Kerry Pulls Ahead In New CNN TIME Poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Kerry 16%


Lieberman 13%



Dean 11%



Bush Reelect


Definitely Bush 29%


Definitely Not Bush 41%


Undecided 25%


No Link

[tjdee]

1. All polls are propaganda!

(except for the ones I like.)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. I thought you liked Kerry? nt

[tjdee]

38. I was kidding, LOL.

I never know which polls DUers are going to take as "accurate".

I got some beefs with Kerry (and they've diminished a lot), but he's alright.

[deutsey]

17. regardless of whether I like or dislike what a poll says

I always try to remember that polls also indicated that Bush would win the popular vote in 2000.

[Freddie Stubbs]

24. They actually indicated a very close race

Which was exactly the outcome.

[Yupster]

27. I think the last weekend

drunk driving conviction news probably cost Bush the 2 % that the polls said he was ahead.

That election was a very rare one where the people who decided at the last minute decided against the challenger, counting Gore as the incumbent. I think the drunk driving news was behind that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Don't Forget Most Polls Have A 3% Margin Of Error

The only polls that were way off were the Rasmussen Poll and the Battleground Poll...


Zogby, CBS News, and Harris had it even or Gore ahead....

[quinnox]

2. No link?

Did you see this on CNN?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I'm Watching Inside Politics

[rabid_nerd]

3. I'm gonna bet here..

I bet it was Lieberman #1, Kerry #2 and Dean #3 in the previous one with Lieberman dropping, and both Kerry and Dean rising.

[CMT]

28. I think you are right

The real news is only 29% are prepared to say for sure they would vote for Bush!!

[diplomats]

31. Really? That's great news!

Any more details on the poll, such as his approval rating?

[diplomats]

32. Actually, I didn't realize that reelect thing was in the original post

His approval number has to be no higher than the low 50s and perhaps in the 40s.

[ibegurpard]

4. Good news.

I'm not fond of Kerry but anything that puts Lieberman behind is reason to celebrate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. This Race Is Wide Open

Gep will win IA... He's getting good national press for his Bush Bashing:"Bush is a miserable failure" and a wretch.

Kerry or Dean will win NH



on edit-wretch is my word...

[oasis]

7. Bush's chances to retain WH are also falling in the polls.

[unfrigginreal]

8. I saw it reported on CNN

I'm not a happy camper...I'll support Kerry in the general but I don't think that he can beat Bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Think He Has A Marginally Better Chance Than Dean

a much better chance than Lieberman, and a slightly worse chance than Edwards or Gep...

[West Coast Democrat]

10. Definitely Bush Numbers Sure Are Slipping Fast!!!

This is great news!

[jos]

11. These national primary polls don't mean a thing

Because we don't have a national primary. It's the early primary and caucus states that matter. If one candidate does well there, he or she will be the leader in the national poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Agree

but the person who is doing well in the national polls up until the primaries start will get the most press and the caucuses and primaries are still four or five months away...

[w4rma]

13. CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Aug. 25-26, 2003. N=397

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Aug. 25-26, 2003. N=397 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."

8/25-26/03
Joe Lieberman 23%
Dick Gephardt 13%
Howard Dean 12%
John Kerry 10%

8/4-6/03
Joe Lieberman 18%
Dick Gephardt 15%
Howard Dean 15%
John Kerry 12%

7/25-27/03
Joe Lieberman 21%
Dick Gephardt 16%
Howard Dean 11%
John Kerry 15%
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That Poll Is A Bit Old....

[Must_B_Free]

15. cool - I like Kerry

!

[quinnox]

16. This is the first time I have ever seen

a national poll with Lieberman not in first place.

I would be curious when this poll was taken, I wonder if Kerry's announcement helped bump him up in the poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. They Said He Got A Bounce From His Announcement

[QuidditchFan]

20. Yeah, I won't believe those numbers until I see verification...

It is just too good to be true that Lieberman is losing ground and that Bush's re-elect numbers are so low.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I Transcribed What I Saw

If there are DUers who were watching Inside Politics here they can confirm it

[blm]

33. I saw it...you got it right.

I'm withholding judgement on poll accuracy until the end of the month. I really expect we'll know who the nominee will be by Nov.

[tom_paine]

21. I'd say that was hopeful, but

I don't think these polls count

1) Florida-Style Choicepoint disenfranchisement strategies

2) Other soft-style disenfranchsiement strategies, proven also effective in Florida and probably many other unreported placves, such as Bushevik voitng officials funneling faulty machines to poor counties and turning off error-checking functions on optical ballots in African-American precincts while assiduously feeding all Bushevik ballots through in Bushevik precincts

3) 2002 electronic touchscreen "downloads" practiced most extensively in Georgia, Alabama, California..paving the Stalinsitically foregone victory for Provincial Governor Facelift Molester Nazison (complete with phony Bushevik Faux Polls to give a "backstory" to their lies)

4) Oh, and who can forget the power Rove/Freeper axis of double-and-triple-voters using the shambles of Imperial "voting" to do what they have to win ("because they are fighting "liberal evil", they are of course justified) and the Abuse of Absentee Ballots (blocking/stuffing) that the Busheviks basically came out openly and admitted during the Bloodless Coup of 2000.

http://www.hannibal.net/stories/070402/new_0704020030.shtml

Not that such irregularities would be investigated more thoroughly, nor their results, if any were actually generated, be reported to the citizenry. That only happens in the Free World, and the Empire no longer technically belongs to that group.

The ONLY way the Busheviks can be stopped is to deliver a theft-proof majority. With Touchscreen voting, I'm not sure even that's possible

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I Think You Can Manipulate An Election At The Margins But

I don't think you can do a Marcos like theft in the U S

[blackcat77]

23. Stupid people pick the last name they've heard nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. That's A Good Point

It's called the primacy and recency effect... Some folks remember what they heard first and heard last and forgot what's in the middle.


That's why pollsters change the order of candidates from respondent to respondent...

[jeter]

29. JESUS FUCKING CHRIST

Are you telling me that those DEFINITELY NOT VOTING for Bush is 12% higher than those DEFINITELY VOTING for him?

That is the worse number I have seen. Jesus Christ he's toast.

P.S. As far as Kerry goes. WHo gives a shit. When he loses New Hampshire it's all over for him.

[devarsi]

34. Still another 25% undecided

But even if that 25% went all to the "Definitely Will" category (how likely is that!) you only have a 54/41 split. WTF? Is that missing 5% the margin of error?

Regardless, a 41% hard negative is a disaster for Bush. Negative emotions tend to run stronger, or more fanatically than postive, IMO. In other words, less open to change.

With this base, the Dems just need to show the voters a clear difference between the Dem candidate and Bush, as reason to vote Dem, and its all over.

All the more reason for DINOs to stand the hell aside.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

35. I wonder what the political persuasion is of the people that read TIME...

...my sense is that it appeals to a pretty conservative niche of the newsmagazine market.

Thoughts?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. It Was A National Poll Commissioned by TIME

I subscribe to Newseek and TIME and don't see much of an ideological difference...

[rabid_nerd]

36. POLL COMPARISON - some numbers jive, others shock

Comparing this poll to last poll by CNN/Time:


          Definitely Definitely   
            Bush      Not Bush   Other (vol.)    Not Sure
8/25-26/03   51          39          4              6
This Poll    29          41          5              25 ??

[hedda_foil]

40. Looks like a whole lot of people moved from definitely *

to undecided since whistle-ass came back from the pig farm. What I've noticed is that from week to week there's strong movement out of the Bush column into the "not sure" column and about the same number that moved away from *into the ranks of the undecided the previous week move from "not sure" to ABBB the next week.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. You Are Comparing A CNN TIME Poll

with a CNN Gallup Poll



Different questions will yield different results....


I believe Yankolovich is TIME's pollster...

[damnraddem]

37. Where?

National?