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AntiFascist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 02:55 PM
Original message
Is the U.S. about to attack Iran?
Originally posted by Nancy Waterman under the Breaking News forum-

This story "leaked" from the White House:

http://www.tbrnews.org/Archives/a1130.htm


Also, the US previously sold bunker busting and other bombs to Israel, pissing off Iran:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/09/23/iran.israel.bomb.ap/


William Kristol is recommending ultimate "regime change" for Iran, in a document posted on PNAC:

http://www.newamericancentury.org/iran-20040720.htm


Is it getting drafty yet?
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. This is the October Surprise
Unilateral surprise attack on Iran.

We're gonna Pearl Harbor the Iranians!

Goddess help us all!
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
2. And the real reason (aside from f*&king up the election)
The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target:
Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker

By William Clark

September 28, 2004

“Deep in the Pentagon, admirals and generals are updating plans for
possible U.S. military action in Syria and Iran. The Defense Department
unit responsible for military planning for the two troublesome countries
is "busier than ever," an administration official says. Some Bush
advisers characterize the work as merely an effort to revise routine
plans the Pentagon maintains for all contingencies in light of the Iraq
war. More skittish bureaucrats say the updates are accompanied by a
revived campaign by administration conservatives and neocons for more
hard-line U.S. policies toward the countries”…”Even hard-liners
acknowledge that given the U.S. military commitment in Iraq, a U.S.
attack on either country would be an unlikely last resort; covert action
of some kind is the favored route for Washington hard-liners who want
regime change in Damascus and Tehran.”

More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=103&topic_id=78384
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wuushew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. Nobody told the State Department
VIENNA, Austria - Reconsidering its hard line on Iran, the United States is weighing the idea of rewarding the Islamic republic if it gives up technology that can be used for nuclear arms, diplomats and U.S. officials said Tuesday.

The diplomats, who spoke to The Associated Press from Vienna and another European capital, said senior European negotiators directly answerable to their foreign ministers planned to go to Washington this week for discussions with top U.S. State Department officials on a common Iran strategy.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6232151/

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Career Prole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. Colin Powell left out of the loop? Now that's a shocker!
Not. :eyes:
I'm not sure State is even on the White House Christmas card list, from what I've seen.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
4. We are so fucking overextended we can't even go to Sudan
as much as the Christian right would like us to.
This is a no go.
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BJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:02 PM
Response to Original message
5. Look, these guys are stupid but I don't think they're total idiots.
The last time I checked the CIA World Factbook on Iran, it says there's a total population of nearly 70 million. And nearly 20 million of that total population are males of military age, between 18-49.

Compare this with Iraq's total pre-invasion population of 25 million.

It'd be suicide to invade Iran.
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Bomb...not invade
Troops wouldn't be needed
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BJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Oh, yeah, "Shock 'n' awe", followed by the giant robots.
Maybe I will change my mind (a flip-flop as it were.) These guys are idiots.
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Well I didn't say it was a GOOD plan
Personally I would think a lot of very angry young Iranians, and there are millions of them, would pour into Iraq looking for revenge...but that's just me. :D
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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
7. Perhaps - Defense Chief Pays Visit to USS John F. Kennedy
Defense Chief Pays Visit to USS John F. Kennedy

Story Number: NNS041012-02
Release Date: 10/12/2004 11:24:00 AM

By Journalist 1st Class Kayla Thompson, USS John F. Kennedy Public Affairs

ABOARD USS JOHN F. KENNEDY (NNS) -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and the ministers of defense from 18 coalition countries made a stop Oct. 9 aboard USS John F. Kennedy (CV 67), currently deployed to the Arabian Gulf in support of the global war on terrorism.

Rumsfeld and guests took a whirlwind tour of the ship and participated in a video teleconference with a key military component in Baghdad. Rumsfeld then met with the crew of Kennedy in the ship’s hangar bay.

“It is a privilege to have Secretary Rumsfeld and his guests on board,” said Capt. Dennis FitzPatrick, commanding officer of Kennedy. “A former naval aviator, he understands firsthand how much hard work by all of you goes into successfully accomplishing our mission.”

After Rumsfeld was presented with a Kennedy ball cap, making him a member of the crew, Rumsfeld spoke to the Sailors of Kennedy.

“The first time I was aboard a carrier was for the commissioning of USS Hollandia in 1943. I was 10 years old, and my father was the hangar deck officer," Rumsfeld said. "Many years later, I had the privilege of landing aboard another carrier, USS Monterey (CVL 26), this time as a pilot. So it is indeed a personal privilege for this son of a Navy man and an old broken down naval aviator himself, to be with you here on this great day."
more
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=15478

ESG 3 Proves Flexibility, Mobility with First Staff Cross Deck at Sea


Story Number: NNS040915-05
Release Date: 9/15/2004 9:00:00 PM

By Lt. Sonja Stone, Expeditionary Strike Group 3 Public Affairs

ABOARD USS ESSEX, North Arabian Gulf (NNS) -- Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) 3 executed the first ESG flag staff cross deck at sea Sept. 9, from USS Belleau Wood (LHA 3) to USS Essex (LHD 2).

Once the turnover was completed and the ESG 3 watch was established, Essex Expeditionary Strike Group was officially activated Sept. 10.

Essex will fill a vital role as flagship for Marine Brig. General Joseph V. Medina, commander, ESG 3 and his staff. Medina assumed the duties as commander, Task Force (CTF) 58 June 30. The ESG 3/CTF 58 staff is responsible for Maritime Security Operations (MSO) in the Northern Arabian Gulf, to include protection of Al Basrah Oil Terminal (ABOT) and Khawr Al Amaya Oil Terminal (KAAOT) off the coast of Iraq.

“This is a first, but it makes sense. Our cross deck to Essex supports the Navy’s philosophy of ‘presence with a purpose,’” said Medina. “The purpose of the flag staff is to bridge theater-wide operational plans and tactical execution at the Task Force level.”

The ESG 3/CTF 58 flag staff also provides the ability to simultaneously plan and execute multiple missions, thereby avoiding task saturation at the subordinate levels.

more
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=15133


31st MEU arrives in Northern Arabian Gulf

Stars and Stripes
Pacific edition, Wednesday, September 15, 2004

CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit recently arrived in the Northern Arabian Gulf aboard ships from the Essex Amphibious Ready Group.

1st Lt. Tryiokasus W. Brown, spokesman for the Okinawa-based 31st MEU, said the transit took three weeks, during which the Marines and sailors continued to train “in preparation to assist coalition forces in the global war on terrorism.”

About 1,000 Marines assigned to the MEU departed White Beach Naval Facility on Okinawa aboard the USS Essex, USS Harpers Ferry and USS Juneau in mid-August. The 31st MEU includes the Battalion Landing Team, consisting of the 1st Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment; 1st Battalion, 3rd Marines, Marine Medium Helicopter Squadron 265 (Reinforced); and MEU Service Support Group 31.

“Combined with the sailors of Amphibious Squadron 11 in the U.S. Central Command’s area of operations, the MEU continues to represent a force in readiness in the global war on terrorism with ‘Strike from the Sea’ capability,” Brown stated in the release.

more
http://www.ndtv.com/morenews/showmorestory.asp?slug=India%2C+US+carry+out+Naval+exercises&id=61827

October 10, 2004: “This time, friends, I have some very important news for all of you. Unlike the usual silly gossip that goes on around the White House, intermingled with loud praying, this is really news. We are about to embark on another war! Yes, it has been decided and carefully planned. Who are we going to war with? Iran. Background here: (I am taking this from a paper which I have to return)

Thesis: Iran hates the United States and Israel. Iran has atomic weapons and missiles (the Shahab, courtesy of North Korean/Russian technicians) It can easily reach Tel Aviv. It can also reach US troop concentrations in Iraq. Israel is scared shitless. Their pressure groups have leaned on the White House, with a great deal of assistance from Cheney and the Neocons. The actual plan is this:

The U.S. has no troops available for an Iranian adventure and the Israelis would rather not lose any warm bodies so…it has been firmly decided that both Israel and the U.S. will launch a surprise attack against 1., Iranian missile sites, 2. Iranian nuclear facilities and 3. the leadership of Iran located in and around Tehran. How will this be done? By aircraft attack using U.S. developed “smart bombs” and the so-called “bunker-buster” bombs designed to destroy underground reinforced concrete facilities .We just sent these to Israel. Because of the political ramifications, the Israelis will conduct the main strikes, supported by U.S. aircraft as needed. The aim will be to wipe out any vestige of nuclear weaponry, its delivery system and all the Iranian leaders capable of starting any attacks on Israel (mostly Tel Aviv…too many fellow Muslims in Jerusalem.) Since it would be a problem for Israeli Air Force units to fly round trip from Israel, the solution will be to launch these attacks from U.S. aircraft carriers located in the Persian Gulf area. As I write, the super carrier USS John F. Kennedy (CV 67) is now in the Persian Gulf along with the so-called Essex Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) <31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) (SOC)> which consists of:: USS Essex (LHD 2) USS Juneau (LPD 10) USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) USS Mobile Bay (CG 53USS Hopper (DDG 70) USS Preble (DDG 88) The initial attacks will be an early-morning surprise attack launched to coincide with religious services in Tehran’s Muslim mosques with the idea of catching not only the leading Mullahs inside but a large number of their congregations as well. One attack will concentrate on these religious centers and the other will hit both the underground nuclear facilities and identified (courtesy of U.S. satellite shots) missile launching sites. The U.S. will supply observation and radio surveillance aircraft with radar-jamming capacities operating out of Turkey and Italy. The entire attack is scheduled to last no more than one hour with at least three waves of Israeli aircraft utilized. No warning will be given to the Iranians and no declaration of war. The possible deaths of foreign diplomats in the attacks has been discussed and accepted as part of the price. This attack has the full support of the President who wants it launched before the elections. He can then make a speech to the American people stating that the evil Iranian nuclear weaponry has been destroyed by the Israelis with the full cooperation of his government as part of his heroic war against terrorists. Believe me, that speech has already been written and I have seen a copy of it. The brass here feels that this will have a tremendous impact on the American people, just before the elections. No U.S. ground troops will be used; Bush will stress that this is a joint U.S.-Israeli anti-terrorist project. Part of the speech deals with ongoing Shiite Iranian physical support of their Shiite brethren in Iraq and that by knocking out the Iranian nuclear weaponry, at the same time, they are protecting GIs from ongoing guerrilla warfare. The brass is literally rubbing it’s hands and drooling over what they see as Bush’s Final Victory. I have seen a negative report copy from someone in the Pentagon that says if the Iranians get wind of this little game, they might strike first and they might also realize that large numbers of vulnerable American troops are concentrated inside Iraqi cities, prime targets for a nuclear tactical attack. These people are literally insane and I really hope you don’t delete this. Something really has to be done to stop these maniacs before we all die of radiation sickness!”

http://www.tbrnews.org/Archives/a1130.htm

Dyer: Will an attack on Iran be the real October Surprise?

American intelligence sources are busily leaking hair-raising tales of Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program. Norman Podhoretz, editor of Commentary and godfather of the neo-conservatives, tells an interviewer: "I am not advocating the invasion of Iran at this moment, although I wouldn't be heartbroken if it happened." Israel has recently taken delivery of 500 "bunker-buster" bombs from the United States - just the thing for destroying deeply buried nuclear facilities. Is the long-predicted "October Surprise" that clinches the U.S. election for President George W. Bush going to be an attack on Iran?
Some senior Iranian military people seem concerned about it, and last month Yadollah Javani, head of the Revolutionary Guards political bureau, reassured Iranians that neither the U.S. nor Israel would dare to attack their country. "The entire Zionist territory, including its nuclear facilities and atomic arsenal, are currently within range of Iran's advanced missiles," he said. "Therefore, neither the Zionist regime nor America will carry out its threats."
Some of this is obvious nonsense. Norman Podhoretz's grasp of military realities is inferior to that of the average beauty queen. The United States is far too over-stretched militarily in Afghanistan and Iraq to contemplate invading Iran, which is much bigger and stronger than both of them put together, and Israel cannot invade Iran, having no common border with it.
There will not be an invasion. Yadollah Javani is also talking through his hat. Iran's Shahab-3 missiles can reach Israel and strike at American forces all over the Middle East, but as Iran certainly has no nuclear weapons at the moment, that only means that it can drop a few high-explosive warheads on them, without much in the way of accuracy, if it doesn't lose its missiles on the ground first. There is no effective Iranian deterrent to American or Israeli air strikes aimed at destroying the country's nuclear facilities, which is far more likely than an actual invasion. What is conspicuously lacking (as in the case of Iraq) is any reason for arguing that an attack is urgent.

...

An attack now would be driven by political calculations. Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would be seriously tempted to launch a "pre-emptive" strike against Iranian nuclear facilities if he could get a green light from the U.S., as it would eliminate a potential threat to Israel's nuclear weapons monopoly in the region and also boost his popularity in a difficult period at home. From

...

When all the relevant decision-makers on both sides of the argument have something to gain politically from a certain action, it becomes a possibility. No more than that, for the moment, and the final decision would have to be made in Washington even if it were Israelis who did the actual bombing.
But if George W. Bush's poll numbers are looking shaky in mid-October, the possibility of that sort of an attack on Iran probably rises considerably.---
more
http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_2421473


Israel 'should attack nuclear sites in Iran if diplomacy fails'


From Ian MacKinnon in Jerusalem

A PRE-EMPTIVE Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear installations would be fraught with risks and difficulties, but it would set back significantly Tehran’s development programme, a respected think-tank in Tel Aviv said yesterday.

....

After news that Israel would take delivery of the precision-guided bombs capable of destroying underground targets, some analysts argued that the diversity of Iran’s facilities and poor intelligence would make a raid impossible.

Yet despite the problems of such an operation, Ephraim Kam, the Jaffee Centre’s deputy head, said that it would put the programme back for a year or more and should not be ruled out if diplomatic pressure failed to halt Iran’s research.

....

If Iran succeeds in putting its nuclear programme to military use, the Jaffee Centre says that it could dramatically destabilise the balance in the region, leading other countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria, to develop their own atomic installations.

Because of the threat that a nuclear Iran would pose, Dr Kam argues that if the IAEA and the international community fail to halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, Washington should intervene militarily, a prospect that seems to be growing. However, if the US shirked the challenge, Israel might have no choice but to act.

....

Mohammad Ali Abtahi, the Iranian Vice-President, had his resignation accepted yesterday, after saying that he could not work with the conservative-dominated parliament. A close ally of the reformist President Khatami, he first tendered his resignation in February.

more
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1306552,00.html



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Cleita Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
8. They have had both Iran and Syria in their gun sights since
way before the invasion of Iraq. It's part of the PNAC doctrine for global domination. Will they do it before the election though? I wonder. If they do then maybe it will be an excuse to postpone the elections. What will we do then?
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Career Prole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
9. I don't know about drafty
but dammit if I didn't just shiver. :scared:
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AntiFascist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:37 PM
Response to Original message
13. One wonders if California could lose a few electoral votes....
in the final result of all this.
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neverforget Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-13-04 03:43 PM
Response to Original message
14. Not the US, Israel will attack Iran to destroy the nuke plant. Iran
may retaliate against the US in Iraq. It's not like we can invade Iran when
A) we can't even control a much smaller nation and
B) we have no troops to invade with

Iran's nuke threat is going to be "taken care of" by Israel.
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