"Ivan Will Sink New Orleans"

[Jack_Dawson]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apus_story.asp?category=1110&slug=Vulnerable%20New%20Orleans

I knew New Orleans was f'd, but not THIS f'd...

[nostamj]

1. heard a report that people are being encouraged to

'vertically evacuate' - meaning, go to a high rise building!

madness. way too late for any effective evacuation by road now...

this *could* be very bad indeed.

[ClintonTyree]

8. My daughter and her roomies......................

left for Houston at 2:00 CST and I just talked to her; they're about halfway to Louis Armstrong Airport. It's miserable, they have to figure out a better way to evacuate that city. I sure as hell hope they make it out of there OK, this is what gives parents gray hair.

:-(

[KeepItReal]

15. If she is trying I-10, she's in for a long haul outta N.O.

I wish her luck. Hopefully my lil' bro at UNO is outta there.



http://www.dotd.louisiana.gov/press/traffic_cameras/traffic.asp?page=no_cameras

[ClintonTyree]

18. I guess...................

when they get to I-55 all lanes turn into westbound I-10. Until they get there, it's gonna be a very slow go.

[karlrschneider]

2. I think it will be a good ways east of NO. Watching the prog charts, wind

aloft forecasts etc. My guess is even east of Mobile. We shall see.
I just hope whoever IS in the bullseye makes it okay.

[enki23]

3. no it won't

i'm sitting in class with the guy doing the local storm surge modelling. as of right now, the storm surge won't be enough to be that bad, if current predictions hold out. it's taking a track somewhat similar to camille, if it doesn't start to hook soon (as it's expected to) but it's far less powerful.

and it'll have to move a lot further west before it reaches the doomsday scenario. not that there *isn't* a doomsday scenario, though. it just doesn't seem likely ivan will be it. though, you never know. it'll be bad regardless.

[BayouBengal07]

5. You go to LSU?

Classes are cancelled for Wed and Thurs. No Geography and Honors Geology tests for me!

My family got out of New Orleans today and is heading to my grandmother's house here in BR...and my kitten has a fever that can't be treated till we can get to the vet...:(

[Rowdyboy]

4. Everything depends on exactly where that bad boy makes landfall

It'll be ugly, wherever, but New Orleans would be a worst case scenario. The environmental damage from all the chemical, oil and gas stored; raw sewage, fire ants and poisonous snakes-not a pretty picture. I really don't see how much of the city could possibly survive-especially the older buildings.

[Jack_Dawson]

7. Fire Ants???

Please elabourate...

[donco6]

13. Fire Ants

Nasty buggies that can survive 4 days in water - bite the heck out of you leaving welts. Hate 'em hate em.

[Jack_Dawson]

14. You can't drown fire ants? N.O. has a lot of fire ants?

Didn't know either. :shrug:

[donco6]

17. All over the south.

As far north as CO.

They float on water after their mound gets flooded, and if you're wading through, a cluster of them gets on you and starts biting. Nasty dang things.

[Jack_Dawson]

19. Yuck!

That's horrible. The things they don't tell you on the news...

[proud patriot]

6. I watched a documentary years ago about the LO wetlands

and how the Mississippi river not being properly
used with longterm forthought . It's just a shame :-(

[likesmountains 52]

9. leaving NOLA

I just talked to my son who is a college student in New Orleans. They have been in the car almost 5 hours and are just about to get on the causeway across to Slidell...normally about an hour drive. They tried I-10 going west which he said was worse...total gridlock all the way to Baton Rouge. Hope people don't think they can evacuate at the last minute!

[karlrschneider]

11. If they can get to Slidell, they might be better off heading NE up toward

Birmingham...it might be a little more in the eventual path, but it's much higher ground. Just a thought...
I-59 I believe...dammit where's my road map?

[likesmountains 52]

12. thanks

Thanks, that's what I told him when I checked a map...at any rate they'll at least have a couple of options once they get there, and hopefully the traffic will spread out a bit. He said they put two signs in the car windows...one says Ivan is a Terrorist, the other says This is Bush's Fault...people are laughing and giving them the thumbs up..

[KeepItReal]

16. "This is Bush's Fault" - Ha ha

Seriously though...ha ha ha!

Hope he and everyone stays safe.

[karlrschneider]

23. LOL, glad they're keeping their sense of humor. Sometimes it's all we hav

left to fall back on. Best wishes for your folks!

[tom_paine]

10. For now, that's just speculation: a worst-case scenario

Let's hope it doesn't come true.

[Nordic]

20. I said days ago it was gonna clobber N.O.

and I still think it will.

It may also hit Texas. :)

[Jack_Dawson]

21. Link?

:beer:

[Eloriel]

26. My concern on this one has always been N.O. too

Never felt that the peninsula of FL was in any danger. It's looking better for N.O. now -- hope it stays that way.

[jdj]

39. My brother lives in Gulf Breeze, and I am scared for him

I want them to evac. but they probably won't even though they are under mandatory evac along with Pensacola. The closer the storm gets, they are saying it will go north then east at the last minute.

My best friend lives in Mobile, she is staying too, and it is too late to evac. I am afraid they are both making the same mistake, if they leave after tonight it will be hell getting out of there

[tedoll78]

22. The forecasters keep saying MS/AL state line area..

but I don't trust them a bit. Ivan keeps going north a bit, and then all of a sudden it takes a little jaunt to the west. Really like a stairstep pattern. Kinda scary.

And the pressure front that's supposed to shove it over the east? It just passed through Austin about 2 hours ago, and I don't know how long it'll take to get to New Orleans.. or if it'll be powerful enough to really redirect Ivan. Category 4 & 5 storms can sometimes resist pressure fronts' efforts to redirect them; they're unpredictable in that way. We saw how everyone was camped-out in Tampa Bay when Charley turned into Punta Gorda at the last minute.. what's to prevent this more powerful storm from doing something similar?

Mom and Dad are leaving Kenner (in Jefferson Parish, just west to New Orleans Parish) around 10pm with my grandma. They're going to Lafayette to stay with a cousin. My sister called me about an hour ago; she'll be staying at the hospital (Oschner). Her car will be parked on the fourth floor of the garage, packed with 5 gallons of water and a TON of dry food. Smart girl!

Go away, Ivan! Stall and die!

[meow mix]

24. its been continually moving west of the predictions..

i think its a good thing they evacuate NO

[Jack_Dawson]

25. Meow!

Howya been?

[meow mix]

32. hi fine here thanks =)

only suffering occasional relapse of clark-shock
KErRy is TeH CooL!

[Bake]

27. Word is that I-55 is totally northbound, on both sides.

There's not a hotel room in Mississippi from the coast all the way to Memphis. I know there are none in Jackson, three hours north of NOLA.

Bake
Jackson, MS

[cmf]

28. It could be ugly

But the worst case scenario (the eye making landfall to the west of the city) is more unlikely. Everyone I know in the city has left already (except a Civil engineer I know who works for the parish - he's in my prayers if it does happen).

[Bake]

29. We closed our NOLA office today, for the rest of the week at least.

People are trying to get the hell outta there.

Bake

[Catherine Vincent]

30. Overreaction by the Media again.

New Orleans probably won't get that much rain. All of that evacuating for nothing.

[shrike]

31. Nooooo!

I love New Orleans. One of my favorite cities.

[Jack_Dawson]

33. Bourbon Street could use a shower though...

you have to admit.

:beer:

[Nordic]

34. yeah it'll wash all the piss and vomit away

but replace it with two feet of mud.

[Nlighten1]

35. It isn't just Bourbon Street....

but your point is true. Bourbon Street reeks.

[shrike]

47. New Orleans' decay is part of what makes it interesting

[bvar22]

36. There will be more damage from...

...this panic than from the actual storm. My relatives (3rd generation New Orleans) are amused, but have taken reliable precautions to safely ride the storm out if Ivan does choose to hit New Orleans.

The successful evacuation of New Orleans is impossible.

Bob
45 year resident of New Orleans
& Gulf Coast

[aaronbees]

37. My sister...

My sister, her boyfriend, and a motley crew of cats and dogs were driving west and away from Big Easy today. As of 2:30, they'd just reached Baton Rouge after leaving New Orleans at 9:00 am. What a trek! But I'm glad they're not chancing things at all.

And here where I'm at (Texarkana) hotel rooms are booked and emergency shelters are on standby for those folks who can't make it farther north.

Hope for the best, otherwise New Orleans could be toast (soggy toast). :(

[Swamp Rat]

38. Dammit! NOWHERE in this article did it say, ""Ivan Will Sink New Orleans."

You are creating histeria that is NOT GOOD for those of us who cannot leave. As of this moment we DO NOT KNOW if it will directly hit New Orleans, thus destroying the city. What we DO need is calm heads and our Louisiana National Guard!

[Jack_Dawson]

40. Duh look at the HEADLINE

If Ivan DOES hit New Orleans, it WILL sink New Orleans. Under 12-18 feet of water. But only if it's a direct hit. Hey better to be over-prepared than under.

JD

[Swamp Rat]

43. What do you mean by "Duh" Jack_Dawson???

The title of this thread is: "Ivan Will Sink New Orleans." It does NOT reflect the title of the article!

"If Ivan DOES hit New Orleans, it WILL sink New Orleans." Why didn't you post THIS as the title of your thread? The one you used is disingenuous and just plain UNHELPFUL.

Anyway, this article is assuming the worst case scenario if the storm hits just WEST of the city. That is not the current reality. Before posting sensationalist articles, why don't you check the weather for yourself:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Jack_Dawson]

44. Sir, with all due respect...

I simply linked an article published earlier today in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. New Orleans may or may not be affected by a major hurricane. I thought New Orleans' unique geography was worthy of mention, that is all. If I somehow offended your sensibilities, I apologize profusely.

:eyes:

[Swamp Rat]

45. Look, if you're going to passive-agressive there's no need to apologise.

We here in New Orleans, who have NO ESCAPE, prefer rational and helpful threads.

"New Orleans may or may not be affected by a major hurricane." - this is closer to the truth.

Why don't you go to this link and look at the current models and predictions instead of a Seattle newspaper?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[YoQuieroLiberty]

41. It's below sea level; sits in a bowl

Not only will it flood horribly, but the water will stay. It's going to be a huge, sad mess. Hopefully they will all get out so the only thing lost is property.

[meow mix]

42. looking over the noaa info, id leave.

i mean whats the idea telling people not to panic.
RUUNN EEESH!

and if nothing happens then so much the better..

[ElectroPrincess]

46. Just checked the image ... updated every hour

DAMN DAMN and DOUBLE DAMN! The animated imagery show it on a path directly for the delta OR to the immediate left of it. Yes, if anyone is there. Leave now!!! This is going to be bad even if the levees hold.

[Jack_Dawson]

48. Link?

[nostamj]

49. not according to NOAA... here's the latest

[SheilaT]

50. Any major city

is difficult to evacuate, no matter what the circumstances. And in the case of hurricane evacuations, the "better safe than sorry" model has the evacuation area including places that in the end won't be particularly hard hit. So those folks decide that the next time they won't leave.

Several years ago I saw some sort of weather/disaster special that modeled precisely the kind of worst case scenario that Ivan may present to New Orleans, and it talked about the city remaining flooded for some time.

By the way, praying won't alter the track of the storm, nor will it insure anyone's survival. Leaving town will.

[timefordrinking.com]

51. Califronia next!

I remember in the 70's, California was supposed to fall into the ocean too. I'll believes it when I sees it.