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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:04 AM
Original message
Why can the military stockpile 20 million doses of H5N1 avian flu vaccine..
Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 10:37 AM by NNN0LHI
...for the troops and some chosen others in case we have an epidemic but Bush can't give a presidential order in the name of national security and start stockpiling 250 million doses of this vaccine for all of us when they begin production? All it would require is a stroke of the pen to do it. I thought his number one job was protecting Americans?

Instead he tells us to read a book about a 1918 pandemic that reads like a Stephen King novel written about a time when no vaccine for influenza was available. And then suggests his answer to a pandemic if we have one is going to be to call out the military on us. And the military won't get sick because they are vaccinated.

And is it asking too much for the Dem's (who you can be assured are all going to get this vaccination if needed) to go on cable news and point this out to the American people?

Don

http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=32221

Military taking steps to guard against avian flu

<snip>The Defense Department, which does not have to undergo the same Food and Drug Administration testing system, already has an experimental vaccine and has begun its own testing, according to Marianne Coates, a defense department health official.

She said Pentagon officials are working to eventually stockpile between 2 million and 20 million doses of the vaccine for military use. Winkenwerder said that would only be used in the event of an outbreak.

While unusual for humans to contract the avian flu, the virus seems to be spread through exposure to sick birds, bird feces, uncooked poultry and contaminated surfaces. The virus has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of chickens, ducks and geese across Asia and might have been discovered in birds in Turkey over the weekend.

DOD ordered combatant commands to develop emergency plans akin to those developed when Pacific Command faced the occurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003.


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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:05 AM
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
3. add all the government workers, congresspersons and their families?
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. as a sometimes govt worker I am certain Govt workers
will NOT be in that count. Some hand-picked political appointees, fer sure, but not the non-pol types.
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #4
36. And definitely not the Democrat types, either ... n/t
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #3
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
6. Maybe they are planning on expanding the forces?
Hell if people get scared enough they would probably not even get too upset about a draft.

Don
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #6
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:21 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. There is a turnover in the military. The numbers are never static n/t
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MildyRules Donating Member (739 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Not enough to account for 20 million people.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. So quibble with DoD then. Its their number not mine
Its not enough for 250 million Americans therefore that is the important number here anyway. Why is that? Any ideas?

Don
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MildyRules Donating Member (739 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. I'm just asking why 20M
Same as you.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. No I am asking why NOT 250 million doses? n/t
Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 10:39 AM by NNN0LHI
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-14-05 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #7
62. Gosh what did I miss here? n/t
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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
37. The article says military AND family members.
Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 05:11 PM by Skwmom
I think it would be really hard to provide it to a soldier and exclude family members (big morale buster).
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Hobarticus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. Setting the stage for martial law....
If only the military has vaccines...well, then the military's running the show.
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. they are the military with their own set of rules.
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MsConduct Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
11. Maybe it's for the 20 million who contributed to his campaign?
:sarcasm:
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kestrel91316 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
13. All Bush cares about is his base: the Have Mores. All the rest of us
Little People can just f---ing die for all he cares.

Wonder who's going to mop their floors and clean their toilets after all the Little People die???
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Bridget Burke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:47 AM
Response to Original message
15. It's an "experimental" vaccine.
As your snip explains, the DOD doesn't have to follow the FDA "rules." Even the rules of today's toothless FDA. Sounds like they're using our soldiers as lab rats.

Given the probability of continued mutation, any "stockpiled" vaccine will probably be worth squat.

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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Yea sure. People start dropping dead from H5N1 I will take my chances...
Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 11:01 AM by NNN0LHI
...with the "experimental" vaccine thank you very much. If you are not interested fine. I have no problem with that. We just order one less dose. I am not suggesting forcing people to take it. Far from it. I would be against forcing people to take anything. Fair enough?

Don
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Bridget Burke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. But that's not going to happen.
You have repeatedly denied any threat from Avian Flu whatsoever.

It's just a government plot!
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. Though I never said that I will play your game anyway just for fun
I have changed my mind I have become very scared now. I want my avian flu shot. And I don't want some hustler for a drug company or internet Tamiflu salesman, or any other snake oil traffickers telling me any different either. By the way where did all the bird flu experts go? Any ideas?

Don

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Bridget Burke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. The experts got a bit tired of bashing their heads against brick walls....
Modern medical science makes the flu less of a threat; besides, most people die from secondary infections:

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=5030190#5030513

Besides, only 30 people per year die from Bird Flu. (And if your Father gets pneumonia every year, why don't you check into the anti-pneumonia vaccine?):

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=5030190#5030819

If they didn't cancel the World Series, the 1918-19 Pandemic must not have amounted to much:

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=5034466


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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Especially when someone comes up with a solution rather than fear mongering
You like that fear don't you?

Don
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Bridget Burke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Our "experts" have repeatedly come up with steps...
To deal with a possible pandemic. Some of the steps actually involve trying to prevent it.

Concern is not "fear mongering."

Glad you trust the DOD!
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. The way you been stalking me around this board I am starting to think...
...you love me. </blush>

Don
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Ladyinblack Donating Member (127 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-14-05 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #24
66. Bush appointed a lawyer with no health care experience
Once again Bush has made an appointment to a high office with disregard for ability. Stewart Simonson has no health care experience. He is a lawyer. We have another "Brownie" in a high position that could effect all of us. This man who is enjoying political payback at our expense could be making life and death decisions.
Bush's main concern seems to be can he use the army. He loves playing army as long as he is not the one taking risk. Maybe would should buy him a set of play solders.

He just drives me nuts.
I am writing my Senator. This is just crazy and someone needs to stop him. You would think he has done so much damage that even his party would be up in arms.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-15-05 08:56 AM
Response to Reply #66
67. If you get a response from your senator lets us know what he says
If you don't mind? I am really curious what they have to say about this. Thanks in advance. And welcome to DU.

Don
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
19. I heard on Cspan that it would take 10 years to make and stockpile
enough for even 20% of the population, even if all the vaccine makers worked full out. And in the meantime, while stockpiling, none could be given out.

This was someone speaking for the WHO. It sounds pretty hopeless.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Well then it would only make sense that they would go full out today
Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 11:41 AM by NNN0LHI
Wouldn't it? But they are not going full out today and no one is calling for them to go at it full out today either. Doesn't that bother you if the threat is as serious as they tell us it is? It troubles me.

I mean we have vaccine making facilities in the US sitting idle because the drug companies are worried about being sued according to Bush. I am sure that little problem can be worked out in short order with a presidential order.

And was that C-Span figure for the US population or the world population?

Don
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. yes indeed--I also heard on c-span that the best use of the military
in a pandemic was to pull all the military scienteists off their current assignments and get them moving full tilt on a Manhattan Project to develop and manufacture flu vaccine. Sounds good to me!
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Taxloss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 02:52 PM
Response to Original message
26. There is no vaccine for H5N1.
It hasn't mutated into a human-to-human version. You can't develop a vaccine for something that doesn't exist.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. Why would they begin testing a vaccine for a flu it won't work on?
<snip>The Defense Department, which does not have to undergo the same Food and Drug Administration testing system, already has an experimental vaccine and has begun its own testing, according to Marianne Coates, a defense department health official.

She said Pentagon officials are working to eventually stockpile between 2 million and 20 million doses of the vaccine for military use. Winkenwerder said that would only be used in the event of an outbreak.

While unusual for humans to contract the avian flu, the virus seems to be spread through exposure to sick birds, bird feces, uncooked poultry and contaminated surfaces. The virus has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of chickens, ducks and geese across Asia and might have been discovered in birds in Turkey over the weekend.

DOD ordered combatant commands to develop emergency plans akin to those developed when Pacific Command faced the occurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003.
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Taxloss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. But it's not known what the makeup of a pandemic strain will be.
This must be a stockpile for an existing strain that is being held in the hope it will be effective.
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. it's a strain from 2003, I believe
one birds can give to humans. Whether it would be useful against the human-to-human strain that hasn't emerged yet is anybody's guess. There are scientists working on ways to manufacture vaccines in cell cultures instead in eggs to speed up production, but that's long-term research; unlikely to help us if H5N1 blows up into a human pandemic in the next year or so.

Pandemics tend to come in waves, with a respite in between. In 1918, it was the second wave that was the deadliest. If we could go all out on vaccine production when the first highly contagious H2H cases start, we might have enough vaccine to lessen the impact of the subsequent waves of the pandemic.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. But you said there is no vaccine for H5N1 above
Now you are saying that there must be an existing stockpile for a strain that is being held in the hope it will be effective. (Effective enough to make a vaccine that will work on H5N1 I presume?)

Can both of those statements be true? I suppose in an abstract way yes?

But these scientists must have a pretty good idea that what they are doing will work on H5N1 or why go through the motions?

And all my point is wouldn't it be a lot more helpful to all of us had Bush came out last week and said we are on top of this avian flu problem and have a possible vaccine in the works right now so you all relax until we have it available for everyone? Instead we get the gloom and doom crap and get told to read a 500 page book. And then has to add in he may have to call the Army in to control us all when we panic after he gets done terrorizing everyone.

I mean there really isn't much any of us can do about this problem. But this ramping up the fear that Bush continues to do is not going to do any of us any good. Is it?

Do you see my point here?

Don
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Taxloss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 08:10 PM
Response to Reply #31
57. The fact is, there WILL be a pandemic.
Maybe not this year, maybe not next year. Maybe not for decades. But the flu virus is incredibly adaptable. It mutates all the time. Each mutation is like dice being rolled, and if it comes up double-one we get an airborne, human-to-human transmissable mutation of H5N1. At the moment, there is something of an epidemic of avian H5N1. The more birds that contract H5N1, the more dice that are being rolled, and the likelihood of a very worrying mutation is hugely increased.

So if pandemic H5N1 was an individual, we'd know its family name but not its first name. The first name hasn't even been chosen. And that's not enough to develop a vaccine.

Although I'm happy to admit that there is a lot of media hysteria around bird flu, it is right to be concerned and I do not feel it is politically motivated (but elements of the response might be). We have been lucky for a long time. Periodic pandemics are a nigh-inevitable byproduct of human existence, regardless of our technological level. In fact, our more interconnected world makes a pandemic even more likely.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #57
61. Then everything possible to mitigate a pandemic should be done now
Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 09:47 PM by NNN0LHI
If the military currently has a vaccine that they believe will be effective if/when/whatever the pandemic begins it should be available in enough quantity for all of us as soon as possible.

Then when a new and improved replacement vaccine if even needed is found they can switch over production to that when that time comes.

Doesn't seem like that is asking too much.

Don
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
29. actually, it may not be as many doses as they think...
if memory serves, that 20 million assumes that a single small dose will be sufficient, while some of the ongoing trials indicate that two larger doses might be necessary for adequate protection, so they really only have about 2 million doses stockpiled. And the virus continues to mutate, so what they've got stockpiled may not do jack against the strain of H5N1 that makes the jump to being readily transmissible among humans.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. Then they should be opening up the facilities that produce vaccines...
...here in the USA that the drug companies won't open because they are worried about getting sued and start running batch's of these vaccines that may work until they have something better. Bush should order that be done right now.

Just having the production facilities up and running and manned with employees could shave months off an initial production run saving many lives. As it stands right now the drug companies here won't even consider making vaccines. Now is not the time to be worried about lawsuits if millions of lives are at risk. Don't you agree?

Don
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. actually, they had a report on NPR a few mornings ago
and lawsuits aren't that big an obstacle; profits are. Vaccines just aren't big moneymakers. I agree that Bush should do some arm-twisting and get manufacturers ready to make a heroic effort to crank out vaccine. There was a meeting at the White House just last week between Bush and several vaccine manufacturers. Whether that was anything more than window dressing remains to be seen.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. So bottom line here is that the real threat is not H5N1
The real threat we are talking about here is low profits for drug companies and the politicians on their payroll.

Don
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Obamanaut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 04:25 PM
Response to Original message
35. I have my plan...
My plan is to avoid sick birds, cook the healthy ones, clean all my counter tops and not to to DC - thus bypassing the fourth item - chicken chit. (I meant to spell it that way.)



From the OP "While unusual for humans to contract the avian flu, the virus seems to be spread through exposure to sick birds, bird feces, uncooked poultry and contaminated surfaces."
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #35
39. usnret88, at the moment that is the case,
and for as long as it is the case, we don't have a problem. It is when it combines with the human influenza virus and you can catch it by sitting next to someone who has it that it becomes serious. Imagine if, out of everyone who caught the flu last year, 1/4 to 1/2 died?

This is the scenario that the UN and countries all are concerned about. Here in Australia a H5N1 vaccine is currently being tested on human volunteers and CSL Limited is set up in Melbourne to produce enough of the vaccine in 3 months to provide 2 doses each for everybody in Australia. Norway has also ordered enough vaccine for its whole population, and other governments all over the worls are stocking up on anti-virals.

As for the probablity of the present virus mutating in this matter, it's inevitable now, the only question is when. The danger is not lessened by the fact that the recombining has been done in both America and Australia now in order to begin vaccine production, and the 1918 virus (also a deadly bird-flu) has been reactivated and played with, and its genetic recipe published on the net.

So the deadly, recombined virus is now in the hands of the American Military, and Bush is in trouble. Is there anyone here who thinks he would not use it if he thinks it's to his benefit to do so?
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. one thing about that "deadly recombined virus"
its descendants have been circulating among the human population since 1918. (Remember the Swine Flu scare back in '77? That was an H1N1 descendant.) Heck, one of its descendants is in this year's regular flu shot. It wouldn't be good it if got out, but it probably isn't a Doomsday Scenario, either.
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #40
44. gk, I'm talking about the recombined H5N1 virus.
To make the vaccines currently being tested by CSL and the military, the H5N1 virus had to first be combined with the most common currently circulating influenza virus. The vaccine is made from the antibodies produced by the reaction of chicken embryos to injections into the egg of the recombined vaccine.

So now fear has brought what we fear into existance. This is not said to pass judgement on anyone, it's just fact.
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #44
47. I don't remember seeing this in the NIH report
do you have a link handy?
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #47
50. What info exactly would you like linked?
I've been reading hundreds of articles on what's happening in regard to the virus and making the vaccines, but if you tell me just what info you want verified I'll try to help.
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-14-05 02:16 PM
Response to Reply #50
64. found the reference I wanted; thanks. n/t
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:07 PM
Response to Original message
38. it wont exactly be H5N1 any longer, rather a H5N1-hybrid
which will have genes of both the bird AND human strain,
any vaccine developed beforehand will very likely be worthless.
anyways..
from what i have read every chicken in hong kong is currently vaccinated and tested regularly. i wonder how many chickens that is!



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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. Hong Kong is no t the problem, they have the money to deal with it.
But the virus is infecting birds all over Asia now, and in many other parts of the world. The Chinese government can't really do anything in such a vast country, so it just tries to cover up the situation instead. Thailand has stopped destroying infected chickens because it has become so widespread there it can no longer afford to.

Vaccinating chickens could even lead to greater problems, encouraging a strain to emerge that is resistant to the vaccine.
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:25 PM
Response to Reply #41
42. agreed that Hong Kong isn't the problem.
It's the wild waterfowl in the Danube delta that will be dispersing in nineteen different directions for the winter. :scared:
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #42
48. No, the problem is one sneeze
in a busy place from someone who has handled a sick bird while they have the flu, and the 2 viruses have combined in that person's cells to form a bird flu that transmits like a human flu.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #38
43. Why are they preparing to stockpile 20 million doses if it is worthless?
Any ideas?

Don
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #43
45. Don, you'd better put your tin hat on before you listen to this idea.
If the government is planning to spread it, then the government knows exactly what vaccine it is likely to need.

There is no guarantee, even then, that it won't quickly evolve into another form, but we can't expect the ant-evolution neocons to comprehend that.
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. it's the best thing they have right now *and* it would be useful for
a) health care workers who come in repeated close contact with infected patients and

b) people culling (slaughtering) birds. When infected birds are detected at a poultry farm, they kill all of the birds and disinfect the facility.

Some people have been infected while culling birds and it appears that a few cases of limited human-to-human transmission have taken place when someone was taking care of someone who was already ill. Those are two instances where the current vaccine would definitely be of use, although only to a limited portion of the population.
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #46
49. Yes, the vaccine will be useful,
and properly used, in a worst-case scenario, could save millions of lives.

But tell me, would you trust Bush with the highly infective recombinant H5N1 virus, which had to be made before the vaccine was produced, if he knows he can vaccinate anyone he wants first?

Back a vicious animal into a corner, and it can become unexpectedly dangerous.
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-14-05 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #49
63. I don't trust Bush. Period. This is news? n/t
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #46
51. But these 20 million doses are being made for the military & their families
That is what the article states. Its not being manufactured for health care workers or chicken farm workers so that really doesn't explain it I don't think.

Still seems to me the best way to go would be to get on with making enough for every American and then we can go from there.

Don
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #51
52. Making the vaccine costs a lot of money.
Can you point to anyone in America who has the prerequisite power or money to get anything done, who is going to give a damn about "every American"?

Sorry, but this government is far more likely to infect than to protect.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #52
54. Trillions in tax cuts for the wealthy, hundreds of billions for wars, and..
...we can't have whatever money is needed to save perhaps millions of American lives? But we can have Bush declare martial law and have the army in our streets to keep us in line at the barrel of a gun? I think we need some new politicians. And I need a drink.

Don
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 08:23 PM
Response to Reply #54
58. Cheers :-)
Your drink will do you more good than any politician will.

:toast:
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #43
53. because no one can see the future so they are gambling.
a group of genetic engineers alter H5N1 to what they assume the hybrid will become, and make a vaccine from that version.
this is what the US has ordered and not other western countires as of yet. and the vaccine creators themselves admit theres no way to garuntee this approach will work due to the inability to see exactly what the theoretical future strain actually looks like.
its a high tech guesstimate.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #53
55. Exactly. So lets gamble a couple hundred million more doses and hope...
...for the best. I am game. If that doesn't work it will be nothing from nothing and they can start the process all over again. At the very least the production capability will be up and running already and no time will be lost doing that. Because if people are already dying time is important. So I say lets go for it. And the sooner the better.

Don
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. im with ya on that.. lets do it up!
especially the production capability part =)
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Kailassa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
59. If anyone is interested,
I've been working out a way we can each treat this ourselves, if it does happen. It means getting relatively inexpensive things beforehand, just in case, but is not a big outlay. Using my method would not interfere with any vaccine or medical treatment, so there is no need to make a choice. But this stuff can be got with no help from government or drug companies.

Normal influenza can infects all the moist body surfaces, but Avian Influenza seems to only infect the villi inside the lungs. This makes it vulnerable to any inhaled anti-viral. My suggestion is a non-plastic atomiser filled with a Tea-tree based solution:
1 part pure Tea-tree oil
3 parts vodka or medicinal alcohol
6 parts boiled water.

This could be conveniently carried at all times, and used easily. If you were extremely worried, you could put your face inside your t-shirt and puff this inside your shirt, to get a good lungful.

The point of having something on you if bird-flu does start going around in the area you are in, is that the 1918 version could kill in 4 hours, there might not be time to get help after you were infected.

Many of the 1918 victims died of their own inflamatory response to the flu, the healthiest being the worst hit, killed by their own strong immune systems. The Tea-tree oil helps counteract this problem too, as it is an anti-inflamatory. Vitamin C and E and B5 also have powerful anti-inflamatory effects, and large doses of ascorbic acid and cod-liver oil given within a few hours of feeling unwell are also very helpful in fighting flu bugs off.

This site also has good info:
http://www.healthy.net/asp/templates/Article.asp?Id=193...
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paineinthearse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-05 09:11 PM
Response to Original message
60. From Monday: "Roche and its lobbying group resist compulsory licensing..."
Edited on Thu Oct-13-05 09:12 PM by paineinthearse
"Roche and its lobbying group resist compulsory licensing of Tamiflu"

See http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5031024
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-14-05 09:12 PM
Response to Original message
65. Some info about another avian flu vaccine currently being tested
Edited on Fri Oct-14-05 09:27 PM by NNN0LHI
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Healthology/story?id=1203161

Avian Flu Vaccine Offers Hope Coupled With Questions

It seems effective, but immunity requires two shots and a longer time to take effect, researchers say.

TUESDAY, Oct. 11 (HealthDay News) — While initial testing of an avian flu vaccine shows promise and trials should be completed by the end of the year, questions remain about the vaccine's ability to protect large numbers of people, U.S. researchers say.

Among the potential problems: The vaccine dose needs to be much higher than that given for other types of flu, according to Dr. John Treanor, a professor of medicine and associate professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry.

"It seems to be a characteristic of the H5 vaccines that they require a higher dose to illicit an immune response than some other vaccines do. Dose-related immune responses are being tested to get a feeling for what dose would be required. And then we need to see if anything could be done so lower doses could be used," said Treanor, who is the principal investigator of the vaccine tests being done at the University of Rochester.

The trials, under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, are also being conducted at the University of Maryland School of Medicine and the University of California, Los Angeles.

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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-15-05 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
68. India is going to market a cheap plentiful Tamiflu early next year
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/subcontinent/2005/October/subcontinent_October534.xml§ion=subcontinent&col=

Indian company says it can bring generic version of bird flu drug to market in early 2006

BOMBAY, India -- A major Indian pharmaceutical company has said it plans to bring a generic version of the anti-influenza drug Tamiflu to market early next year, thus filling any potential shortages in the event of a bird flu epidemic.

The drug is already in short supply following fears of a possible epidemic. But the Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding AG, which makes Tamiflu, has refused to license generic versions of the drug despite pressure from several countries and United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Dr. Yusuf K. Hamied, chairman of Cipla Ltd., said Friday that his company has already developed the generic version, oseltamivir, which would be much cheaper than Tamiflu — the only available drug that is effective in treatment of people infected with bird flu.

“We have been able to synthesize it. Once the lab work is done things don’t take too long,” Hamied said in a telephone interview from Spain, where he was attending an international symposium on AIDS. “We are in the process of scaling up and commercialization. That should be completed next month.”

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-15-05 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
69. Not everyone agrees this flu mutation is inevitable...

<snip>

Don't Worry, Be Healthy
Fear is more likely to get you than the avian flu.
By Marc Siegel
Posted Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2005, at 9:39 AM PT

...


Yet the science behind all the worry is questionable. It rests on the unproven claim that the avian flu will develop exactly like the strain that caused the flu pandemic of 1918. A March 2004 article in Science showed that the 1918 flu—which infected close to a billion people and killed 50 million or more—made the jump from birds to humans through a slight change in the structure of its hemagglutinins, the molecules by which the virus attaches itself to body cells. This mutation allowed the virus to kill more World War I soldiers than weapons did, effectively ending the war when forces on both sides became too sick to fight.

The current bird flu, however, has a different molecular structure than the 1918 bug. And though it has infected millions of birds, there is no direct evidence that it is about to mutate into a form that would transmit from human to human. In isolated cases, food handlers in Asia have gotten sick, but that doesn't mean that a wildly lethal mutation is about to occur. As Wendy Orent points out in the New Republic, diseases that come from animals are often hard for humans to transmit. They lack the "essential characteristics" of virulent human infections—they're not durable, or waterborne, or carried by hospital workers, or transmitted sexually.

Even if the worst-case scenario does occur and the virus mutates, there is no current indication that it will spread the way the Spanish flu did in 1918. That disease incubated in the World War I trenches before it spread across the world, infecting soldiers who were exhausted, packed together in trenches, and lacked access to hygiene. These conditions were an essential breeding ground for the virus. Today, there is no way a huge number of people would be packed together in WWI-like conditions. Also, technology allows doctors to diagnose and isolate flu patients far more effectively.

<snip>




http://www.slate.com/id/2126233/
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-16-05 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #69
72. You are right. Its had 8 years to mutate into a killer
Some experts believe if it hasn't done so already it may not be capable of doing so. But I never hear the media or Bush mention that.

Don
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-16-05 01:13 PM
Response to Original message
70. Kicking for some answers n/t
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-16-05 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
71. Strange how people continue to post their own bird flu "scare threads"....
...but never seem to notice this one? Hmmmm.

Don
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-16-05 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #71
73. Not scary enough!
nt

There is reason for vigilence...but not presenting all opinions is not responsible IMO
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-16-05 07:24 PM
Response to Original message
74. ((((PING)))) for those who keep saying there is no vaccine n/t
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-17-05 07:00 AM
Response to Original message
75. kick
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