What's the danger of Dean and Kerry cancelling each other out?

[FlashHarry]

Leaving Lieberman or Gephardt the nominee? That would be the nightmare scenario, in my opinion. As Mary Landrieu proved, you won't win by running a Bush-lite campaign.

I'm still on the fence between the two. I like Dean's 'straight talk' and fiscal conservatism, but I'm deeply opposed to the death penalty. Help!

[chimpymustgo]

1. Go with Kerry or Edwards - they can win in the general election.

eom

[IndianaGreen]

2. Lieberman will never be the nominee!

People will rally to an antiwar candidate first. If that fails, most will rally to Graham (he voted against the war) or to Gephardt (his labor record).

I don't think we will have a deadlocked convention. The race will be over by April Fool's Day.

[poskonig]

3. Not much.

Either Kerry or Dean will win New Hampshire. Either Dean or Gephardt will win Iowa. So by the middle of the primary, the possible outcomes include:

Kerry v Gephardt
Dean v Gephardt
Kerry v Dean
Dean (frontrunner)

[chimpymustgo]

4. Or not. Is that a personalized crystal ball you got there?

Anything can happen.

[Cocoa]

5. a lot of flaws in that short argument

all of the stated and unstated assumptions are highly questionable.

[poskonig]

6. The argument is solid.

The person wanted to know whether Dean and Kerry would "cancel" each other out, leaving victory to Gephardt or Lieberman. The answer is no. Why?

Because Dean and Kerry are running neck'n'neck in the NH. While anything is possible, one of those two will probably win that state.

In addition, if Gephardt is going to be in play, he needs to get Dean off his back and win Iowa, or he is sunk. Gephardt, Dean, or whoever wins Iowa, will have to compete against the winner of NH. Hence I do not see how Dean and Kerry "cancel" each other out for the benefit of someone else at all in this primary season, though they could go head-to-head at the end.

[OKNancy]

7. Huh?

Iowa and New Hampshire are for publicity value only. They hardly matter in the delegate count. Hell, Oklahoma has their primary on Feb 6th and OK has more than twice as many delegates as New Hampshire.

Since the Democrats do not do a winner take all system, a big win in South Carolina will wipe out any advantage that was won in NH or Iowa.

[chimpymustgo]

8. Can you say John Edwards?

He's going to do very well in SC. Virginia, Tennesee, Oklahoma.

[jpgray]

9. Don't think it will happen

Dean and Kerry are in my opinion the best electable candidates, so I imagine the majority of primary voters will fall to either one.