What are the chances of taking back congress?

[fujiyama]

There's a special election this week in South Dakota. Apparently the dems have a good candidate there and may be able to pick up a seat.

What are the numbers in congress? I think I heard the difference was 12...is that possible to make up? I heard many were gerrymandered so there aren't many competetive seats...

Any possibility of regaining the majority in the house? I think the senate is possible but even that's goin to be tough.

[Birthmark]

1. I'm no expert, but...

...I think that the chances are much better than the polls might indicate. I have yet to meet anyone in real life who will stand up for Bush. There is widespread disappointment (not to mention anger) at the way Bush has handled his job. This has spilled over to Republicans generally, IMO. I think that they are in much bigger trouble than they care to even think about at this point.

[DaveSZ]

2. The Senate

We have some great candidates running for the Senate this year, and I think we can take it back!

[Claire Beth]

9. same here! that's my thinking too... n/t

[progdonkey]

3. I think we have a good chance in the Senate...

... not so sure about the House. The polls in each of the states don't take into account Bush's awful approval rating, and that can have a huge effect in the House and Senate races.

For instance, say you have someone who likes a Republican for Senate, but he's really fed up with Bush. If a poller calls him and asks him if he supports so and so for Senate, he'd say yes, and it would show up in the poll. However, he's so fed up with Bush that he might just stay home from the election; this of course also means that the Senate candidate he supports won't get his vote, either.

I don't know how many people fit into this situation, but they do exist and they could be what makes the difference in those House and Senate races.

Something else, though, is that the House might not be as bad next term, even if Dems are still in the minority. This is because there is a lot of speculation that Tom DeLay, the House Majority Leader and possibly Satan himself, may end up being indicted for all kinds of evil shit. If he's indicted, it not only almost guarantees his Democratic challenger a win, but can you imagine how demoralized the House GOP members would be if they lost their Party Leader due to a federal indictment? :nopity: Also, DeLay is an extremely harsh Leader who keeps all of the party members in line. Without him, the more moderate GOP House members might be willing to break from the extremists on many issues.

Bottom line is that while we do have a great chance of taking back one, if not both, of the chambers of Congress, if certain Senators and Representatives are defeated (and with Kerry as president), the Republicans' evil plans will be severely handicapped--even with a majority.

[Gman]

4. My parish priest says it will take a miracle to change things now

he doesn't think people have it in them to force change. Note that he is a Catholic priest that very much disagrees with the RW agenda.

[cap]

6. have him start lobbying the Almighty!!!

ask the saints for an intercession!!!

[Gman]

11. Believe me... he already is

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. "Roll Call" Editor...Tim Curran

who was on C-Span a couple of weeks ago said the Dems have a VERY GOOD chance of taking back BOTH the HOUSE and SENATE.

The numbers are 12 in the House. 2 in the Senate. 1 in the WH.

12...2 & 1! 12....2 & 1! We CAN do this. We can take our government back!

[GreenPartyVoter]

7. If the Repubs don't cheat, there's a chance

[kentuck]

8. I think there will be some new Repubs in the unemployment line....

Hopefully enough to re-claim our government.

[ronatchig]

10. It depends

on how effectively Bushco can be hung around the neck of all the rethug candidates. I believe he will be a very heavy albatross to them. I have decided to hold my nose and attend as many Rethug candidates rallies to try to goad them into stating their unswerving support of Bush whenever possible here in NC 10th. Also I am flooding the local newspapers with Ltte's and webblogs with opinions on the willingness of Moretz and others to enable the incompetent Nazis in power.

[Beetwasher]

12. The Dems Are In Better Shape Than the Repubs Were In '94

The Repubs did it in '94 and needed a lot more seats I believe.

[NewJeffCT]

13. 12 should be correct - GOP is 228 to 205 now, I think

so, a 12 seat swing our way would make it 217 Good Guys, 216 Bad Guys.

[really-looney]

18. There is hope

There are very few competitive seats but there is a chance. Who would think we would have elected a Democrat in Kentucky and would be on the verge of election one in South Dakota?

The one thing that troubles me is that in '94, the election was about the Big Dogs policies (gays in the military, Hillary Care, etc) and the Congress and down ballot Democrats paid the price. In this election, Bush is on the ballot for people to register their anger at so the congress, House and Senate are a little tougher than in 94.

Still, there is hope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[quinnox]

14. it's possible

The Senate has better chances than the House. My guess is the Democrats will retake the Senate and narrow the Republicans lead in the House, but the GOP will stay in control there.

[PATRICK]

15. If for locals it is business as usual

then no. My district has been crafted to be Repug so that briefly a whole bevy of right wing beauties have been vying for a sure thing. Amo Houghton, a rare anti-war proposition voter retired. The moderate he backed was talked out of it by the governor. For one reason the moderate had a tough time holding onto his own state seat and it would probably go Dem. For another, the GOP is suddenly very afraid of a fierce primary.

Ms. Barend(26 yrs old), a very promising and talented staffer of Sens. Clinton and Moynihan, a stupendous resume and charm, her family also well know in respectable GOP politics I think could bury the schmoes(all white male insufferable cons) especially if they wasted themselves fighting for the easy spoils.

If the GOP pushes its arrogance outside relying on safe incumbency, the chance for coattails helping great Dem candidates is large indeed. Their reaction or continued lust for ousting safe incumbents for rabid rubber stampers for an agenda no majority of Americans would ever support is giving us an advantage, a challenge and an increased menace. However, looking at the map, I bet these are still too few to regain the House unless something big cracks the local charm of GOP incumbents.

Something to fight for, definitely.

[BabsSong]

16. I didn't realize until just last week that the chances are looking very

good. Apparently in a number of districts, Bush is a drag for the republicans on the ticket who are trying to distance themselves from him. It's going to be interesting to see in the fall what kind of flaps emerge in the Senate and the House if that's the case---in other words, there will be those not marching in lockstep so as to show their constituents that they oppose him. I think with funneling money into certain designated areas, we can take back the Senate and narrow the gap in the House or outright win it.

[Peregrine]

17. Florida

The open seat is looking iffy for Democrats for Florida. The only positive is that the Repubs are feeding on one another.