Latest Blog on Wilma from Wunderground - Says Models R Wrong

[stop the bleeding]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

I have watched this thing like a hawk and have noticed a definite turn to the north since last night. All of the local emergency management agencies are saying that people need about 36 hours to get out but they think that they(local emergency management agencies) have until saturday to make a decision based on the computer models. This could be very nasty for all of FL. Already I95 and I75 have been much more busy over the last few days so some people have already decided to leave, but there are still a lot and repeat A LOT of people that are waiting and seeing. Pasco county has about 170,000 people that can not evacuate due lack of transportation or age/condition, and i do not know what the stats are for the rest of the west coast counties but I am assuming they are high because some of them(Hillsborough, Pinellas, Sarasota, Manatee, Naples, F. Myers) have high densities of population. This is why it could get nasty. Sorry for the run on sentence, but I am at work and am trying to type very quickly.
I have already gotten all of the usual supplies and am ready to board up the hacienda and go stay with friends a few more miles inland. Will post periodic updates as the situation changes on this thread or another.

:hide: Waiting and watching - live about a mile from the water on the west coast of FL outside of Tampa :yoiks:

[acmejack]

1. Good luck and stay safe!

I lived in Tampa in the 70's & there was never a single hurricane in three years. Times certainly do change...

[NoBushSpokenHere]

2. A good hurricane cite and board is

http://www.hurricanecity.com

Look for the link on the right "Message Board" They discuss the predictions and most posters are very knowledgable regarding hurricanes.

[stop the bleeding]

5. Thanks, I was looking for something like this. n/t

[NoBushSpokenHere]

10. LOL at my spelling error.....need to drink coffee before posting n/t

[William769]

3. We are in Fort Myers

I have to admit so far Our local Government has been great.

[stop the bleeding]

4. Ours are pretty good also, but if they are basing their decisions

on the current forecasts and then end up waiting too long and with that many people in these highly populated areas that can not get out on their own, well it could get ugly, hopefully it won't but the point of my message is to let all floridians know that this thing may be here a little earlier.

How far are you from the coast?

[William769]

6. about two miles. And you?

[stop the bleeding]

11. I live about a half mile east of US 19 and about 1 mile from the coast

My spouses mother lives 1 block from the water on a place called Sunset Beach. We don't know what to do about her and the old guy that she takes care of :shrug: maybe shelters or other family members. We have already stocked piled batteries, candles, H2O, dry food, ect.. I have wood to put up yet if needed and if it does come this way we are going to stay with friends about 6-8 miles inland in a better location, but that is not even that great. These storms get so big and Florida has a funky geographical lay out that it makes it almost impossible to get out the way of these things.

Keeping an eye on the monster :eyes:Wilma

[BeFree]

15. We can only hope people heed your advice

IF... Wilma hits at just the right angle, and IF Wilma is strong enough, the human consequences will be as great, or greater than what happened in New Orleans.

Those are some big IF's.

If one could describe the situation as 'An Accident Waiting to Happen' one could rightly say that the west coast of Florida, from Egmont Key, north to New Port Richey, is that accident waiting to happen.

[stop the bleeding]

17. Sorry to be a doomsdayer but this is precisely why I posted this

if everyone(including local officials) base their decisions on the TV guys then this thing COULD be ugly. I don't know the exact numbers but the amount of people that live in the Tampa Bay area, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Manatee and Polk counties is probably 1-2 million people(don't know what Ft, Myers,Venice, and Naples is like, but probably similar if not worse due to the amount of retirees per capita per emergency worker). On normal days it takes people all sorts of time to get anywhere around here because the traffic/roads are so poorly planned, can't imagine what it would be like if there was a mass exodus north from all of those areas and this does not even take into the account of all of the people that are coming up from the extreme southern portion of the state.

[BeFree]

18. No apology needed

If it saves just one person from misery, either now in in the future, it is a good thing.

The area has not been tested by a storm of any magnitude in 70 some odd years. Just the trees which would be blown down will cause enormous damage, not to mention what a possible storm surge might do.

The authorities have been well aware of the possibilities but the enormity of it all is beyond their reach to be an effective force for alleviating those possibilities. Too many people, too close to the coast are what makes up the accident waiting to happen. I hope I never see it come to pass, it will be awful.

[A HERETIC I AM]

7. Both my brothers are in Ft. Myers and my mom is in Port Charlotte....

while i am up here in Newark on business for the weekend, unable to do much for them should they need it. My oldest brothers place is about 20 miles from the gulf so no storm surge to worry about but sheet flooding on his property is a concern.

Lets drop a few trillion pounds of ice into the gulf and take the energy out of this thing!

[stop the bleeding]

12. No doubt, my solution to things is pour a huge glass of ice water

into the center of the storms(s), did your mom do all right last year with Charlie?

[A HERETIC I AM]

19. Yes, she was fine last year.....

thanks for asking. The storm came ashore south of her and flattened Punta Gorda but because she was on the north side of the eye by about 20 miles or so, the winds were considerably lower than they were right down the road, so to speak.

She is about 5 or 6 miles from the nearest beach or bay but there is a boat canal that snakes all the way into her neighborhood so i am a little worried about it rising and spilling over, creating flooding on her street. She'll be ok though. (I hope and hope)

[Lorien]

8. Watching and waiting from Orlando too. I'm afraid that another hit in

our areas would take down a lot of the trees that were weakened by last year's three hurricanes that crossed the city. :scared:

[stop the bleeding]

14. Yeah Florida power came around our area this summer and did a lot

of trimming and cutting back branches that were too close to the wires. I think they learned last year that is less work and $ to prepare and than to react. The saddest thing about the trees is the old oaks it always break my heart when I see them all fallen over after these storms. To imagine that they have seen so much through their long lives and to die because the soil get to water logged and the combination of their size and wind just push them over. Such humbling way for an old tree to die.:(

[iwanmycntrybak]

9. Wilmas on the way!

I used to live in Cape Coral, FL from 1979 to 1999 and seen very few hurricanes. Not that way anymore. Just got this image in an email.

[stop the bleeding]

16. You know some crazy side of me keeps hearing Fred Flintstone

saying: WILMAAAAAAAAAAA! when I see this :rofl:. Its always good to have humor when times are tense.

[newyawker99]

24. Hi iwanmycntrybak!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Ilsa]

13. Hang on tight, DUer!

I hope you fdon't get the brunt of it, and i hope you make it to safer ground. :pals:

[flyarm]

20. heyyy stay safe..my place is on sand key..directly on gulf..

does it look bad for clearwater beach and sand key area??

i am up north and don't know what the word is actually in fla...

just stay safe get out..no house is worth life and limb..get out if they tell you to...

but i also don't trust the reports..last year on sand key we never got a evac from sand key ..and then all of a sudden they closed the bridges and left us stranded..i was terrified and spent 2 days in a bathroom as francis stalled over top of us...i was terrified...

in fact my wonderful friends online stayed up with me ..as i was able to keep computer up and running..i was all alone as hubby was traveling..the sounds of the wind are terrifiying...

please take no chances...get out ahead of time..i will pray for all my fla friends and statesmen/women!!
fly

[stop the bleeding]

21. It is very possible that it is coming here or around here, and judging

by its size it really doesn't make difference when your talking 50-70 miles. Here is one of the latest models.

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp

[flyarm]

22. ewwwwwwwww i do not like the blue line!!!

that blue model is not what i wanted to see...but wtf..i am not there so its only walls and mortar...its the human life.. thats what matters...
blue line is very populated area..why are they waiting so long to evac??
sunday as they are saying on tv news ..is too late...too many to move from the pinellas hillsboro area...

shaking head here....i am glad i am up north..will wait out my sourthern trec...for the winter...

ahhhhhhh these hurricanes...funny for years and years not much..and now catastrophic in numbers...

nooooooooo no global warning..just listen to rethugs...they know it all....my ass!

fly

[stop the bleeding]

23. That is what home owners insurance is for, even though mine doubled

from last year, but is still nothing compared to 1 life. The forecasters are relying on the fact that the storm will stay over the Yucatan for about 24-36 hours so all other emergency officials are waiting to make the mandatory orders based on this because they don't want people to move if they are not needed. It's a rough call, but if I was a local leader I would get on the local news and specify that people should leave if they can even though its not certain yet when and where exactly its going to hit, and explain to them that people that don't have a means to leave need to make concrete plans. ie: call local shelter/authorities, neighbors, friends or family, because it is these people that will have the worst of problems with dealing with situation. But now the officials are just waiting and seeing (Hillsborough, Pasco, and Sarasota Couinties have all ready issued state of emergency(s), interesting though I don't think Pinellas has, even though they have the worst nightmare situation. Must do some work if I can concentrate :argh:

Oh yeah, no global warming around here.