In this thread, I answer questions about Peak Oil. Fire away!

[Peak_Oil]

Just to kick it off, here's a link to the latest newsletter from ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. Colin Campbell was the founder, and they're probably one of the more respectable institutions covering this issue today.

http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL44/newsletter44.pdf

Anyway, fire away!

[Killarney]

1. What do you think is our best bet for

an alternative energy source? If you had to choose one.

And why.

[Peak_Oil]

3. alt energy source? For what application?

For electricity, I'd think a combination of clean coal, nukyaler, wind, solar, hydro, and tides. Geothermal might work, if somebody figures out how to ramp it up in Kansas.

For transportation, a combination of electric trains, bicycles, biodiesel motorcycles, and gasoline/diesel cars and trucks.

For fertilizer and pesticides, your guess is as good as mine.

For air travel, diesel prop planes that can run on a couple of fuels sounds good to me.

I don't really think one magic bullet's going to kill this beast.

[NMDemDist2]

2. is there an alternative to plastics? or any on the horizon? n/t

[Peak_Oil]

6. Long view or short view?

We can make and use plastics for a long time, methinks. A hundred years from now? I think things might be so different from what we're used to that plastics might not be in their vocabulary anymore. Wood?

[NMDemDist2]

24. isn't plastic a oil derivative? hubby and I were discussing this

yesterday and talked about wood and copper stuff again. But natural=heavy. It is totally biodegradable and recyclable tho.


just give me the short version i guess..

[muriel_volestrangler]

27. Several man-made materials are derived from cellulose

eg cotton or wood pulp - celluloid, cellophane, rayon. Even the first 'plastic' - Parkesine.

Given the need, I think chemists will be able to produce good materials from wood etc. They may not be as cheap as plastics are now, but that may encourage a longer design lifetime - a good thing in itself.

[Radio-Active]

28. industrial hemp is the answer

to this issue.. cheap to grow and easily grown anywhere, it can easily be used to produce plastic (and hempseed oil can be used for fuel too)

Only problem is.. the stuff is illegal.

[pinniped]

4. Why don't we hear more about geothermal power these days...

and will it harm the earth in the long-term?

[Peak_Oil]

8. Dunno.

I'm not really that up on geothermal. Just to speculate, it might not be as easy to control that resource by the power companies if you just drill a hole to magma and use the energy.

I've heard that by piping that heat up to the surface you're cooling the inside of the earth a little. I have no idea what the effects of that might be. Maybe nothing.

[A_Possum]

25. *smile* from an ex-geologist

Well, no they aren't drilling to magma. It would melt the pipe, you know. ;)

Geothermal takes advantage of heat flow from the molten or partially molten crust to the shallow surface of the earth, sometimes from rock that is heated by magma "near" the surface (like 5 miles deep at Yellowstone), or hydrothermal energy (water/steam from geysers and fissures) or geopressure (water saturated with methane under tremendous pressure at great depths).

One of the problems with hydrothermal is the extremely corrosive water content, which plays h*ll with pipes and etc. The other problem with geothermal in general is that it's by nature geographically localized.

But one thing you don't have to worry about is cooling the inside of the earth. :) The heat inside the earth is unimaginable, and it's carried to the surface by convection endlessly (at least by human standards).

[cprise]

5. Questions

* What makes you think that most of us wouldn't just start riding busses until short-term alternatives become available?

* Food production is largely dependant on natural gas (for fertilizer) and there is abundant biofuel produced near the source for powering farm equipment. What is the problem?

I see hand-wringing and a LOT of inconvenience in our future. But nothing in an oil shortage that would cause mass starvation.

[Peak_Oil]

10. q&a

* What makes you think that most of us wouldn't just start riding busses until short-term alternatives become available?

I suspect we will be riding buses. What's going to fuel the buses? Nat gas for a while, maybe electricity, maybe hydrogen. Hydrogen is a net-energy loss, though. It's not really that great an idea. Hydrogen is kind of like using a battery. You have to power up the battery in the first place with some primary energy source, like coal or oil or wind or something.

* Food production is largely dependant on natural gas (for fertilizer) and there is abundant biofuel produced near the source for powering farm equipment. What is the problem?

You mean methane from feces? True. Last I saw, a dairy farm in NJ could power 90+ percent of its energy usage from that. Then, you have to get the stuff to the stores, refrigerate, pass to consumer... it's not the whole hog, but it's a good start. I'd hope that farmers would use that energy source more.

That's good for animal husbandry, but it's a little tougher to pull off if you're a soybean farmer.

I see hand-wringing and a LOT of inconvenience in our future. But nothing in an oil shortage that would cause mass starvation.

Give this a read.

http://www.dissidentvoice.org/July2004/Wheeler0730.htm

[cprise]

23. I think petroleum will fuel the busses

Their efficiency is what will count in the short term, and its not like oil will suddenly dry up in 6-8 weeks.

I am thinking of biodiesel and ethanol. They can easily deliver 10x the energy as animal waste for a given acreage of land. People here will need to eat less meat when energy is at a premium.

I am going to read The End Of Suburbia. I do believe that transportation pressures will (slowly) cause a great deal of re-urbanization. I would rather focus on the opportunies instead of the destruction of suburbia though.


Here is a link for you:
http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html


And a book for you: http://www.carfree.com
The whole concept here is that cities built to human scale during the old days of solar-power-everything have a lot to teach us. It shows how these places actually shine as communities in these times, and how very efficient they are. Cities can be planned around a general car-free concept by incorporating innovations like rail systems. It looks at Venice, Amsterdam, NYC, LA and others; it also proposes planning guidelines at many different scales.

[mhr]

7. Short Peak Oil Article Here

http://www.dallasforkerry.com/mediascope/brainzone/

[hang a left]

9. When do you think the effects of Peak Oil will hit us hard? n/t

[Peak_Oil]

14. Well, we already went to war for oil. That's a good start.

Or do you mean "When will my personal lifestyle degenerate to the point where I talk more about food production than I talk about Britney?"

That's a couple years away, but probably less than ten.

[rustydad]

11. Reality

What most people seem ill informed on is what the economic consequences of 'peak oil' will be. Oil, and later natural gas, extraction rates will without doubt begin to decline-in the very near future for oil. What this will mean is that those who sell oil will get the highest price desperate buyers will be able to pay. Today's price of $44 a barrel will seem redicuosly cheap in a year. Many predict prices in the three figures. Some economies will be able to adapt as their per capita use of oil is low. America on the other hand has the highest per capita use of oil. We are woofully dependent on using huge amounts of oil for transportation. The rising prices will put further strain and an economy that needs to borrow 1.5 billion dollars from foriegners a day just to avoid bankruptcy. If we avoid a world war over oil then we will survive to enjoy the mother of all financial meltdowns. That is what 'peak oil' is really all about. Bob

[Deja Q]

15. That much decline and cost spike within one year?

Many sources say there would be a decline in 'production', but equal yet inverse to the amount 'produced' going up before peak.

Of course, the way we find new ways to use oil, I can see prices skyrocketing...

World war seems inevitable, the US surely won't let its economy explode. Iraq is definitely the frst phase...

[anarchy1999]

12. Where is Mike Ruppert? He's been preaching about Peak Oil for several

years now? Do you have something new?

www.copvcia.com

[Peak_Oil]

19. Well, Matt Simmons is on the scene now.

Enlightening article below.

http://www.energybulletin.net/1264.html

Question: In looking for a silver lining in this rather dark pictures. One it would seem that this suggests that there will be in the not to distant future a diminishing of the money that the Wahhabi will have to spend on the kinds of bad things that we were talking about earlier in the day. The other thing is that this could well catalyze some of the actions that we’re talking about on Plan B. To give people as much clarity about how you see that pressure sort of kicking in, economic or maybe even political. What’s your timeline. Saying the data is as you say it is, I know that you are not sure it is, but let’s just say it is, when does it peak, how fast does the diminution kick in in a really powerful way would you say?

Matt Simmons: Well there isn’t, as far as I can determine, there isn’t any data on earth that we’ve created that will tells us that we basically have peaked. The best tool we have is what I euphemistically call a ‘rear view mirror,’ and it's just when you finally say, gosh isn’t that amazing. What I am now far more educated about on this peaking question, is that these are rate-sensitive fields, and the higher you produce the faster they'll be over, and this was an interesting conversation that I actually had in Kuwait when I presented my Saudi finds at the boardroom of the Petroleum Corporation, you know, maybe we're crazy to produce as high as we are, because we have nothing after oil, until we prepare something, so rate sensitivity becomes a really big issue, and how fast this could happen, well, it could basically be happening now, or it could be four years from now, or five, conceivably ten years from now, but I find ten years from now almost hard to believe, but I hope I am wrong, and I am probably overly worried about this. But since it takes so long to work out what I call ‘Plan Bs’, because ‘Plan Bs’ are no one thing, there are a prolife proliferation of things to do, before we do plan C, which is a totally new form of energy that we don’t even have on the drawing board today, then I think we should assume that the end is on hand, and start working feverishly, and then be presently surprised if we have five years or ten years.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. When will pump prices top $4/gallon in the US?

[Peak_Oil]

16. My super-rough guess?

Oil was up about 40% so far this year, so we're looking for another 100% increase from here. This site has some interesting graphs, it might have some answers for you.

http://www.oilnergy.com/1onymex.htm

I'm guessing 06 or 07, though.

You'd be paying more than that today in the UK already though.

[Deja Q]

18. Ah, but we've had to pay more military to stop the 'rebels' from

damaging the oil wells and refinery plants.

2006/2007 seems to fit most estimates, though some are optimistic enough to speculate 2010 or so.

Given that the mythical/superstitious year for the end of the world is 2012, if Kerry comes through on his alternative energy promises, the worst CAN be avoided.

[T Roosevelt]

17. Are you associated with Matthew Simmons?

I've read his stuff for some time, trying to keep tabs on things.

[Peak_Oil]

21. Not affiliated, but I read his stuff.

He seems to have some interesting things to say.

[hang a left]

20. Your comments on this article....

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=887522004

Deutsche warns oil price may hit $100

JAMES DOW ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT


OIL prices could potentially hit $100 per barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank warned yesterday - as the cost of US light crude hit a 21-year record of almost $44.

Adam Sieminski, Deutsche’s global energy strategist, claimed that oil supplies have become so tight in recent weeks that a serious disruption in the Middle East could send prices rocketing to unprecedented heights.

He said: "It is worth asking ourselves - ‘what would happen tomorrow if we lost four million barrels a day, due to some accident?’ Or let’s say Iraq’s two million barrels a day became unavailable. OPEC’s got no spare capacity. And that could be it - $100 per barrel."

Sieminski stressed that this was not a wild claim. "The last time OPEC was at 95-100 per cent capacity was in 1973-74, and again around 1980. And disruptions put prices up by 50 to 100 per cent.

. . .

more

[Peak_Oil]

22. Yukos?

I wonder what would happen if Russia quit exporting oil? Something like this?

If YUKOS has to reduce oil export, it may affect the world markets' oil supply, believes YUKOS CEO Steven Theede.

"If we have to reduce our export with regard to our situation, it will bring certain risk of decreasing the world markets' oil supply", Steven Theede told a press conference on Thursday.

At the same time, he pointed out that he did not know how it might affect the oil market's prices, adding that it probably would.

"YUKOS is Russia's largest oil exporter exporting 75% of its production", added Mr. Theede.

http://www.energybulletin.net/1187.html?PHPENERGYBULL=bed9153e4dd33b3607d1be9f6bbb4114

I imagine the price of oil would continue to climb.

[fairfaxvadem]

26. T Boone Pickens believes it...

saw an interview w/him the other week and he said basically that $30/barrel oil is over, $3 gallon gas easily this year, the Saudis aren't sitting on as much as their claiming and we need to rethink our energy plan. He said he had no concrete evidence that the Saudis were fudging their #s but his years of experience say it doesn't add up. And he's no bleeding heart tree hugger.

Also, a few months ago there was that report in Janes Defense about the major oil companies having to seriously downwardly adjust their reserve estimates, etc. Alot of them have been coming up with zilch.

Add to that the theory that part of the Iraq debacle is for us to have a stronghold over Mid-east Oil to checkmate China's economic growth.

Oil has gotten us into a world of trouble. Just like a drug addiction. Unbelievable.