Just Went to Zogby Website (gulp)

[ItsMyParty]

I've been trying to find out more info on the Zogby poll so just went to the website. Yes, the polls show that Kerry leads Bush 48 to 43. But then there was this in one of the "side" stories that said there was no boost for Kerry in the polls after the convention:

www.zogby.com

"A new Zogby poll out Friday shows the Kerry-Edwards ticket steady with 48 percent of likely voters. The same poll from July 7-9, listed Kerry-Edwards with 48 percent of the vote, three weeks before the convention. Political analysts say since 1964, the typical post-convention boost has given candidates a six-percent increase at the polls.

The new poll also shows the Bush-Cheney ticket losing a few points, and the undecided voter numbers increasing by three points."

Note: this was from their latest poll of 7/30. No wonder we are having terror alerts. Bush smells possibilities. I sure hope things straigten out in these polls over the next few weeks.

[NMDemDist2]

1. i heard Zogby say you had to wait 3-5 days for good numbers

people need to digest the new info and talk to family and friends etc

mid week polls will be more idictative. wonder if that's why we got a "terra alert" now? So folks wouldn't have time to think about K/E's message?

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Why do you think Ridge had a wonderful commercial

for his boss? I think their internal pollingn shows Kerry ahead

THey know it so DISTRACT

Oh and a side benefit, lay the ground work for martial law in NYC durign the puke convention. They KNOW people want to ahem, show their displeasure

[napi21]

17. I heard the same statement from Zogby.

Sit tight folks. I really don't expect 10 or 15%, more like 5 or6%.

I don't buy the zero at all.

If I remember right, Zogby said they were going to poll Sat & Sun, and probably have some decent info around tuesday.

[Pabst Blue Democrat]

2. This doesn't worry me....

I've been saying, I'm of the belief that there will be NO huge bounces for either side. The country is too polarized. A three point lead IS a huge lead.

[ClintonTyree]

4. Correctamundo.....................

there will be no bounces this year. This year is atypical in that the country is so polarized at this point the battle lines have been drawn. There aren't that many undecided voters, either you want Bush in or you want Bush out. That's how polarizing the Chimp has been.

Polls this year will mean nothing.

[ewagner]

5. Absolutely correct

The number of undecideds is very small indeed.

We are plarized beyond belief!

btw: a belated Welcome to DU :hi:

[ItsMyParty]

7. Pabst--it wasn't the actual spread, it was that it hadn't moved for

three weeks, including the convention. Kerry remained at 48 and gained nothing. The spread, spread out because Bush lost a few and the few he lost became "undecided". Like the article said: usually since the 1960's the candidate will tack another 6 points on to his post convention numbers. Of course, when nobody broadcasts conventions any more, what do we expect.

[diplomats]

10. Keep in mind that Zogby convention poll was done before Kerry spoke

and as that Newsweek poll shows, the jump came after that.

[HereSince1628]

12. In a polarized nation a bounce is likely to show somewhere unexpected

For example, rather than comparing the Kerry's favorables pre and post convention (which btw seems likely to minimize a boost since Kerry "bounced" on the VP announcement), it might be worth looking for changes between Bush favorables and unfavorables.

Also, what about looking at Kerry favorables vs Bush unfavorables. This would show movement in opposite directions if Kerry's campaign had scored some points.

Then again I'm not a pundit.

[Jack Rabbit]

6. This is a much different election

There are fewer undecided voters in the polls at this time then there have been in past elections, therefore less rubber for a bounce. Also, going into the convention, the lead had narrowed to 2-3 percent, and it is now at 5-8 in most polls (I've seen one that has him up by 11). It would seem that Kerry did get a small bounce in a year when a small bounce is about all that could be expected.

Kerry may loose some of that coming out of the GOP convention at the end of this month. It is imperative that he have a rapid reaction team in place, much like the effective one the Clinton campaign had in 1992. That would help keeping much of that post-convention bounce from eroding between now and when Bush's convention starts.

[ewagner]

9. Again, correct...and...

did you notice the repubs out in force trying to raise expectations of a bounce before and during the convention?

they know what's happening and they were trying desperately to make polarized nature of the voters into a negative for Kerry (no bounce etc.)

[Jack Rabbit]

14. I noticed that wondered why they would do that

did you notice the repubs out in force trying to raise expectations of a bounce before and during the convention?

After all, what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Bush the Frat Boy won't get a bounce out of New York comparable to the one Bush the Preppy got out of the GOP convention in 1988. Remember that one? Dukakis had a 17-point lead coming out of the Demo convention; Bush made most of it up during the the month of August, came out of the GOP convention with a good lead and never looked back.

[ItsMyParty]

11. Jack---I know that many are saying that it takes about a week to

see the real impact; but I think this time things are different. There different because the networks have all but ignored the convention (hardly any coverage). And the cable news is just constant tearing down dems and whoring for Bush. With that going on, I don't expect anything more to happen in a week or two or three. But they will go full blast in cheering Bush after the convention and that's when things become really hard and dangerous for us. I pray for the day the Dems take back the government and hope that move #1 is to slap "fairness in broadcasting" rules back onto these unholy, undemocratic, enemies of the people.

[Jack Rabbit]

22. Ignoring the convention

Whether its right or wrong, the networks didn't start ignoring the conventions this year. This has been going on for a while.

The party conventions used to mean something. Now they're anti-climatic. The last convention to go more than one ballot to choose a nominee was (I believe) the Democratic convention of 1952, which (IIRC) took three ballots to settle on Adlai Stevenson. Nowadays, we know who the niminee is by the end of March. There aren't even any big platform fights, as if anybody really cares what the platform says anyway.

The question will be whether the networks and cable news channels (other than Fox, which will be Fox) will give the GOP convention similar coverage. CNN might decide to be just a negative in their coverage of Bush and the Republicans in New York as they were of Kerry and the Democrats in Boston.

Also, the Republicans could end up with the same kind of culture wars hate fest they had in Houston in 1992. In that case, they'd probably be thankful if they got no coverage.

[Bluebear]

8. Read this Zogby page for encouraging news. Kerry leads the south!

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

[ItsMyParty]

13. plastic--I did read that and now am more confused than I usually am!!!

I would think that if we had made up that much ground in the south that the polls would start reading: Kerry 98, Bush 2!!! So it makes me wonder where the hell else is there this big bastion of republicans as strong or stronger than the south that is keeping this race close??

[Bluebear]

18. Me too. And now this terror level will complicate things

People who say oh pleeeeeeeease Bush keep us safe, other people who are sick and tired of alerts etc.

[sally343434]

15. This ain't 1962

The country is pretty polarized now, so there are fewer "undecideds" than at any time in recent history. It would be impossible to get a "bump" higher than the total undecideds.

This is more spin than anything else. The thinking is that if enough people repeat the mantra, "where's the bounce?", it will help promote the false perception of Kerry not "doing well enough." It's the same thing they tried to do placing the level of expectation for Kerry's acceptance speech into the stratosphere in an attempt to protray anything he said as a "failure." He fooled them, of course, and met even their ridiculous goal.

Now watch how they play the RNC. They will intentionally lower the level of expectation for Bush to the point where, if he doesn't begin vomiting into the camera lens, he will be heralded as "Churchillian."

No, this is The Cabal's playbook. They will continue to try to undercut Kerry in every way, including through these not-so-subtle manipluations of "expectations."

[Cocoa]

16. the polls will be way off this year

so many more people are paying attention this year, and voting, their definition of likely voter is useless.

[ItsMyParty]

19. another thing I picked up at the website was that when it came

to people who didn't vote in last election, etc., that Kerry leads by a 2 to 1 margin. Many polls are focusing on "likely" voters which they define as people who voted last time. This is where there could be a big surprise.

[izzie]

20. I wonder if this is still the only poll Rush thinks is right?

He went nuts talking about this once. It was years ago but I do not recall when. I do not hear him often.

[TruthIsAll]

21. The poll did NOT include Kerry's speech. Bush dropped from 46 to 43.

With Kerry leading before the speech by 48-43, I expect Zogby
will next show him leading 49-42, with 9 to other/undecided.

I project Kerry gets 6 of the 9, so he is really ahead 55-45.


Zogby America Poll. July 26-29, 2004. N=1,001 likely voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3.2 (total sample).
 
                  
General Election Trial Heats:
 
                  
 Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Other(vol.) Unsure       
    % % % %       
  ALL 43 48 2 8       
    Men 46 47 2 6       
    Women 40 49 2 9       
    East 33 55 - 12       
    South 46 48 1 5       
    Midwest 48 43 2 7       
    West 42 49 3 7       
                  
  Trend: 
  7/6-7/04 46 48 2 5       
                  
    Bush Kerry Nader Badnarik Peroutka Other (vol.) Unsure 
    % % % % % % % 
  7/26-29/04 41 46 3 - 1 1 8 
  7/6-7/04 44 47 2 1 - 1 5 
                
 

[mbee]

23. In my view, the whole reason Kerry was chosen to be the nominee

by the DLC instead of Al Gore is the military thing. I firmly believe they expect to carve off some of George Bush's own base who have been greatly hurt economically by the situation here at home and, also, for those sent to Iraq while their families are left to fend for themselves. Kerry will win in a landslide because, think about it, if Al Gore's votes had been counted he would have had a huge landslide. If Kerry can just a fraction of Bush's base voter fraud will probably become irelevant!

[IronLionZion]

24. The more they attack Kerry, the more I like him

Zogby is one of the more balanced polling groups but the VRWC is really playing up the "no bounce" meme. If they repeat it often enough, people will beleive it even though it's bull. And most people have already made up their minds so he can't get a huge bump but I bet he gets between 5 and 10 points ahead. ABC says he's 7 up (no pun intended) http://abcnews.go.com/wire/US/reuters20040801_91.html