TIA Electoral Vote Simulation Forecast: Kerry 52.72%, 326 EV

[TruthIsAll]

TIA Electoral Vote Simulation Forecast			
			
State Polls:
	Adjust.	Elect Votes	
Kerry	52.72%	326	
Bush	47.28%	212	
Kerry wins	98	of 100 trial runs	
			
			
National Polls:
	Actual Adjusted	
Kerry	49.11	53.23	
Bush	45.00	46.77	

13 National POLL AVERAGE Trend						
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	AdjKerry	AdjBush 	Diff
Jan 	40.8	51.6	-10.4	46.3	53.7	-7.5
Feb	47.4	46.0	1.4	52.0	48.0	4.1
Mar	47.4	44.7	2.6	52.9	47.1	5.8
Apr	46.5	45.3	1.2	52.2	47.8	4.5
May	46.5	44.4	2.1	52.9	47.1	5.7
June	46.7	45.7	1.0	52.0	48.0	4.0
July	49.1	45.0	4.1	53.2	46.8	6.5
			
July Bush Rating Avg.		48.0	
Other allocation--Kerry 	70%	


For the latest state polling data:                            
 
 http://www.electoral-vote.com                         
                                
For the latest national polling data:                         
 
http://www.pollingreport.com   

Forecast EV Simulation Using State Polling Data				
Run   EV Kerry Bush Winner	
1	355	183	Kerry	
2	338	200	Kerry	
3	342	196	Kerry	
4	351	187	Kerry	
5	363	175	Kerry	
6	296	242	Kerry	
7	311	227	Kerry	
8	340	198	Kerry	
9	332	206	Kerry	
10	342	196	Kerry	
11	345	193	Kerry	
12	355	183	Kerry	
13	354	184	Kerry	
14	306	232	Kerry	
15	365	173	Kerry	
16	336	202	Kerry	
17	344	194	Kerry	
18	329	209	Kerry	
19	340	198	Kerry	
20	314	224	Kerry	
21	366	172	Kerry	
22	329	209	Kerry	
23	361	177	Kerry	
24	347	191	Kerry	
25	354	184	Kerry	
26	366	172	Kerry	
27	328	210	Kerry	
28	331	207	Kerry	
29	300	238	Kerry	
30	356	182	Kerry	
31	313	225	Kerry	
32	331	207	Kerry	
33	334	204	Kerry	
34	321	217	Kerry	
35	355	183	Kerry	
36	348	190	Kerry	
37	281	257	Kerry	
38	319	219	Kerry	
39	327	211	Kerry	
40	290	248	Kerry	
41	360	178	Kerry	
42	335	203	Kerry	
43	302	236	Kerry	
44	331	207	Kerry	
45	320	218	Kerry	
46	336	202	Kerry	
47	321	217	Kerry	
48	328	210	Kerry	
49	336	202	Kerry	
50	366	172	Kerry	
51	353	185	Kerry	
52	359	179	Kerry	
53	362	176	Kerry	
54	333	205	Kerry	
55	335	203	Kerry	
56	269	269	Tie	
57	351	187	Kerry	
58	313	225	Kerry	
59	330	208	Kerry	
60	340	198	Kerry	
61	348	190	Kerry	
62	337	201	Kerry	
63	331	207	Kerry	
64	330	208	Kerry	
65	324	214	Kerry	
66	325	213	Kerry	
67	318	220	Kerry	
68	337	201	Kerry	
69	315	223	Kerry	
70	312	226	Kerry	
71	344	194	Kerry	
72	302	236	Kerry	
73	296	242	Kerry	
74	294	244	Kerry	
75	298	240	Kerry	
76	312	226	Kerry	
77	298	240	Kerry	
78	336	202	Kerry	
79	319	219	Kerry	
80	290	248	Kerry	
81	328	210	Kerry	
82	302	236	Kerry	
83	326	212	Kerry	
84	294	244	Kerry	
85	321	217	Kerry	
86	332	206	Kerry	
87	324	214	Kerry	
88	328	210	Kerry	
89	293	245	Kerry	
90	282	256	Kerry	
91	303	235	Kerry	
92	294	244	Kerry	
93	313	225	Kerry	
94	334	204	Kerry	
95	292	246	Kerry	
96	320	218	Kerry	
97	303	235	Kerry	
98	338	200	Kerry	
99	264	274	Bush	
100	331	207	Kerry	
..................................................................
	Elec	Kerry	         Probability
	Vote	Proj%	Spread	Kerry win
AL	9	45.0	(10.0)	 0.01 
AK	3	40.7	(18.6)	 0.00 
AZ*	10	47.6	(4.8)	 0.22 
AR*	6	50.6	1.2 	 0.58 
CA	55	57.2	14.4 	 0.99 
CO	9	49.3	(1.4)	 0.41 
CT	7	62.6	25.2 	 0.99 
DE	3	57.1	14.2 	 0.99 
DC	3	90.4	80.8 	 0.99 
FL*	27	53.3	6.6 	 0.90 
GA	15	45.9	(8.2)	 0.01 
HI	4	60.9	21.8 	 0.99 
ID	4	39.0	(22.0)	 0.00 
IL	21	60.0	20.0 	 0.99 
IN	11	44.4	(11.2)	 0.00 
IA*	7	51.5	3.0 	 0.69 
KS	6	41.6	(16.8)	 0.00 
KY	8	45.3	(9.4)	 0.01 
LA	9	49.0	(2.0)	 0.38 
ME	4	52.3	4.6 	 0.79 
MD	10	58.6	17.2 	 0.99 
MA	12	66.3	32.6 	 0.99 
MI*	17	54.2	8.4 	 0.98 
MN*	10	53.9	7.8 	 0.98 
MS	6	36.3	(27.4)	 0.00 
MO*	11	52.1	4.2 	 0.77 
MT	3	42.8	(14.4)	 0.00 
NE	5	36.5	(27.0)	 0.00 
NV*	5	51.4	2.8 	 0.67 
NH*	4	56.7	13.4 	 0.99 
NJ	15	56.6	13.2 	 0.99 
NM*	5	55.3	10.6 	 0.99 
NY	31	66.4	32.8 	 0.99 
NC	15	43.1	(13.8)	 0.00 
ND	3	37.2	(25.6)	 0.00 
OH*	20	51.1	2.2 	 0.63 
OK	7	35.2	(29.6)	 0.00 
OR*	7	56.2	12.4 	 0.99 
PA*	21	54.1	8.2 	 0.98 
RI	4	64.2	28.4 	 0.99 
SC	8	47.5	(5.0)	 0.20 
SD	3	44.8	(10.4)	 0.00 
TN*	11	50.8	1.6 	 0.60 
TX	34	42.6	(14.8)	 0.00 
UT	5	29.7	(40.6)	 0.00 
VT	3	60.1	20.2 	 0.99 
VA	13	48.5	(3.0)	 0.32 
WA*	11	55.1	10.2 	 0.99 
WV*	5	47.2	(5.6)	 0.16 
WI*	10	55.1	10.2 	 0.99 
WY	3	30.8	(38.4)	 0.00 
	538			

.......................................... 

Notes:
1) State and 13 National polls are adjusted assuming that
70% of undecided/Nader/others will split for Kerry.           
                
2) State polls are weighted by its ratio of total votes cast
in the last 3 elections
3) Third party candidates not considered for this analysis.   
                           
4) The analysis is only as good as the quality of polling
data. The 13 national polls include CNN/Gallup, Fox and IBD.
It is fair to say that they have a tendency to pull Kerry's
average numbers down somewhat. The good news is that the
state polling appears to track within 1% of the national
polls, which are more current.                                
5) State polls are taken over weeks, while National polls are
taken over a period of days.
polls are probably more current.                              
 

Over the last three presidential elections:                   
         
Total Votes (millions)                         
Dem: 138.75 (52.60%)                            
Rep: 125.03 (47.4%)                             

Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers applied to
probability distributions of uncertain events in order to
generate a range of
sampled outcome scenarios. For the analysis, I used the
latest state polling numbers to simulate an election outcome.

                                
In this case, an "event" is defined as Kerry's
forecast share of a
state's popular vote. An "outcome" is the simulated
probability of Kerry winning the election, based on the total
electoral votes for the states he "wins"..          
                     
                                
For example, if we run 100 trials in the simulation and
Kerry's
electoral vote total exceeds 269 in 90 of the 100
trials, we can reasonably conclude that he has a 90%
probability of winning the election. Each state poll is
assumed to have a
margin of error of +/-4% and a uniform distribution
around the polling numbers.                                   
                       
                                
We assign a probability of Kerry winning each state,
determined by the latest polling numbers.

For example, these are the probabilities that Kerry
would win the following states:
Kansas: .001                            
New York: .999                          
Florida: .807                           

This means that if the latest Kansas poll is 60% Bush, 40%
Kerry, a 20% spread,then Kerry has a 1 in 1,000 chance of
winning the state. 
                        
In the case of a close state, like Florida, a Kerry lead of 5%
assigns him an 80.7% probability of winning the state.        
                      
                                
Excel's random generator function returns a random  
number X between 0 and 1. If X is less than
the probability of Kerry winning the state, the state goes to
Kerry, otherwise it goes to Bush.                             
 
                                
For instance, if X = .72 for Florida, then Kerry wins the
state, since X = 72 is LESS than the .807
probability that Kerry will win FL, based on the latest polls
which have him leading by 5%.                           
                                
The simulation runs identically for all states. The electoral
votes are
summed for the states which fall in Kerry's column.           
               
                                
The model assumes that Kerry's polling  numbers in each state
will increase by 70% of the undecided/other vote.
This assumption is based on historical data, which show that
undecideds break for the challenger over 80% of the time. .
                                                              
 
For example, assume Kerry is leading in a state by 46%-44%.
with 10% undecided. Allocating 70% of the 10% to Kerry adds 7%
to his total. The adjusted projection is now Kerry winning by
53-47%.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. 99% and 98% probability in NH and PA (respectively)??

That don't sound right...

[TruthIsAll]

2. They may sound high but both states are outside the MoE (+/4%)

Recall that the higher the spread between Kerry and Bush, the higher the probability of a Kerry win..

If Kerry is ahead of Bush by over 8% (which is beyond the MoE), than he has a minimum win probability of 97.5%.

[Wickerman]

3. Looks sound

nice work, thorough. Given what we know today I think the traditional 70% of the undecided is reasonable. Whatever Rovian tricks up the sleeve may change that, but I like your prediction/analysis.
:thumbsup:

[dumpster_baby]

4. thanks for posting this! -eom

[ronnykmarshall]

5. Sweet!

[TruthIsAll]

6. Kerry has 88% win probability, if he gets just 51% of Nader/undecided.

And we know that is extremely conservative. He should get 70%.


TIA Electoral Vote Simulation Forecast			
			
State Polls:
	Proj. 	Expected EV	
Kerry	51.10%	298
Bush	48.90%	240

Kerry wins	88 of 100 trial runs	
			
			
13 National Polls:	
      Act. 	Proj.	
Kerry	49.11	52.11	
Bush	45.00	47.89	
			
Avg July Bush Rating:48.0	
Other allocation-Kerry:	51%	

[TexasSissy]

7. Wow. Thanks for this info. I don't understand it all, but it looksgreat

[yellowcanine]

8. Totals are very close to Zogby Interactive - 322-205.

Interesting.