I have a tough question to ask about the defeated Ohio reform initiatives

[WilliamPitt]

Right off the bat, I'd like anyone who can to jump up and down on me if I am wrong on this.

I am looking specifically at issues four and five:

* Four would create an independent panel to redraw the district lines for state lawmakers in time for the 2008 election;

* Five would strip the authority to run elections from the secretary of state's office.

I see these, personally, as pretty drastic over-reaches that likely helped to kill the whole slate.

Look, we all know what happened in Ohio, and we know the current SecState there is twenty pounds of shit in a ten pound bag. But the steps envisioned in issues four and five would not only strip the SecState office of its prime reason for existing, but would completely redefine which state reps represent which areas.

Perhaps, in a vaccum, these ideas have great merit. But I don't see the people of Ohio voting to basically emasculate one state office at the same time they'd vote to redraw the whole state's representative districts.

I think it was too much of a reach, and I am not surprised they failed.

(donning asbestos suit)

You can tell me how much of a bastard Blackwell is. You can tell me about gerrymandering. I know all about these.

My point does not dispute these facts. I am simply stating that the remedy prescribed by these ballot issues was too big a pill for Ohio to swallow all at once.

On edit: Some will likely say these issues failed because of Diebold or ES&S. I'd like to know what kinds of voting machines were used in what districts, and whether there were any reports of problems. I think we need to avoid yelling "Fraud!" every time we lose, unless we have good cause to do so.

(adding second asbestos layer)

[shoelace414]

1. what would be an appropriate small pill?

[WilliamPitt]

3. That's a damned good question

Perhaps a ballot initiative to ban privately-owned machines whose companies donate to political parties and candidates from being used in statewide elections.

[Ladyhawk]

31. That's a damned good answer.

In my mind there is still some doubt about election fraud, but I am suspicious enough to work toward getting rid of the machines. There have been far too many coincidences in past elections. At this point, it's not so much whether or not I believe elections were compromised, it's whether or not I can trust the system. If I can't trust the system, then the elections are already compromised.

[electropop]

2. I think Ohioans hate Blackwell

and voted to strip his powers. Blackwell overruled them (with the help of Diebold). Unfortunately, it may be impossible to get election reforms in OH without arresting Blackwell first. Hopefully we can get a Federal investigation after we flip the Congress next year (and get Bush impeached).

[Teaser]

4. It's nice to have a theory.

that you'll believe in spite of a total lack of evidence for that theory.

There are some job openings in Kansas, I hear.

[electropop]

5. And I've got a bridge in Brooklyn for you.

I'm glad OH turned out to your liking.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

8. Virginia had Diebold machines and we won.

Care to explain that one?

[Snotcicles]

13. Two different secretary's of state n/t

[electropop]

18. VA has an independent (more-or-less) Board of Elections

which is not run by a Secretary of State. Ohio has Blackwell.

[rainy]

20. There is not enough of those machines here yet! Va. Beach

largest city in the state just purchased 900 of the Diebold touch screen machines and plan to put them all to use next year. Northern Va. has some but Va. law is requiring Va. to switch by 2006. Then we will see the Dems start to lose again here.

[electropop]

22. Oh, Geez.

We have had optical-paper ballots in the Dulles area for decades, and I like them (at least they could in theory be audited). I hope we don't go paperless DRE!!!!

[darkmaestro019]

15. (points at electropop, mimes applause)

(gestures for the audience to bring it up/more) (applause)


Someday when we have a working economy and I can afford it, electropop, I'll have to buy you a drink. : )

[meisje]

6. Living in Ohio, I can tell you that people did not understand these issues

The Democratic Party did not really stand behind these issues and many Dems voted "no". I am not surprised as well.

[WilliamPitt]

7. Well, that's another problem

The groups pushing these reforms didn't get the state party on board?

Ouch.

[meisje]

9. And all of this BS about Diebold!

Diebold does not have machines in Franklin County(Columbus), a heavy Dem area and the issues were still voted down. Of course you don't have any proof of fraud and I guess none is needed here at DU.

[darkmaestro019]

17. I had no idea what on earth they were about, either--

I looked them up online and here for about an hour before we went and voted. I have been in FL for the last three weeks, so I missed whatever ruckus there was. However, I must say that my generally good grasp of human nature would say that people who didn't understand all the legalese--saw this as silly bureaucratic arguments and wouldn't bother to go out and vote on them.

However, if my first view of the issues had been the page after page of scroll on the Diebold fking machine, and I weren't me and likely to READ things, I'd have voted "no" maybe just to get it off the page. (shrug) But in places where not much else was being voted on, people who showed up had made an EFFORT to figure out wtf this business was about, and I find it hard to believe even Ohioans believe that politicians should choose their own districts, or that Blackwell is anything but a WHORE WHORE WHORE and a serious waste of protein.

I'm also rather befuddled by the late October poll numbers basically showing the OPPOSITE of what the final vote was--approx 65=35 in FAVOR, not against. Forgive me for not looking for the DU thread that discussed this. In one week or so of transparent "Nyuh uh!" the Repubs convinced two-thirds of broke, insurance-free, desparate Ohioans to believe them one more time? Even I have more faith in most people than THAT.

Paper ballots NOW. Hand counts NOW.

Blackwell in an orange fking jumpsuit, NOW.



EDIT: for large English failure : )

[LisaM]

10. I think stripping the SOS powers made it seem like a vendetta

Maybe they should just have voted to send Blackwell to jail!

And they definitely need to have voting machine companies completely separate from political donations.

[Botany]

11. A colleague of a my Dad's has been working on those issues for 20 +

years. His name is Herb Asher and he teaches @ OSU. His goal was
to try to bring about real change to the political system and to
make it non partisan. He was working on this when we had a democratic
governor, and two dem senators.

3 things happened

1. I think the way they were worded on the ballot hurt.
2. The same firm that did the swift boat ads .... worked
anti 2 - 5. "Tired of corruption in Ohio? Vote no on issues
2 3 4 & 5." That was one of their ads. Plenty of scaring and
plenty of lies.
3. Good old Ohio corruption was there again. In a night
when nationwide almost every democratic positive item was
winning .... Ohio went counter to that trend???????

Gov Taft has a 15 - 19% approval rating but the Issue he wanted
passed and the ones he was opposed to failed?

<Final Box Scores - Poll vs. Actual

Issue #1:
Poll: 53% YES, 27% NO, 20% Don't Know
Actual: 54.1% YES, 45.9% NO
YES was 1.1% off
----------------------------------------------------

Issue #2:
Poll: 59% YES, 33% NO, 9% Don't Know
Actual: 36.5% YES, 63.5% NO
YES was 22.5% off in favor of Blackwell

----------------------------------------------------
Issue #3:
Poll: 61% YES, 25% NO, 14% Don't Know
Actual: 33% YES, 67% NO

YES was 28% off in favor of Blackwell
----------------------------------------------------

Issue #4:
Poll: 31% YES, 45% NO, 25% Don't Know
Actual: 30.2% YES, 69.8% NO

YES was 0.8% off in favor of Blackwell
----------------------------------------------------

Issue #5:
Poll: 41% YES, 43% NO, 16% Don't Know
Actual: 29.8% YES, 70.2% NO

YES was 11.2% off in favor of Blackwell


Poll Link:
http://www.dispatch.com/election.php?story=dispatch/200...

Actual Link:
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/ElectionsVoter/Results20...

Funny how the poll was accurate in Issue#1 and TOTALLY off for all but one of the election reform issues 2 thru 5, huh?>

[sandnsea]

12. On four

My understanding is that it would have created an independent panel of 5, with 2 judges.

Yet, in California, it was 3 retired judges and was a horrible "Ahnold" idea.

They don't seem different to me. Was it partisan knee-jerking in California? Or was this just a bad idea, in Ohio & California.

:shrug:

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Ok the question on machines and where they were used

I am workign on the theory that none of the elections nation wide were clean.

I work with a very sinple DB almost every day, and the math formulas are used to set the values... if those are set on automatic, they will switch a percentage, and if you have a higher voter turn out will not work... if you have a bunch of NO... it will add to the turned over YES... and if this is automatic, we need to find it... not becuase of OH, but if they are doing this with all DBs nationwide...

That said I think these failed on their own, even if they might have had a little help... and it is in the ratio of failure.

[s-cubed]

16. Maybe Blackwell & Diebold did do something:

Will -

Here's a post by Botany giving the pre-election poll results vs the actual results. Now, I'm no statistician, and I don't know how many the poll takers interviewed or if they had a good random sample of Ohio voters, but the margin of error on the polls would have had to be extremely high to have such large discrepancies. I see two possibilities: 1) bad poll design or execution or 2) bad election. Maybe a statistician could look into the first, and then calculate the probability of the poll being so far off.

"Issues 2 & 3 were way up in the polls but lost by huge margins.
But the same poll had Issue 1 dead on.
Funny it was only the election reform issues that did not match the polls
kinda like exit polls last year in the presidential race.
Although I think in a way it is good .... it lays naked the level of
corruption in Ohio. Only a matter of time before Blackwell and
crew get outed.
Issue #1:
Poll: 53% YES, 27% NO, 20% Don't Know
Actual: 53.7% YES, 46.3% NO
Issue #2:
Poll: 59% YES, 33% NO, 9% Don't Know
Actual: 35.7% YES, 64.3% NO
Issue #3:
Poll: 61% YES, 25% NO, 14% Don't Know
Actual: 32% YES, 68% NO
Issue #4:
Poll: 31% YES, 45% NO, 25% Don't Know
Actual: 29% YES, 71% NO
Issue #5:
Poll: 41% YES, 43% NO, 16% Don't Know
Actual: 28.8% YES, 71.2% NO"

Link to Botany's post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2236061

[OzarkDem]

19. Where did these issues come from?

They sort of sprang up out of nowhere, without any discussion among Ohio Dems.

There were also some really weird commercials on the radio too that merged support of 2,3,4 & 5 with clips of Schwarzenegger endorsing Issue 4, whatever the hell that was. It made me very suspicious of this entire RON campaign.

[wakeme2008]

21. Florida is probably going to have three

ballot questions in 2006 for redistricting. It is being pushed by the Dems.

Unlike Gropinators there would be a panel of Dem/Repugs equal (as I remember) to do it BUT one covers that the districts will have to be as compact as possible.

All in all fair. The Ohio one sounds like the Florida three. But Gropinators was he was going to set up some retired judges and you had to trust them for the way they drew the districts.

[shoelace414]

24. letting republicans and democrats..

work together to make the districts doesn't work, it's only slightly less "corrupt" than the Texas power grab. since they work together to help each other to keep their jobs.

[wakeme2008]

28. You forgot the "compact districts"

that puts a big problem for them "working together".

[MojoXN]

23. I don't buy it, not for a fucking minute.

No offense, WilliamPitt, but I've spoken to SEVERAL Ohio voters today who said that the voting machines wouldn't accept their votes for Props 2,3,4, and 5 without a fight. The election was stolen, AGAIN, and no one seems to give much of a fuck. Jefferson County used Diebold machines, as did Belmont County, as far as I know.

Stolen American elections thus far = 4. 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2005. We're FUCKED if we don't do something about the partisan control of election equipment.

MojoXN

[Dogmudgeon]

25. A possibly flammable suggestion

Why not contact the Ohio Republican Party and ask them how they campaigned on it?

The Ohio Democratic Party might also be doing a post-mortem today; and if you know anybody who lives there, you could ask their opinions, too.

We all (well, most DUers) tend to dismiss the content of campaign advertising, but it may be more important than we like to admit. For instance, I think Forrester's last-minute mudstorm against Corzine turned a lot of undecided voters away from Forrester. The initiatives may have touched a sore nerve that worked to benefit the Republicans.

I'm not being a wiseass by suggesting talking to Ohio Republicans. I think that by hearing it straight from the "Elephant's mouth", you'll get a clearer idea of how the argument was framed. Of course, it may be difficult finding a Republican who trusts you enough to spill the beans!

--p!

[Lydia Leftcoast]

27. Advertising can have a huge effect

A few years ago, an ambitious but hugely underfunded initiative to institute single-payer health care in Oregon went down nearly 3 to 1. DLC types like to point at it as backup for their contention that Americans don't want single payer.

However, I knew several people who were for single payer in principle but who voted against the initiative anyway because of a rightwing ad campaign that said that indigent people from all over the country would flood the state to get free health care at the expense of Oregon taxpayers. If that argument persuaded people who were basically for single-payer, imagine the effect that it had on the "illegal immigrants are overrunning the state (but I still want to hire them for two dollars an hour)" crowd.

[WCGreen]

26. I posted this in another thread...

Three things..

First, The people who put the election reform issues together did not do their homework and line up and solid political support before te process started, while the process was underway and after the initiative was placed on the ballot. They mistakenly thought that everyone would flock to their cause simply because it was the right cause...

Second, who ever wrote the issues, needs to go back to law school... they were convoluted, un readable by common people and vague in their delivery... The key to understand this is that neither Blackwell or the Attorney General or any one in the general assembly questioned the initiative because they knew it would be defeated... Something written that is not understandable by the masses leaves the definition up to other sources... In other words, the backers of reform put their idea out there with no ability to explain or convince people that what they were doing was right...

Third, this is an off year election with no statewide candidates on the ballot... the interest level was very low out side of a couple of contested mayoral campaigns in a few cities scattered about Ohio... People were not going to turn out to vote yes or no for something they didn't understand...


So to sum it up, a complicated issue was presented to an indifferent population without the ability or the means for the people behind that issue to simply explain why anyone should vote for reform...

BTW, I voted for and supported the issues...


I agree with you Will about it being too much to swallow... The people who put the damn thing on the ballot were ill prepared to take it to the next step...

But here in Ohio, we like to run things up and down the flag pole over and over and over again just to see if it works... This will resurface with a lot of the bugs worked out...

I have always felt that these type of initiatives are better served in an even year election where these is a reason to go out and vote for something else... Others feel that off year elections are better... I think once again I am proven right in this case...

I firmly believe that it is easier, by far, to stir up people against an issue than to try and convince people that something is drastically wrong and needs fixin'..... Especially if there is no other reason to get out and vote...

It didn;t do well in Cuyahoga County and we still have punch cards... Sorry folks, no election fraud this time around...

[bud E. holly]

34. Agreed

Most of the people I know got all of their info on these issues from the competing TV ads. Both ad campaigns were slickly done and both touted REFORM. Neither were informative on the issues (impossible to explain properly in 60 sec anyway)and inspired confusion by design.

I bet that, if not lumped together and re-run in the next election as single issues, they would fair differently. Here in Lucas County, the Toledo Blade was focused on the Mayor's race. Today, however the numerous problems with the local election is the big story. Any well explained reform issue will get closer scrutiny next time.

[Mz Pip]

29. Redistricting measure

failed in CA and we cheered. Maybe it was different, but the same premise of putting an independent panel in charge of redistricting was in play.

Don'tknow what to make of this, really.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[Lexingtonian]

30. pretty much agree

I looked #4 and #5 over a couple of times and couldn't see the point to voting for either. Both were just retroactive attempts to undo the fact that Ohio was a one party state in 2002 and 2004. As it is the Ohio gerrymandering was clearly an overreach, spreading Republican voters too thinly in the name of grabbing too many seats, which could collapse/backfire remarkably fully next year- halfway through the gerrymander's intended lifetime. Overreaching gets punished, putting in some nanny judges to help a wildly stupid legislature save itself from itself or the voters (be that in Ohio or California) isn't going help matters much. As for more or less destroying the office of Secretary of State because fixing Ohio election law itself or getting a person of integrity in there is too hard, that was just plain stupidity in itself.

Questions 1 and 2 were reasonable, but one Ohio Democrat I argued with about it online said he didn't believe people should be able to vote in advance for no reason. He felt there was some kind of citizenship virtue to making people go to a polling place on one day and cast a vote in person. I don't quite get it, or rather it seems to me a nineteenth century notion imagined to be realistic in the world we live in now, but that's the frame a lot of political thinking I've seen from that region of the country has. The $10k contribution limit being brought down to $2k was probably the best idea of the four, but it will take a major scandal to drive the point involved home. So far 'Coingate' hasn't been understood as a campaign financing scheme by average people, it's been merely a money stealing operation in their eyes.

[Junkdrawer]

32. Final Box Scores - Poll vs. Actual

Issue #1:
Poll: 53% YES, 27% NO, 20% Don't Know
Actual: 54.1% YES, 45.9% NO
YES was 1.1% off
----------------------------------------------------

Issue #2:
Poll: 59% YES, 33% NO, 9% Don't Know
Actual: 36.5% YES, 63.5% NO
YES was 22.5% off in favor of Blackwell

----------------------------------------------------
Issue #3:
Poll: 61% YES, 25% NO, 14% Don't Know
Actual: 33% YES, 67% NO
YES was 28% off in favor of Blackwell
----------------------------------------------------

Issue #4:
Poll: 31% YES, 45% NO, 25% Don't Know
Actual: 30.2% YES, 69.8% NO
YES was 0.8% off in favor of Blackwell
----------------------------------------------------

Issue #5:
Poll: 41% YES, 43% NO, 16% Don't Know
Actual: 29.8% YES, 70.2% NO
YES was 11.2% off in favor of Blackwell


Poll Link:
http://www.dispatch.com/election.php?story=dispatch/2005/11/06/20051106-A4-03.html

Actual Link:
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/ElectionsVoter/Results2005.aspx

[eridani]

33. The margins were far too lopsided to be affected by fraud, IMO n/t

[Junkdrawer]

35. The margins were far too lopsided to be affected by *manual* fraud...

Give me a computer and I'll make the margins anything you want, especially if I control the audit.

[justiceischeap]

36. I agree with you Will on one point

and don't know enough about the rest to agree or disagree...

I think we too often yell fraud on DU without knowing the facts. (I'm now beginning to don my asbestos suit.) It makes us no better than the thugs in the WH who yell, "Terra, terra, terra!"

If everytime we lose an election or ballot initiative we yell fraud, when documented fraud occurs, who's gonna listen?

If you look at electoral history, it is rife with fraud. In the early 1900's, when there were paper ballots, men were encouraged to grow beards and their hair out so they could then be turned around after voting and sent to a barber, get a shave, vote, go back to the barber, get a haircut and vote again. There was an actual reason for the saying, "Vote early, vote often."

For years dead people have voted. Once we understand the institution of politics is corrupt at every level and accept that it is corrupt, only then can we work on ways to correct that, if we ever can. I don't see how we are ever going to take corruption out of politics. Not that I wouldn't want it to be a pristine endeavor, I just don't see how it can be done.