AccuWeather Forecast Versus NHC (NHC forecast "virtually useless")

[A-Possum]

AccuWeather Forecast Versus NHC
Thursday, September 22, 2005 6:04 PM EDT

The awesome power of nature will be in full display as Rita heads toward the Gulf Coast Friday night into Saturday. The graphic above shows the huge extent of the powerful winds of Rita as forecast by AccuWeather.com meteorologists.

The graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows much less confidence in the storm's impact. This product is designed to be used by government and emergency management officials. Their forecast is for less than a 50% chance of hurricane force winds along the coast of northeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. AccuWeather feels this forecast is virtually useless.

That's about as low and ugly as it gets. And completely misleading, as the NHC has released numerous forecasts of hurricane force winds in this area.

Just what we need, privatized, politically motivated weather forecasting. Wonderful

[halobeam]

1. They can try to sell this BS to us, but Frist should know we know better

[Gman]

2. Santorum's staffers probably wrote this

where will it all end and how bad will the final damage toll be? Not Rita, but the aftermath of The Coup Of 2000.

[LifeDuringWartime]

3. re: santorum

i was just about to make a comment about Santorum's ridiculous weather bill.

[KnaveRupe]

4. see also: Santorum, Rick (R - PA)

Ricky "man-on-dog" Santorum wants to prohibit the public from accessing the National Weather Service data directly - instead you'd have to rely on a private company like .... wait for it... Accuweather!! Coincidentally, AccuWeather is based in State College, PA and was a Santorum Campaign contributor. Who'da thunk?!

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05126/499873.stm

http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/219-05052005-485185.html

Just another reason to loathe the third Senator from the great state of Virginia. As if we needed extras.

[osaMABUSh]

17. AW founded by Penn State grads - Santorum's alma mater

There is a definite buddy-buddy deal with Accuweather and Santorum - both have Penn State roots. Now I'm not dissing Penn State as I am an alum too who bleeds blue and white. But I just wanted to point out the connection.

Yes, I know, I know, beloved Joe Paterno is a repuke too. I like JoePa for most of what he stands for but, politically, he is a little wacked. I think he is old school repub - fiscally conversative.

Oh, BTW, if you check out Accuweather for Houston, there is a little plug for George Senior:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=1&zipcode=77001&metric=0

George Junior:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=1&zipcode=76638&metric=0

Little Rock? Funny - no mention of the 42nd President
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=1&zipcode=72201&metric=0

[stevedeshazer]

5. Message to Santorum: Bite Me

Fuck the Foxization of weather news. Unreal.

No surprise from the leading Anti-Science Senator.

[rzemanfl]

7. Let the dog I've been dating bite that Repuke motherbleeper. n/t

[CatholicEdHead]

6. First, the NWS forcast they refer to is EXPERIMENTAL

it says it clearly on the image. Second, ALL meterology is based on chance. AccuWx is free to take the legal risk for being off if they want to. It is better to be safe than sorry, espically this far out from landfall.

[KoKo]

8. Santorum's Repugs only believe their own "Sound Science."

I guess that's why Governor Perry was so Upbeat on Matthews. AccuWeather must have told him Huston/Galveston is "Free and Clear."

:-(

[jedr]

9. AccuWeather is also spewing that;

these storms have nothing to do with global warming. All weather is cyclical and we don't have records that go back that far.:puke:

[Zynx]

20. That's actually true

We only have a hundred years of hurricane data, and half of that of really good hurricane data.

Scientifically, it's completely impossible to say that global warming is making hurricanes worse than they would normally be because we have no idea what is normal with so few data points.

[DS1]

10. It's sensationalization for website hits, and through website hits

revenue from banner ads - and paid subscriptions.

[A-Possum]

11. DHS used accuweather for Katrina instead of NWS?

I got this off the Eastern US Weather forum, but no link, and I can't find the source.

The Senate Commerce Committee held hearings this afternoon on
Katrina. The House Science Committee will be holding hearing
Wednesday morning (9/21). Sen. Ben Nelson (Florida) asked Max
Mayfield whether it was true that Secretary Chertoff (the head of
homeland security) & Department of Homeland Security (DHS) used
Accuweather for hurricane forecasts of Katrina and he confirmed it.
The National Infrastructure Command Center in DHS prepared
an "overnight summary" for Secretary Chertoff on Katrina that was
based on Accuweather hurricane predictions rather than hurricane
forecast information from the National Hurricane Center. This dates
from when former PA. Governor Ridge was Secretary of homeland
security.

What's even most shocking is that the "NOAA Desk" in the DHS Ops
Center, staffed by a primary & two backup NWS meteorologists, prepared
forecasts for Secretary Chertoff based on the National Hurricane
Center; however, it is unsure that this ever made it to the
Secretary. To make matters worse & even more confusing, FEMA relies
solely on NWS products, which includes those issued by the National
Hurricane Center. So FEMA (which only uses NWS) and the DHS (which
uses Accuweather) are not even looking at the same forecasts! The NWS
NHC's track for Katrina was significantly different & more accurate
than Accuweather's. Just recently, Accuweather's track for Ophelia
brought it across Florida & into the Gulf. In both cases,
Accuweather's forecast was dead wrong. The end result is that the
head of homeland security & DHS & FEMA received conflicting forecasts.

Sen. Bill Nelson also asked Max Mayfield about consolidation and
downsizing of WFOs and Max Mayfield unequivocally said it was a very
bad idea, and that he hopes that it doesn't happen and that the local
WFOs are an essential part of NWS. Senator Nelson also trashed
Accuweather and, without naming Santorum, blasted those who would try
to take NWS off the air and off the internet to help commercial
interests.

Accuweather's Katrina and Ophelia forecasts were way off; while the NWC nailed it. No wonder we have a problem, Houston.

[Oilwellian]

18. This is key

To make matters worse & even more confusing, FEMA relies
solely on NWS products, which includes those issued by the National
Hurricane Center. So FEMA (which only uses NWS) and the DHS (which
uses Accuweather) are not even looking at the same forecasts! The NWS
NHC's track for Katrina was significantly different & more accurate
than Accuweather's. Just recently, Accuweather's track for Ophelia
brought it across Florida & into the Gulf. In both cases,
Accuweather's forecast was dead wrong. The end result is that the
head of homeland security & DHS & FEMA received conflicting forecasts.

[msongs]

12. this is not LBN......and both maps show the same thing

the cutesy color accurweather map shows the same basic thing as the NHC map. misleading propaganda.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/clark2008.htm

[DemsUnited]

13. Fox News uses Accuweather Forecasts in their weather reports.

At least it did when I flipped over the channel then let it sit for 15 seconds while they did the weather report. Thought at least THAT would be "fair and balanced".

Guess I was incredibly wrong.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

14. Notify AccuWeather that their endorsement of Sanctimonius

leads us to seek forecasts from any source BUT theirs.

[Gman]

15. I've never seen anything on the Accuweather site like this:

Be sure to click on the Trp Frcst Pts check box to track Rita's eye against the forecast track. Click on other check boxes for pressure lines (MSLP), roads and counties or current radar.

Be sure to click the MSLP button to display the pressure lines. As of right now (7:07 p.m. CDT) you can clearly see the dividing lines between the two high pressures (1008 & 1012), which Rita has been looking for. The 1012 to the right is the high that was expected to move to the east and force the northwest turn. This makes me wonder if the models will react to this and move landfall even further east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

This is a cool product.

Warning: Only click this if you have a high speed connection. It's heavy on Java and loads a ton of data.

[A-Possum]

16. HAH They edited out the part about NHC

now it only says This product is designed to be used by government and emergency management officials.

Is that why this got moved out of LBN? LOL, I don't care but it did say that earlier about the NHC forecast is virtually useless.

[Zynx]

19. Accuweather likes to guess. They're notorious for this.

I can guess where a hurricane is going to go. Doesn't mean I can predict it.