ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL
Created by TRUTHISALL
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com
CURRENT POLL AVERAGES AND PROJECTIONS (%)
National - 15 popular polls.
State - latest state polls weighted by hist. 2-party
vote.
Projections assume 70% of undecided/other to Kerry.
______ Curr. Curr. Curr. Proj. Proj. Proj. Elec.
______ Nat. State Comb. Nat. State Comb. Votes
Kerry 48.6 46.4 47.5 53.5 52.9 53.2 331
Bush 44.5 44.3 44.4 46.5 47.1 46.8 207
Diff 4.1 2.2 3.2 6.9 5.9 6.4 124
Other 6.9 9.3 8.1
KERRY WIN PROBABILITIES (%)
Current Prob: latest poll proportional allocation of
und/other.
Proj. Prob: assumes 70% undecided/other to Kerry.
Proj. State Prob: Number of EV wins in 1000 simulation trials.
Prob 90.6 72.5 81.5 97.9 98.4 98.2
NATIONAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Impact of various und/other allocation assumptions
Alloc 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Vote 52.1 52.8 53.5 54.1 54.8
Prob 88.9 94.9 97.9 99.3 99.8
ELECTORAL VOTE / WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
One thousand election trials in each simulation.
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume: 60% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 52.0% of the vote.
Wins 93.4% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 315 electoral votes.
Max 406 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume: 70% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 52.9% of the vote.
Wins 98.4% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 331 electoral votes.
Max 422 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume: 80% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 53.9% of the vote.
Wins 99.6% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 347 electoral votes.
Max 446 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.78 52.6%
Rep 125.03 47.4%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
Data source: PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 48.00 48 47 47 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49
Aug 45.86 45 44 48 na na 44 47 na na 49 44
NATIONAL POPULAR TREND
Data source: PollingReport.com
Average of 10 national polls:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME,DEMCORP
Kerry projected vote equals the poll average
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.
Avg Polling Trend Projection
2004 Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 44.0 49.4 -5.4 46.4 53.6 -7.1
Feb 48.4 45.6 2.8 52.6 47.4 5.2
Mar 48.4 44.8 3.6 53.2 46.8 6.4
Apr 47.4 45.3 2.1 52.5 47.5 5.0
May 47.9 44.3 3.6 53.3 46.7 6.7
June 47.4 45.1 2.3 52.6 47.4 5.3
July 48.3 45.2 3.1 52.9 47.2 5.7
Aug 50.0 43.9 6.1 54.3 45.7 8.6
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES
48.60% Average (mean) of 15 national polls
4.85% Plus: Kerry 70% und/oth allocation
53.45% Equals: Projected Kerry vote
97.95% Kerry popular vote win probability
______ Kerry% Kerry% undecided/other
______ Date Kerry Bush 2-party 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
TIME 807 51 43 54.3 54.0 54.6 55.2 55.8 56.4
FOX 804 46 43 51.7 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
CNN/GAL 801 48 48 50.0 50.0 50.4 50.8 51.2 51.6
LAT 721 48 46 51.1 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.8 53.4
PEW 718 46 44 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
IBD 806 49 43 53.3 53.0 53.8 54.6 55.4 56.2
CBS 730 49 43 53.3 53.0 53.8 54.6 55.4 56.2
DEMC 805 52 45 53.6 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
ABC/WP 802 52 45 53.6 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
NWK 730 52 44 54.2 54.0 54.4 54.8 55.2 55.6
ZOGBY 729 48 43 52.7 52.5 53.4 54.3 55.2 56.1
AP 806 48 45 51.6 51.5 52.2 52.9 53.6 54.3
NBC/WSJ 721 45 47 48.9 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.2
ARG 801 49 45 52.1 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.4
QPAC 722 46 43 51.7 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
Mean ______ 48.6 44.5 52.2 52.1 52.8 53.5 54.1 54.8
ProbWin ______ ______ ______ 90.6 88.9 94.9 97.9 99.3 99.8
MoE 3.31
Std 1.69
95% Confidence Interval
Max ______ 51.9 47.8 55.5 55.4 56.1 56.8 57.5 58.2
Min ______ 45.3 41.2 48.9 48.8 49.4 50.1 50.8 51.5
x ______ 47.8 47.8 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Prob>x ______ 68.6 2.5 90.6 88.9 94.9 97.9 99.3 99.8
99% Confidence Interval
Max ______ 53.0 48.8 56.6
Min ______ 44.2 40.1 47.9
x ______ 48.8 48.8 50.0
Prob>x ______ 44.6 0.5 90.6
95% Confidence Limits:
Max = Mean + 1.96 * StdP
Min = Mean - 1.96 * StdP
99% Confidence Limits:
Max = Mean + 2.58 * StdP
Min = Mean - 2.58 * StdP
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Kerry National and State Vote Projections
State vote%: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.
National vote%:Weighted sum of projected % state
votes.
Probability of a state win is based on projected %
vote.
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 98.4% 52.9% 331
Bush 1.6% 47.1% 207
Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
Hist. Dem share vs Repub in last three presidential
elections.
______ Dem Kerry Kerry EV (election trials 1-10 of 1000)
______ Hist. Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
State 52.6% 52.9% 98.4% 343 331 295 321 327 304 318 306 310 380
AL 44.8 41.0 0.0
AK 37.6 40.7 0.0
AZ 48.8 49.9 49.0 10 10
AR 55.2 50.2 52.0 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 57.3 96.6 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3 43.1 9 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6 99.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1 96.2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 89.5 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 54.9 89.0 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.9 15.3 15
HI 59.0 55.7 92.3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0 0.3
IL 57.9 58.9 98.7 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9 15.3
IA 51.8 52.2 70.9 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6 1.8
KY 46.7 46.2 17.1 8 8
LA 49.2 44.4 8.1 9
ME 57.1 53.6 81.6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6 98.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 65.8 100.0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 56.9 95.8 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 52.6 74.2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3 0.0
MO 52.5 51.1 60.8 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8 3.6
NE 37.5 36.5 0.0
NV 49.9 51.3 62.7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 55.3 90.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 62.8 99.9 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 54.9 89.0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0 100.0 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 47.5 26.6 15 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2 0.1
OH 50.8 48.9 39.2 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2 0.3
OR 53.6 52.8 75.8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 55.2 90.3 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 67.2 100.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5 26.6 8 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8 9.7
TN 50.5 50.2 52.0 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6 3.2
UT 33.6 29.7 0.0
VT 59.4 60.1 99.4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 49.9 49.0 13 13 13 13 13 13
WA 55.9 55.2 90.3 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 53.6 81.6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WI 52.7 51.9 68.3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8 0.0
Avg 52.6% 52.9% 98.4% 343 331 295 321 327 304 318 306 310 380
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