).

[janx]

20. Dean hasn't been nominated yet.

I'll take a look at a poll like this again next summer, should Dean be nominated.

Somehow...I think it might look a bit different.

[Toucano]

52. But do you promise?

Just kidding!

[Cooley Hurd]

16. The home state of John Sununu, and you have to ask?

NH is very conservative overall. Don't forget it's also the home of the infamous Manchester Union-Leader, one of the more right-wing papers in New England...

[MIMStigator]

21. But Gore + Nader got 51% in 2000

eom

[Cooley Hurd]

48. But it was the only state in New England that Bush won...

...in all the others he was trounced. NH is a conservative island in New England and isn't a good yardstick when trying to determine a Dem candidate's "electability." Gallant try, though... BTW - ABB!

[Granite]

56. Agreed - can't swing a dead cat

here in NH without hitting a repug. While the conventional wisdom is that Granite Staters are "independent", those of us that live and work for public institutions that are starved for funding are confronted with the conservative reality that exists in NH. While people tend generally to be fairly moderate in terms of their social views (repug-dominated legislature defeated a measure for parental notification for abortions last year, I believe) there is still a strong "family values" conservatism that rears its head occasionally in local politics.

And yes, the Union-Leader is one of the most conservative papers in New England. Of all the places I've lived, only Mississippi and Indiana have been more politically conservative.

[Cooley Hurd]

62. Welcome to DU, Granite!

:hi:

[DancingBear]

17. Sadly, this is not surprising

I feel it is a harbinger of things to come.

On a more local level, New Hampshirites and Vermonters tend to have (at times) an oil and water relationship. Vermonters believe New Hampshire is politically slightly to the right of Attila The Hun, and New Hampshire voters think Eugene Debs wrote the Vermont constitution.

For all you undecideds out there, please take a long look at Wesley Clark.

[Capn Sunshine]

18. Maybe because it was a hired gun poll?

Kinda makes you wonder about motivations just a little.

From ARGs website soliciting business:
"Most extraordinary is Beemer's central message that the fastest way to increase market share is to attack competitors at their strong points, not their weak ones. In short, if you want to win market share, you have to convince consumers that the major things your competitors do well you can do better."

[janx]

29. HA! Good catch.

Very good.

[rucky]

43. Dontcha love it when everybody ignores the one post...

that exposes the thread for the fraud that it is?

[Julien Sorel]

65. And this vitiates this poll exactly how?

[janx]

23. How's Clark doing against Bush in NH?

?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

25. Unless we can compare this to how the other Dems fare

it's not very useful, except to say that Dems may be in trouble in NH.

I also think that all of these "matchup" polls are slightly skewed, because some Dems may be tempted to either vote Bush or undecided, so as not to pump up a rival candidate. Just a thought.

[BootinUp]

27. Stop instigatin' MIMStigator!

No, thanks that is quite revealing....Guess we'll write that state off.

[MIMStigator]

30. Sorry but I hate *

and want him outta there

[Julien Sorel]

28. Christ.

Even I thought it would take a few months of negative attacks to get this far. The amazing thing is that Bush has been sitting on his hands and letting the Dems whale away at him without really replying all that much. What happens when the spin machine cranks up? Bush doesn't even have to move the numbers; all he has to do is keep them where they are, and he's going to have $200 million to do it.

But, let's not be pessimistic. Revolutionary campaign. Excite the base. People who are new to politics and are 'off the grid,' and so don't show up in polls. Raise $600 million dollars over the internet and outspend the Repubs. Tireless campaigner. Empowerment. Anger. A large number of ordinary Americans who are ABB. Blah blah blah. Ba ba ba.

[unfrigginreal]

31. LOL

ARG, these were the guys that showed Clark in first in SC by including only 30% Blacks while the Black turnout will be closer to 50%. Hardly an unbiased organization.

BTW, why do you suppose that they wouldn't show any other candidate head to head with Bush except Dean?

[SahaleArm]

33. Bet you weren't complaining about their poll with Dean at 45%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Put him up against Bush and watch him melt.

[unfrigginreal]

37. It's the same poll

To be honest, it makes me wonder if Dean didn't really have over 50%. Now give me one good reason for them to only show the Dean matchup versus Bush. What are they hiding about Clark?

[eleny]

32. I'm a Clark supporter and this poll really ticks me off

What are the people up there thinking? They want 4 more years? I hate this crap, I hate stupid Americans and I hate the sheeple. Snark!

[SEAburb]

41. So right, how can any Dem not be in MOE

against Bush there. Are the people of NH completely clueless? Are they isolate from reality? Unbelievable!!

[Thoth]

34. Can this be true?

I live in Nashua, NH and I wouldn't have guessed it to be this bad! I see quite a few Dean stickers and signs. If this is true, I'm also perhaps a lot braver than I thought, with a bumper sticker that says "Bush: A weapon of mass deception" and also "Bush Lied - Thousands Died". So far no one has flipped me off or keyed my car, though.

[Scott Lee]

35. So put in someone with less support than the front runner. Good plan.

I can see why the Democratic Party is a lean, mean election winning machine lately!

[SahaleArm]

38. Just think what 30% can net you...

[Kosmos Mariner]

45. lol

:toast:



:dem:

[Cooley Hurd]

53. Um... that map says 1984...

Apples and oranges, my friend. ABB!

[SahaleArm]

54. Just think - You too can relive history *nm*

[Cooley Hurd]

64. But, historically, 1984 is nothing like 2004...

Sorry, but it's apple and oranges... Remember, my friend... ABB! :)

[MIMStigator]

40. Less support in primary doesn't translate to less support in general

especially when there's 8 candidates in primary and anti Dean votes are divided between 3 or 4 right now

[NewYorkerfromMass]

42. "in a state that knows him"

Good point.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

44. How do the other Dems do? Check this out:

The poll posted above doesn't say, but check this one out:

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/iss111703.pdf

When asked which Dem has the best chance to beat Bush, here's the response:

Clark 8%
Dean 37%
Edwards 3%
Gep 6%
Kerry 21%
Lieberman 2%
Don't Know 20%

Looks like overall the Dems don't think we can win (yet), but Dean has the best chance. At least in this poll (Nov 6-13, MOE 4.6%)

[SahaleArm]

46. How do you explain unnamed Democrat receiving 34%? *nm*

[RevolutionStartsNow]

50. It sucks

but I can't explain it. Clearly, Dems need to get our act together.

[cindyw]

57. What do these people know of who can beat Bush?

I bet you can find a poll that says that 37% of the people think the moon is made of cheese. It doesn't mean it's true.

The only polls that can determine electibility are the head to head match ups to Bush.

[rucky]

58. 37% of Dems are working for Rove

n/t

[LSdemocrat]

47. It also says Bush 51 - Generic Dem 37

In other words, ALL the Dems are behind. It just shows we TONS of work to do in order to beat Bush.

[LSdemocrat]

51. May 1999 NH poll Bush 55 - Gore 35

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/05/05/president.2000/wmur.poll/index.html

Just goes to show a lot can change, there's plenty of time.

[maxanne]

55. a lot of people

are determined to be undecided until the last possible minute, here in NH.

I live in the north - and drive weekly to Concord, two hours to the southwest. I see a lot of political signs along the way - and all of them are for Dean. There is one giant Kerry sign in Moultonborough.
Oh - wait - 2 Clark signs went up in my area. One is in front of an abandoned building. There's a statement.

You underestimate how sick people here already are of calls - and how "live free or die" they are in their responses.

[cigarstore]

59. Howard Brush Dean will not be the nominee

The Clintons will simply not let it happen. I don't know what will do it or how it will be done but their "virtual" fingerprints will be on it.

12/11/03-Mark my words.

[LuminousX]

60. Clintons don't have that much power

[Snellius]

63. Depressing! But who would do better? Thus ....

Not to be defeatist, but if Dems do lose, the goals become who can best energize and reform the party for the future and who can do the most damage to the opposition on the way down.