1 IN 128:THE ODDS EXIT POLLS IN 7 NON-PAPER STATES WOULD ALL GO TO BUSH

[TruthIsAll]

1 IN 128: THE ODDS EXIT POLLS IN 7 NON-PAPER STATES WOULD ALL DEVIATE TO BUSH

ASSUME A FAIR ELECTION:
THE ODDS ARE 1 OF 128 THAT FOR 7 NON-PAPER BALLOT STATES, THE FINAL VOTES WOULD ALL TREND AWAY FROM THE EXIT POLLS TO BUSH. NONE TO KERRY. ALL TO BUSH.

THEY DID JUST THAT.

FORGET ABOUT THE AVERAGE 5% MAGNITUDE OF THE MOVE. I DIDN'T COMPUTE THAT ONE. IF I DID, WOULD YOU BELIEVE ODDS OF 1 OUT OF A BILLION OR MORE?

BUSH DEFIED THE ODDS. VERY LUCKY OR VERY CROOKED.

THE PROBABILITY CALCULATION:
1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/128

[DeepModem Mom]

1. kick

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Truth, again I just don't concede those are independent events

Same company. Same day. If the models are wrong and the sampling is flawed, you are going to find widespread errors. It makes sense they would be in the same direction, not opposite. Hardly 7 independent events, IMO. It's also possible energized Kerry supporters DID vote disproportionately early in the day, and/or were more willing to talk to exit pollsters.

It's like 75 PGA golfers who all have a stroke average below 73, some as low as 68.5 On the same day I predict none of them will break 75. You could have a field day figuring out the odds against that, roughly the speed of light multiplied by the national debt.

Then you see the playing conditions; constant 55 mph crosswinds and a virtual monsoon. Math, exit stage right.

[dbt]

3. Kick!