My geographic analysis of the recall

[ButterflyBlood]

Eastern California: Mormon country. Simon and McClintock will lead here. Arnold after them. Bustamante barely registers.

South of LA: McClintock and Arnold about neck and neck. Bustamante gets the Hispanic vote but not much else.

LA: Bustamante and Arnold in a dead heat. Everyone else barely registers.

Coastline from San Francisco to LA: Bustamante beats out Arnold by a bit. Simon and McClintock get next to nothing.

San Francisco: Bustamante in a landslide. Arnold getting around the same amount as Camejo. Conservative candidates getting approx. 14 votes total.

North of SF: Arnold wins here. Bustamante about ties the total conservative vote.

Final tally: Bustamante edges out Arnold.

What do you think?

[DoctorBombay]

1. North of SF?

If you are talking like Marin and Sonoma,and even maybe Mendocino counties, those are pretty liberal places and I think Bustamente will win there.

Also, what of the Central Valley? That could be the tipping point. Usually middle of the road, but Bustamente is from Fresno.

I'd be interested to see how the San Diego conservative vote splits between the three Repukes.

The rest seems to make sense.

[ButterflyBlood]

2. I meant north of the whole bay area

Which I include those counties in. it's apparentely kind of conservative up there, but not like the Mormons or the rich pigs from Orange County.

I don't know too much of the Central Valley, but I'll guess Bustamante and Arnold in a dead heat. Arnold probably would carry if it Bustamante wasn't from Fesno

[DoctorBombay]

5. Northern Coast

Both Gore in 2002 and Davis in 2002 carried Marin and Sonoma by healthy margains, and also carried Napa, Lake, Mendocino, and Humboldt counties as well, so I think the Northern Coast is safe. Marin is almost as liberal as SF proper, and I've spent a lot of time in Sonoma, and it is very lefty-friendly as well. The other counties may be more in play.

It really could come down to Sacramento and the Central Valley.

I'm in LA, and it will probably be pretty even between Ah-nuld and Cruz. If it were another Repuke, Bustamente would have the edge.

[Clete]

7. Above the wine country going around Lassen.

Shasta, Crescent City and thereabouts, maybe with the exception of part of Humboldt county is solidly Repuke and almost militia style in it's hatred of government.

[DoctorBombay]

8. Yeah, the father North you go, the more conservative it gets

Sonoma is solid, then the numbers drop as you go up. There are a lot of green types that balance it out, but the northernmost county on the coast, Del Norte, was carried by both Bush and Simon.

Here's the map:





ON EDIT: this is from the 2002 Gubinatorial election.

[CarlBallard]

3. Where's Huffington?

I don't know enough about your state, but that looks reasonable with the exception that you're not mentioning one of the higher profile candidates. Obviously your analysis won't include all the candidates, so maybe you know something I don't.

[ButterflyBlood]

4. I don't live in California

I'm just guessing from what I know. But I'd say she get almost nothing in the eastern and far southern parts of the state, a minor amount in LA and the coastline from that to San Francisco, and a good showing in SF, probably close to Arnold. But that's about it.

[mitchtv]

6. arianna Nader?

Its time for her to quit

[CarlBallard]

10. Probably but

I think she'll take more votes from Arnold than Nader took from Bush. Because they are closer on social issues. Still she'll take more from the Dems than the Repubs.

[Mz Pip]

9. Arianna's polling at 4%

I think her numbers will go up up but not by much.

This will turn into a three way race - Bustamante, Ah-nold and McClintock. I can see pressure being put on Simon to bow out. He's an annoying little twit and is taking votes away from McClintock. The GOP spin machine will have to wwork overtime to get more focus on McClintock. He's got those solid conservative credentials but is about as interesting as watching paint dry.

MzPip
:dem:

[David__77]

11. Bustamante leads Arnie...

See new Field poll. As people realize that he's a Republican, he will lose support to his left. As people realize he's a "liberal Republican," he will lose more support on the right. Bustamante will beat him.