Massive Economic Propoganda

[Beetwasher]

Be prepared to see an incredible amount of economic propoganda over the coming year to make it seem like the economy is doing just fine. Don't expect any REAL jobs to materialize though. Expect crowing about numbers from cooked books or just completely fabricated.

Bushco. is going to do it's damndest to create the illusion of an economy on the rebound, or even a booming economy, and they very well may succeed in getting people to believe that prosperity is just around the corner. Most people's eyes glaze over when you get into the details about the economy and with large portions of the media cheerleading and large headlines about a "strong economy" people may think that their new job is right around the corner.

Welcome to imperial America. Don't beleive none of what you hear and half of what you see.

[junker]

1. lou dobbs poll

take a look as of 7:24 am pdt the poll says 75%say 'what recovery?'

a really damn good indicator... most humans don't believe the govlies dept anymore.

http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/lou.dobbs.tonight/

[papau]

5. 127k jobs - but no comment on structural Deficit or decline in real wages

The decline in real wage growth and, more importantly, increased deficits that are now structural in nature, will destroy this economy - Bush must be replaced.

But our media can not even mention that 8.8 million remained unemployed last month, with about 2 million without jobs for 27 weeks or more

Job Watch -

On October 21, The New York Times reported that Treasury Secretary John Snow projected that the economy will generate two million additional jobs,about 200,000 per month, before next years election. This new numberis a huge retreat from the administrations previous projection made when it was selling its tax cuts. In February the Council of Economic Advisers projected 306,000 per month job growth starting in mid-2003 if the tax cuts were passed and roughly 228,000 jobs created per month without the tax cuts.

It takes 170,000 new jobs each month just to provide jobs for an expanding population and workforce and 300,000 new jobs each month to lower the unemployment rate by one percentage point over the course of a year. http://jobwatch.org/

So we got a "good" number -127,000 -but still increasing unemployed - as 127,000 does not cover population growth. Once military rotates back - if they rotate back with a lower reserve/guard call up - we may see a drop in "job creation"


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Technical information: Household data: [phone] USDL 03-675
http://www.bls.gov/cps/ Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release is http://www.bls.gov/ces/ embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST), Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, November 7, 2003.
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2003 -Employment rose in October, and the unemployment rate, at 6.0 percent, was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October,following a similar increase (as revised) in September. Job gains occurred inseveral service industries in October.Manufacturing employment continued to decline, but the rate of job loss has moderated in recent months.


Perhaps we should remind ourselves that in Feb 2003 the DOL changed all the seasonal adjustments - so anyone want to compare last year to this year?

From Feb 2003:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_notice02.htm Several major changes affect the Current Population Survey (household) dataThese include the use of new population controls that reflect Census 2000 results and new information about net migration, the use of new questions about race and Hispanic ethnicity, the introduction of new industry and occupation classifications, improvements in the seasonal adjustment processes, and the annual update of seasonal adjustment factors. For all data series, these changes affect the comparability of the anuary 2003 estimates with those for earlier months. Additional detail is provided in the release at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_notice02a.htm

Several major changes affect the Current Population Surveyhousehold) data Revisions and additions have been made to the A tables of theEmployment Situation. Several series have been affected by conceptual changes or new standards for presenting data. The changes are described in the release at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Last Modified Date: February 07, 2003

[Beetwasher]

15. Thanks, that's good stuff

n/t

[kentuck]

16. If this is true, how did the unemployment rate drop ?

"It takes 170,000 new jobs each month just to provide jobs for an expanding population and workforce and 300,000 new jobs each month to lower the unemployment rate by one percentage point over the course of a year. http://jobwatch.org/ "

===================================
126,000 jobs do not seem to be enough to keep up with expanding population??? Could someone please explain?

[SahaleArm]

19. Less people claimed unemployment.

The whole thing is a big sham, the refinancing money will dry up and then we can kiss this 'recovery' goodbye. I still expect a late winter (Q1-Q2) pullback in the market as well.

[kentuck]

23. So did they get a job or just dropped off the statistics?

They don't exist?

[Beetwasher]

24. I suspect that there was an uptick in employment

and a downturn in UE filing. However, these would be expected at this time of year.

People are hiring for the holiday season and if there wasn't a positive upturn in the labor market at this time of year things would be even worse than imaginable.

[Beetwasher]

7. That's Encouraging

I hope you're right and people don't buy into the propoganda.

[Say_What]

13. What Recovery? Still at 75% 9am west coast time

[Don_G]

2. They're All In On It

Elaine Chao (Sec of Labor & Wife of Mitch McConnell), Snow and Greenspan...and I thought the spin on Hurricane Isabel was bad!

[tom_paine]

3. Yes, we are truly entering the Soviet Phase of the Amerikan Empire

"Toilet Paper Production is up 600%, comrades!"

"Pay no attention to those 6 hour lines! They are isolated icidents or lies spread by our enemies to demoralize us!"

I always feared when this started to happen, when the very machinery of the State began endorsing the Soviet-style Bushevik lie.

When the truth stopped dribbling out even in local papers or in the back of the Style section.

It's begun...

[kentuck]

4. This is Reaganomics, voodoo economics all over again...

In the short run, there will be jobs created and numbers such as GDP will be hyped. They will say that it is all due to the tax cuts. But, when the truth is known, we will once again see that the taxcuts are really taax increases on the poor and middle class, in the form of higher property taxes, higher state taxes, higher taxes on necessities of life, etc. On top of that, there is the tax increase on everyone known as the deficit, which will remain at record highs.

We can ride the gravy train thru the next election, then reality will set in, just like it did with Reaganomics. It's all a sham. It Keynesianism Gone Wild.

[3CardMonte]

10. Whats gotten into Gephardt?

In regardes to tax cuts, what's happened to Gephardt? Ever since the 7.2% number came out he has been running around saying "the democrat supported tax cuts" were responsible for the growth. Yet for the entire year previous he has called the tax cuts "for Enron and give aways to the rich".

What the hell is happening?

[pretzel4gore]

22. it's US and THEM...

Gephardt's with THEM....

[CWebster]

6. Right. predictable

No surprise.

Can they sell it? They sold the war...well it didn't matter anyway, if they couldn't quite convince the world, they get what they want by hook or crook.

A few weeks ago I talked to some guy on the train from NYCity who worked for some media firm that provided financial and economic news for the big news outlets like the associated press. He said insiders knew that the horizon was bleak with no light at the end of the tunnel.

For what it's worth.

[kentuck]

8. So the unemployment rate should have gone up ?

Why didn't it? Is it possible that a large number of unemployed dropped off the unemployment rolls and are no longer counted as "unemployed"? Coupled with the 126,000 newly employed, this would cause a drop in the unemployment rate?

[Skittles]

9. yes, the lying is laughably transparent

it's all crap

[Armstead]

11. It's the same ol' crap as the 90's. The Dems must change.

I think we are probably seeing the beginning of an upswing in the economic cycle. And the GOP will spin it and try to divert attention from the darker undercurrents, just as the Democrats did during the Clinton recession.

The only way for the Democrats to truly challenge this is if they stop echoing the Allan Greenspan view of the world, and start addressing what has really been happening in the economy since the 70's. The erosion of the middle class, the growing wealth gap, the concentration of economic wealth and power, the rise of corporate monopolies, the scam of "free trade" and the other systemic rot that is affecting the poor, lower working class and increasingly the middle and upper middle classes.

[CWebster]

12. So, which of our candidates offers the most hope?

Or will it be a process of elimination?

Whomever the DLC backs is sure to follow in Clinton's footsteps.In the same way that symbols(confederate flag)are sold to Southern voters to vote against their economic interests, will a just as cynical image be sold, like the American flag and the military, to all Americans--Democrats as well as Republicans, to vote against their own best interests?

[Armstead]

17. Well...

Kucinich and Sharpton are the ones who are really addressing the core issues.

Dean is, sorta, and comes closest in terms of the "electable" mainstram candidates. I believe that accounts for a lot of his appeal. I just hope he continues walking the talk instead of doing a Clinton.

The rest....so far, although skirting the edges, they are refusing (or blind to) the real core issues involved in all of this. Corporate Populism isn't gonna do it.

[Mountainman]

14. The right wing pundits will say there is a recovery under way

and the sheeple will repeat it until it becomes the truth (not real truth but that doesn't matter)

I will be suprised to see if people repeat the lie or will they tell what is really happening in their personal lives.

[Grins]

18. Here's my response...

Here’s my response when I hear "financial wisdom", and the "everything is rosy" crap from the right wing:

"In the short term, it is difficult to guess what measures the administration will adopt in an effort to sustain the imbalances in the US economy: record budget deficits, record trade deficits, record low savings rates, (and) the property/refinancing bubble. If China and Japan do escape having to revalue their currencies against the Dollar over the next 12 months, they may have the administration’s need to fund the budget deficit – at low interest rates to thank for it.

When I hear financial crap from these morans, I mention the above then, I just scream the authors next paragraph at them (I memorized it):

"Over the longer term, however, the outlook is much more certain – THERE IS NOTHING!!!!! that can prevent the imbalances in the US economy from coming unwound. Not even the United States can continue going into debt to the rest of the world at the rate of (US) $1 million per minute forever. The Dollar Crisis has only just begun."

The key word that hit me was "CERTAIN", followed by his statement that there is not a damn thing we can do about it. Better have your financial plan ready.

My source for the above is one of their own: Richard Duncan, August 2003, a former Salomon banker, and World Bank staffer and author of The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003). David W. Tice & Associates, LLC
I think I first read it at CBS MarketWatch.com.

This agrees with much of Krugman's writing, and with many others. If this doesn't scare the crap out of everyone and condemn Bush and his policies, then we have no excuse for what is coming.

My other favorite quote is from Paul Erdman:
"I don't know how George W. goes about picking his secretaries of the Treasury, but I do know that he has come up with two duds in a row. The new one, John Snow, is even worse than the first one, whose name I have already forgotten."
Paul, it was Paul O'Neil.
Paul Erdman is an analyst for CBS MarketWatch.com. Take a look at the full story. He's practically shouting what a damn fool Snow is.
<http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=nwham&guid={53C9C182-FC6C-4198-9E24-162651E72989>

[Beetwasher]

20. Don't forget the record bankruptcies and home foreclosures

too!

I assume the effect of that has yet to be fully felt...

Great post!

[SahaleArm]

21. This news is already priced into the market.

Dow: 9,841.72 -15.25
Nasdaq: 1,979.30 +2.93
S&P: 1,056.19 -1.86

as of 9:40 am PST

I wonder how much of these figures are because people dropped off the unemployment lists? We've had three years of employment decline.

[VolcanoJen]

25. CNN just said "The jobless recovery is now an afterthought."

:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[Beetwasher]

26. The Uptick in the Labor Market Is Something that Happens

Every year at this time of year. Seasonal hiring for the holidays is happening.

The hullabaloo that's being made about it is despicable propoganda and wishful thinking. If there was NO uptick then THAT would be news...

[KFC]

27. There is no question the economy is rebounding

There is always an upturn after a recession, by definition. But this could turn out to be the case of "not getting worse" more than substantially "getting better".

[Beetwasher]

28. It's merely getting worse at a slower rate

People are still losing jobs, just not as fast...A leveling off would be expected...