What would be happening now if Bush had not taken us into Iraq?

[coloradodem2005]

Assume that 9/11 still happened, the Afghanistan war still happened and the economy still went down the crapper. And Bush is still "President". What would be going on now? Especially with respect to the election?

[w13rd0]

1. Well, were it not for Iraq...

...his approval would have tanked some time ago, and he wouldn't be able to threaten his critics by calling them "traitors in a time of war". But then again, maybe he would have actually finished the job in Afghanistan, which would have been a plus for him. But he's the kind of man that doesn't like to stick around to finish the job. He just likes to drill dry holes and run like hell. Just ask Laura.

[htuttle]

2. We'd probably be bummed out that he might get elected

If they actually had completed the mission in Afghanistan, and hadn't gone into Iraq, 3/4 of the world wouldn't hate us so much right now.

Without the additional inflation caused by instability in the oil markets (due to instability in the Middle East), the economy probably wouldn't be so down in the mouth, too (or at least it wouldn't hurt so much).

I knew the moment he invaded Iraq he was going to lose in 2004. It was hardly an occasion for celebration, though...

[grytpype]

3. If not for Iraq...

... he would not be in such bad shape. With the economy as bad as it is, he would still be in trouble. But you would not see independents and moderate Repugs turning their backs on him quite so much.

[lapfog_1]

4. Depends...

but I'm guessing that

1) we would not have Bin Laden

2) we would have 50,000 troops in Afghanistan, mostly mopping
up Taliban and terrorists. Would still face some stability
problems.

3) Recession would have been shorter, BUT outsourcing would still
be a problem. Economy would be marginally better.

4) If we had taken the "get tough" policy with Iraq (but not
invaded) we would now have inspectors on the ground there, and
still no WMDs. Possible lifting of most sanctions by now.

5) America would not be the most hated nation on earth.

6) 15,000 people (give or take) would still be alive.

7) Bush would still be pushing a very conservative social agenda,
and pushing the "terra" button.

[Jacobin]

5. A lot more people would be alive

A lot less money would have been spent.
A lot fewer people would have been maimed.
We wouldn't be as despised as a country in the world today.

Bush slowly tanking in the polls, as he was a year after 9/11.

[xcmt]

6. Without Iraq..

There would be Iran. It would have happened a little later in Bush's term, but it's clear this administration had an itchy trigger finger and a thirst for establishing a foothold in the middle east. They would have pounced on any intelligence showing that Iran let the 9/11 terrorists through their country, that Iran fosters anti-American sentiment, and that Iran is the true fundamentalist regime.

I also think the heat on the Anti-gay-marriage ban would be turned up. I think the evidence against Iran is much more damning than what we had going into Iraq, so there'd be less domestic dissent and debate about the military effort. It'd free Bush to start tweaking the domestic social agenda.

I also wouldn't have been surprised to see momentum behind a Defense of Religion amendment.

[Nederland]

7. Kerry wouldn't have a chance (nt)

[Kazak]

8. Saudi...

Seems to me, Iraq provided a nice little cover for the Saudi involvement in 911. We wouldn't have had any choice but to go after SA.

[tom_paine]

9. We would at least be using our military to root out al-Qaeda cells

Instead of opening up "new areas of business" for them...