Poll Junkies- intriguing teaser from ABC's "The Note."

[MallRat]

Hmmm... what does this mean?

"4. With all due respect to Newsweek and Gallup, hold onto your hat and hair for tonight's ABC News/ Washington Post poll. And please say 'boost' or 'bump,' and not 'bounce.'"

Newsweek: Kerry 52, Bush 44
Gallup: Kerry 50, Bush 47
Pre-convention ABC News: Bush 48, Kerry 47

Are we looking at a big jump in the ABC News poll tonight?

-MR

[Beetwasher]

1. I'd Be Surprised

ABC poll's have been notorious for their whoring, so it would be good news...

[underpants]

4. You'd have thought their last poll was written into stone tablets

Everyone is holding those results up as if they are the one and only truth the world has ever known. ABC (understandable, RW radio (predictable) and NPR (Cokie -miserable) mention it over and over. I wasn't on DU this weekend and I heard almost nothing about the Gallup poll.

[Zynx]

6. They actually just jump around a lot.

They once had Kerry leading on terrorism. I doubt that he ever did.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. No.

Something smaller.

[yankeeinlouisiana]

3. What's "The Note"?

And where did you find this?

Thanks!

[MallRat]

7. ABC's daily political news update.

It's a wrap-up of all the major media coverage and analysis... and the analysis of the analysis.

They give a nice overview of how things are playing nationwide and at the state level, full of links to local newspapers.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

They also do a wrap on the major morning shows, so you can see which stories got what kind of coverage on Today, GMA, American Morning, Faux & Friends, etc. (i.e., in today's edition, you can see how eager CNN was to whore their new poll numbers which are unflattering for Kerry).

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/Morning_Show_Wrap.html

[MasonJar]

5. It will be a negative for our side in some way or the other.

[YEM]

8. "Boost or Bump" is positive, right?

I would think with those terms, it is positive.

[Brotherjohn]

10. Yeah, to me, the teaser clearly implies a boost/bump/bounce for Kerry.

Otherwise, they wouldn't have said that. The mention of "bounce" only applies to the Convention, and Kerry. There's nothing for Bush to get a bump from. And while Newsweek shows Kerry well up, it also showed a relatively minor bump (along with Gallup's lack of one). Which is why they said "with all due respect".

I'm guessing the ABC/Post poll will show a significant post-convention bump for Kerry. Kerry-Edwards were behind in that poll by 1-2 points depending on whether Nader was included. I'm guessing tonight's ABC/WasPost poll will have Kerry up by 5-8pts (which is why they said "hold onto your hats"). This would put their poll more in alignment with most other polls (save for Gallup).

This is good, because (questions of Gallup's accuracy aside) the media are obviously using this poll to float the meme that Kerry "got no bounce" from his convention, and to continue to push the meme that "Kerry just can't get any traction". Amazing they're still saying that latter one, since he's been up (usually significantly) in nearly every poll for a month.

[annxburns]

9. Nope.

It will be negative. Believe me, the media just want to keep the race close. Don't be surprised if they have Bush up instead of Kerry.

Then the media will start the meme (which they are already pushing) "The more people see of Kerry the less they like him"

But keep working. Several factors on the ground are working against Bush - not the least of which is the grand jury investigation into the Plame leak. Also, unfortunately, Iraq is not going to be very stable in October. The reason there is not even more violence there now is because it is 117 degrees during the day. Christopher Dickey has a good column in Newsweek about this ....

Don't let it get ya down. I have a lot more confidence in Kerry this week then I did last week. He seems to realize it is going to be a hard fought grind. And he is known as a good closer who gets tougher as the fight goes on. The only polls that mean anything to me are those that are taken in October. Till then, Kerry just has to keep within 5-8 points of Shrubbie.

[Brotherjohn]

11. Any idea when they release the results of the ABC/WaPost poll? (n/t)

[lancdem]

12. It makes it sound like their results are different

from Gallup's and Newsweek's, making me think it has to show a nice bump for Kerry, since those two had no bounce and a mini bounce.

[grasswire]

13. I despise The Note

It's written by smarmy "Kool Kids" who deliver a little gossip, some "insider" tidbits, and who nanny the reporters into writing stories certain ways. Group think. I believe The Note contributes to the calcified ossified White House press corps lazy ways.

For a real, honest, balanced daily rundown, see Dan Froomkin's page at The Washington Post. It's the first thing I read each morning.

He not only cites the usual stories, but he actually links to blog stories! He's internet savvy enough to not be threatened by us bloggers and internet based researchers.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/administration/whbriefing/