That's it. No more disaster movies for you.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

This is NOT "The Day After" about to happen.

This is a huge category 5 hurricane at this point similar to the last one that hit the area.

There may be tragic death and destruction but I feel that since we have learned from the likes of Camille and Andrew, it will not be on the armageddon like scale that many here and in TV land are predicting.

I will take bets that New Orleans will still be there Tuesday morning. The casinos on the beach and ocean in Biloxi? That's another question.

I'm not trying to make light of the situation, but I feel that the prevailing doom of NO, LA feelings are hopefully a bit of exaggeration of the realities of the next few days.

Prayers to those in the path of this monster storm wherever they may be.

[Horse with no Name]

1. I guess the fact that they are calling this storm "historic"

loses it's meaning on you.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

4. They said that the last time as well.

Adjectives are cheap and easy to use.

(I hope to god I'm right). I'm not suggesting that the storm shouldn't be taken seriously or that people in the projected path shouldn't get the hell out of there.

Just that the disaster rhetoric seems to be in overdrive on this one.

[KyndCulture]

9. perhaps the science is a bit lost on you as well.

The media has desensitized people to the storms.

However, the pressure of 902mb makes this storm deadly, and New Orleans has known a direct hit from a category 5 storm would devastate the city.

I'm not paying one damn bit of attention to the media, merely the scientists and when people who've studied New Orleans infrastructure and hurricanes their whole lives are saying things like catastrophic loss of life in excess of 9/11... I tend to take that pretty damn seriously.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

30. In this case I really hope I am right and you are wrong.

Peace.

[Horse with no Name]

10. Just taking my lead from the director of the National Hurricane Center

Who said this is "The Big One". I pray everyone is wrong...but all the good science available says we aren't.
I don't want to minimize the death and destruction potential.
I'd like people to start thinking about how they are going to help.
Minimizing it won't make people respond.
People need to be donating blood, money, food, manpower etc to the Red Cross before it hits.
With this President in charge...we are obviously going to be responsible for much of the help.

[Child_Of_Isis]

11. Just that the disaster rhetoric seems to be in overdrive on this one.

That's why it is so scary. There is something different about how they are broadcasting this one. :scared:

[NMDemDist2]

2. yeah but the "Oil Storm" on FX last june summed up this very scenario

just saying :shrug:

Oil Storm
America's lifeline has been severed ... Premieres on FX Sunday 5th June 2005 8pm e/p

"Oil has been the life blood of America for the past 100 years but in September 2005 a hurricane blew into the gulf of Mexico and severed the supply of oil to the nation."

This is a dramatised documentary that asks what would happen to America if the oil ran out.

The dramatic action opens in Louisiana when a hurricane hits the coast taking out a critical portion of the oil industry’s infrastructure forcing thousands to evacuate and costing the oil industry billions. As the financial markets spiral out of control and prices rise no family in the country is untouched by the crisis and desperate measures are called for…

[ohio_liberal]

5. I was thinking of this movie this morning

$8.00/gallon gas. :scared:

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

6. I saw that...

It was hard to watch. And not because of the story it was trying to tell, but because of the obvious fear mongering that anything faux is so good at spreading.

:toast:

[Fleshdancer]

8. ok, now that is creepy n/t

[katinmn]

3. Thanks for trying to keep things in perspective. Hope for the best.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

31. Thanks for one of the few words of support in the "this is not the

end of the world as we know it" line.

:toast:

[skids]

7. "similar to the last one that hit the area."

CAT5's hitting the U.S. are very rare. This one is strong. It may end up to be the strongest on record when all is said and done.

No, it isn't "the day after." (If it stopped in its tracks and just hovered over the gulf gaining strength, then I might start to wonder.)

But it is not to be downplayed either. If NO doesn't luck out, these are tornado-force winds we are dealing with here. The difference between this and a tornado being that this is a whole lot bigger.

[wli]

12. It overlaps weak ones but tornados get a lot faster. n/t

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

15. They were calling Dennis a Cat five for a while, it dropped to Cat 4

before it hit land with sustained winds of 135mph.

[skids]

20. Dennis barely eeked CAT4.

This one is much stronger, and got stronger much faster than predicted.



For prior years, see:

http://skeetobiteweather.com/history.asp

[spuddonna]

13. Actually I just read an article in Scientific American...

that predicted that if a Cat 5 hit NO directly, it is quite possible that the entire city could be destroyed.

The biggest problem comes from the levee system that keeps Lake Pontchartrain from flooding into the city. There, the levees are much lower. The water flooding in from the storm surge, in addition to the rainfall could cause the Lake to dump into New Orleans.

I just heard a local report saying that the level of the lake is already rising dangerously, and the outer bands have just started.

Then there is the fact that this storm will still be a Cat 3-4 as it moves north, dumping even more water into the Mississippi River, which will eventually drain back towards NO and the Gulf...

This place will be a mess for quite a while... I'm praying that it lessens, and that everyone stays safe...

[tom_paine]

14. You are probably right, Tom

Still, the fact is that NO is below sea level, and sea level continues to rise inexorably. Atmospheric energies also continue to rise, global mean temperature continues to rise, etc.

This one may not put NO under water, but likely within the next century, it WILL be underwater, along with a good bit of Lousiana.

Hopefully, I am wrong. Science and trends, as best as they can be interpreted, say otherwise.

[Child_Of_Isis]

16. Evidently my daughter studied something about this in school.

She was telling me about the swamplands and such. She referred to NO as being the next Lost Atlantis. Or so the conclusion of the study said. Now, my daughter at 17 knows this...! One has to wonder why we aren't spending money addressing our own issues instead of everyone's issues in the Middle East. This just pisses me off. We need to start taking care of our own homeland.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

32. It looks as if NO is hanging tough for now...

We'll all know in a few hours.

[MIMIC]

17. This hurricane is the 4th most intense on U.S. record

And it has a projected path to strike New Orleans dead-on...a city that is 70% below sea-level. MSNBC has the hurricane to make landfall with winds of 179 mph.

If that's not a catastrophe in the makings, I don't know what is.

[NMDemDist2]

18. read this Tom, a show done by Bill Moyers a couple years ago

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4484774

DANIEL ZWERDLING: So basically the part of New Orleans that most people in the United States and around the world think of as New Orleans would disappear under water.

JOE SUHAYDA:: That's right. During the worst of the storm, most of this area would be covered by 15 to 20 feet of water.

DANIEL ZWERDLING: Do you expect this kind of hurricane and this kind of flooding to hit New Orleans in our lifetime?

JOE SUHUYDA:Well, there-- I would say the probability is yes. In terms of past experience, we've had three storms that were near-misses that could've done at least something close to this.

DANIEL ZWERDLING: So emergency management officials are trying to get ready... they're playing a hurricane version of war games.

WALTER MAESTRI: A couple of days ago we actually had an exercise where we brought a fictitious Category Five hurricane--

DANIEL ZWERDLING: The worst.

WALTER MAESTRI: --the absolute worst, into the metropolitan area

DANIEL ZWERDLING: Walter Maestri is basically the czar of public emergencies in Jefferson Parish. It's the biggest suburb in the region.

WALTER MAESTRI:Well, when the exercise was completed it was evident that we were going to lose a lot of people we changed the name of the storm from Delaney to K-Y-A-G-B... kiss your ass goodbye... because anybody who was here as that Category Five storm came across... was gone.

http://www.pbs.org/now/transcript/transcript_neworleans.html

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

24. This is one assumption on my part where I really hope like hell I'm right.

I am also hoping that the evacuations and other precautions that are being taken will reduce the loss of life to something better than what was seen with Camille and Galveston.

I have no doubt that the property damages will be great if it hits along the projected path.

I also have faith in the American people to do the right thing in the aftermath regardless of political affiliations.

Lets all keep our fingers crossed.

[Hissyspit]

19. The precedent for N.O. is Betsy from '65. Smaller hurricane, still...

had 125 mph winds in the city. Was U.S.'s first $1 billion hurricane

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2003-...

[Mutley]

21. In any other city you would be right.

The water is going to be the biggest problem here. NO is below sea level, and the storm surges they are talking about are going to put most of the city below water. And who knows how long it will take to pump all of it out?

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

22. It's going to be bad, no doubt about it....

The model now appears as if it will have to travel over 60 miles of land and swamp before it hits NO now. If it's still traveling at say 15mph, that will give it an hour to spend a lot of energy.

Trying to hope for the best here.

[OrlandoGator]

23. New Orleans is sinking already...this is fact.

Under the weight of 20 feet of water, the city will literally no longer exist.

This isn't wild fantasy.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

25. I promise, New Orleans will be there on Tuesday.

Battered, portions under water? Most likely. But th New Orleans star will still shine.

[XOKCowboy]

26. Amen bro...

New Orleans has only been surviving since 1718. It's one of my favorite places in America and it will survive again. They've got an indomitable spirit there that you won't find hardly anywhere else in America.

[alarimer]

29. I'm sure it has been through a lot of hurricanes

Since the founding of the city. I think there will be billions in damage and unfortunately some fatalities but I am also hoping that it loses some strength before it gets there.

[AuntPatsy]

27. I pray your right Tom, I really do.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

28. Me too, kid.

I really think I am.

It's a serious storm and there will be losses, but I think that we have a lot of people that have read or seen too many disaster stories.

This is real life.

And New Orleans will survive.

[expatriate]

33. While I hope that the storm damage in NO

is less than has been predicted, I'd like to point out that the bloody storm has barely made landfall. It has yet to reach the latitude of New Orleans, yet there are people, including people on the news, who are starting to sound as if it's a certainty that this storm will miss New Orleans.

I grew up in South Louisiana. Hurricanes become very unpredictable once they begin to make landfall. They can be deflected along the coast in one direction or another. Most often, they go east, making the often-mentioned "right turn". Sometimes, however, they don't.

When it's all said and done, it is still possible for this storm to make a direct hit on New Orleans. Not as likely as it looked 24 hours ago, but Katrina's career on the mainland of the USA is just beginning - and people are already beginning to breathe sighs of relief and say it's not so bad. This is not the case. We ain't seen nothing yet.

Wherever the brunt of this storm goes, there is going to be massive damage and much loss of life. This one is bigger than Hurricane Camille, which I remember distinctly. And right now, it's poised right there at the mouth of the Mississippi River - and hurricanes have been known in the past to turn and go right up the river's path.

Let's see what happens, and brace to do what we can to help. There is no way a storm of this magnitude is going to pass without doing horrific damage somewhere - and right now, there is no way to tell just exactly where that somewhere is going to be.

[Silverhair]

34. New Orleans seems to have been spared.

I say seems because the eye is still SSE of N.O. and hurricanes, being the capracious things they are, could still zig left.

However, it does appear to have zagged to the east. N.O. will have the eye brush past it on the lesser side. Wind speeds will be reduced by the forward movement of the hurricane, and the major part of the storm surge won't hit them. It WILL be a mess, but N.O. looks like it will still be there and will be back in shape in a couple of weeks.

But that is ONLY because the storm veered to the east at the last little bit. A direct hit by a CAT 5 storm surge (Which is what it looked like was going to happen as of last night.) on N.O. would have ruined the city.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

35. Sometimes it's really good to be right.

No 10's of thousands dead but still a mess to dig out of. Congratulations, New Orleans!