If Wilma makes a U-Turn like the models say, I'll eat my hat.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

That just does not look right to me. I'm guessing Pensacola if it holds together that long and I hope it doesn't.

[electron_blue]

1. I also thought that looked weird

Let's hope it just fizzles out, for everyone's sake.

[Up2Late]

2. I hope you're hungry then, because the storm track IS the one thing...

...they have gotten really good at predicting.

It's the storm intensity and rainfall amounts that they don't yet have down.

Here's the current 45 hour forecast (Cat4):

<>

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200524N_4H.html>

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

9. I really hope you are right and I'm wrong on this one.

They have been pretty good lately in their tracking.

[ewagner]

3. Here is a Java movie

of the steering winds at the 850mb level....



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html


as the intensity of the hurricane increases, the steering is determined at different levels of the atmosphere. I'm not a meteorologist but I lurk a lot here.http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=58906&Main=58630#Post58906...my son is a "met" and works with some of these same people.

[Retired AF Dem]

4. There is a strong cold front pushing through the south

on friday and should be in the Gulf Sat or Sun so it could keep Wilma from continuing north and turning the way the models show.

[rocktivity]

17. At least I now know why they BELIEVE it's going to turn.

Thanks for answering my question before I asked it!

:headbang:
rocknation

[arcos]

5. It has happened many times before...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_climo.html

[tinfoilinfor2005]

6. All the predictions I've heard tonight in the Keys

put it right over the top of us. We've already lined up a hotel on the mainland for inevitable the evacuation. Oh well, my suitcase is still in the hallway from the last time.

[Jacobin]

7. You might want some barbeque sauce with that

there is a big cold front coming down from the midwest which will more than likely make it go in a big easterly turn over the florida peninsula.

But then, my record on predicting these things suck.

I've eaten several hats of late

:-)

[AnnInLa]

11. Jacobin,

How'd you make it thru Rita? I'm sorry if you posted your Rita experience, and I didn't see it.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

13. LOL... There are a lot more people with a lot more smarts than me

saying it's going to boomerang.

It won't be the first time I've had a dinner of crow.. er, hat.

[Blue Belle]

8. The computer models have been pretty accurate so far...

I agree, it does look like a wonky sort of path, but I wouldn't take any chances.

[The Whiskey Priest]

10. My God! It’s the Arlen Specter Magic Bullet Hurricane

Then it did WHAT????

[carolinalady]

12. I think that is what they said in New Orleans, n/t

[Bernardo de La Paz]

14. Stock up on chocolate hats.

The early NHC maps had it aimed at New Orleans. They were amended to the current prediction. In these latitudes, the prevailing winds, especially in fall, are westerlies (from the west going east).

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

15. I'm beginning to think....

That one shouldn't offer to eat hats without doing a little research first...

:toast:

[spacelady]

20. Am I the only one that remembers all the wrongness of the early Katrina

predictions? Please tell me how they were so accurate. Anyone?

[spacelady]

16. Remember Katrina? Up until the Friday before it hit, all forecasters were

predicting this big EEEEERT right turn to hit in the Tampa area. I used this data to make the decision to visit New Orleans as planned on August 26th--we attended the Wheel of Fortune taping at the Convention Center Saturday the 27th. We got on I-10 at 6:00pm Saturday and they were just starting to divert traffic. So anyway, it just doesn't pay to rely on the models.

I wonder if I can sell my VIP passes on ebay for funds to help the victims?

[spooked]

18. Wilma's Barometric Pressure Worse than Katrina?

Is it a bad sign that Hurricane Wilma's Barometric Pressure is lower (worse) than Hurricane Katrina's when you compare them at 80 MPH?


TRACKING INFORMATION FOR HURRICANE WILMA

Here are the Numbers for Miles Per Hour and Barometric Pressure

21 GMT 10/15/05 17.6N 78.8W 30 1004 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/16/05 17.0N 79.0W 30 1003 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 10/16/05 17.0N 79.3W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 10/16/05 17.1N 79.3W 35 1002 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 10/16/05 17.7N 79.6W 35 1001 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/17/05 17.6N 79.7W 35 1001 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 10/17/05 17.2N 79.7W 40 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/17/05 16.3N 80.0W 45 998 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/17/05 15.8N 79.9W 50 989 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/18/05 15.8N 80.2W 65 987 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/18/05 15.7N 80.0W 70 982 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/18/05 16.5N 80.6W 75 977 Category 1
21 GMT 10/18/05 16.7N 81.5W 80 970 Category 1


TRACKING INFORMATION FOR HURRICANE KATRINA

Here are the Numbers for Miles Per Hour and Barometric Pressure

21 GMT 08/23/05 23.2N 75.5W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/24/05 23.4N 76.0W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/24/05 24.0N 76.4W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/24/05 24.7N 76.7W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/24/05 25.6N 77.2W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/25/05 26.0N 78.0W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/25/05 26.2N 78.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/25/05 26.2N 79.3W 60 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/25/05 26.1N 79.9W 75 985 Category 1
03 GMT 08/26/05 25.5N 80.7W 75 984 Category 1
09 GMT 08/26/05 25.3N 81.5W 75 987 Category 1
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 75 981 Category 1
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 80 981 Category 1


http://www.weatherunderground.com/hurricane/at200524.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200512.asp

[Quixote1818]

19. I think the models are right on

They are calculating the storm moving into the Westerlies which are currently blowing right through that area. The storm will most certainly make a hard right once it hits those winds. Count on it.

[spacelady]

21. Tilting at windmills. Predictions at this point are worthless.

case in point: Katrina

[Quixote1818]

22. Hey Sancho, the models for Katrina nailed the landing within 50 miles

way before it started to turn. I looked at the maps every day and most of the models had it hitting right near New Orleans however some had it hitting as far West as Texas and as far east as Florida. Weighted with all the predictions New Orleans was the bulls eye however it ended up hitting just to the east of New Orleans. NOAA has been extremely accurate at predicting the storm tracks within a weeks time give or take 50 or 75 miles either way.

[spacelady]

23. I still say the Rocinante was headed WAY east to the Florida area

according to the meteorologists in south Alabama as late as Thursday and so was Katrina. HA!

[Mojorabbit]

24. there won't be a good fix

until at least three days out.