TIA adjusted Poll numbers: Kerry 53.16%, Bush 46.84%

[TruthIsAll]

The TIA Adjusted Poll numbers are calculated as follows:
Adj. Kerry = Kerry +2/3(100-Kerry-Bush)

I assume that at least 2/3 of the remaining (undecided/Nader) votes split for Kerry. Historically, this has been the case for the challenger.


Based on a 12-POLL AVERAGE:

.......................TIA Adjusted
......Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 40.78 51.56 -10.8 45.88 54.12 -8.23
Feb 47.44 46.00 1.44 51.81 48.19 3.62
Mar 47.36 44.73 2.64 52.63 47.37 5.26
Apr 46.45 45.27 1.18 51.96 48.04 3.93
May 46.50 44.42 2.08 52.55 47.45 5.10

June 47.17 43.83 3.33 53.16 46.84 6.32

Kerry is pulling away. Look for a 10+ point lead after the Dem convention.

[theoceansnerves]

1. but!

according to cnn, fox, abcnbccbs, this will be the closest election in history! too close to call!

[newsguyatl]

2. good, let the media keep doing this

the LAST thing we want is for kerry to take a sizable lead and force a bigger turnout for bush voters (or less of a turnout for kerry voters.)

[TruthIsAll]

3. No, we want kerry far ahead...so Bush can't steal it.

newsguyatl, I'm surprised you of all people would say that.

If the polls are close (within +/-3%) Kerry gets Diebolded. Just like Gore did.

Kerry needs to be up 8 points before the election - beyond the 3% MOE.

You will be just as motivated to vote for Kerry if he is way up.

And the bigger his lead, the bigger the bandwagon effect.

Everyone loves a winner.

[dusty64]

6. Sounds great to me.

I simply can NOT believe the numbers have barely budged from 2000 considering the complete and utter mess this regime has made of everything they have touched.

[Cheswick2.0]

11. I think Newsguy is saying we don't want a huge lead in the polls now

to turn out the repug base. We certainly do want one at election day.

[TruthIsAll]

4. Media Bushit! Kerry will win by at least 7 million votes.

My guess:

Kerry: 57mm
Bush: 48mm
Nader: 1mm

[oscar111]

5. TIA?????

A friendly questioner here ====

i read a lot of politics, so pls tell all what TIA is. I never saw it anywhere.

Plus, why does your first post have two entries for each date? one to the right of the first?

That table doesnt show K pulling away. shows a rise, then slight decline.

Wonder if you experts could tell me which polls were closest on showing the real popular vote resuts in2000?
Thanks, mon ami !
Oscar111

[TruthIsAll]

8. Answers are right here...

TIA is just a shortcut for TruthIsAll

The two sets of entries reflect the average poll results by month and the adjusted poll results. See the formula? I want to account for the fact that historically, undecideds always split heavily for the challenger, so Kerry is ahead by more than the polls suggest.

Zogby was closest in 2000. He was within 1%.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

7. Please provide a link

[TruthIsAll]

9. Just go to pollingreport.com

TIA

[TruthIsAll]

10. And Kerry must be even further ahead, since the Repuke pollsters

cannot be trusted.

You know the average is biased for Bush by the Repuke media to keep it close enough for him to steal.

[Cat Atomic]

12. Polls will be 60/40 in Kerry's favor, and Bush will magically win.

All his votes will come from electronic voting counties. I can't wait to see the reaction to that shit.

Seriously- I'm not kidding. I thought that Bush wouldn't steal it if the numbers were close, but the more I think of it... I think he would. So far, their subversion of democracy has been extremely blatant and overt. They just don't care how obvious it is.

I really think an overt theft of the election would be completely in character for this administration. After all, the first one was pretty 'in your face', and they skated right through it.

[cybildisobedience]

13. I'm with you, Cat

I don't think there is any scenario where Bush WOULDN'T lie, cheat and steal to stay in power. It's a given.
what we have to do is plan how we're going to deal with it.
Bev and all the other activists are doing an incredible job with the media -- actually better than I thought possible, given the state of our media.
But we need to do more in the way of planning for our response.

[TruthIsAll]

14. He could never get away with stealing a 60-40 election.

Now 53-47 or less, maybe. That would be within a single poll MOE.
But... for 12 polls to average 53% for Kerry, this would be near impossible.

[Lex]

15. When he names Edwards as his VP

Kerry will shoot up a few more points and those points will stay (not just a temp bounce).

This is JMHO.