Do you think Hoeffel can beat Specter?

[ButterflyBlood]

Poll question: Do you think Hoeffel can beat Specter?

note "CAN" not "WILL".

While I say Specter has the edge, Hoeffel could pull this off. First of all he has much more money, Specter is almost broke. Secondly, the Toomey supporters probably won't be voting for Specter and will stay home (it'd be great if there was a third party but according to DCPoliticalReport the only other candidate running is an independent with an Arab-sounding name, aka don't bet on any GOP votes being siphoned.) I posted a Freeper thread awhile back that some Freepers are planning on voting for Hoeffel out of spite and to stop Specter from heading the Judiciary Committee. Thirdly, Specter almost lost in '92, the last time he had a serious opponent. And finally, Hoeffel should win Philadelphia by a wider margin than Democrats do against Specter, and cut into his margins in the suburbs due to his location. Hoeffel should do well in the blue collar areas, and could eke out a win. It'll be tough, but in the end just know we won't be seeing a Senator Toomey. Thank God for that.

[Spirochete]

1. And this year

there should be a big Dem turnout, with a lot of people showing up to vote against Bush. While they're at it, they'll probably punch the ticket for Hoeffel, too.

[Guaranteed]

2. I think that second point is very important. nt

[Guaranteed]

3. BTW what do we know about Hoeffel?

Where would we put the guy on the political spectrum?

I realize that Specter isn't even really all that moderate, but I wonder if we could yank him by the neck on a couple of issues and make him look even more liberal than he is, and knock out his base.

It would take a special candidate to do that, though, especially against such a veteran senator.

So who's this guy Hoeffel?

[TreasonousBastard]

5. Don't know too much about him, but...

he seems to be leaning appropriately toward the left.

If it means anything, Wayne Lutz hates him, and anyone Lutz hates is probably OK. Hoeffel is his latest obsession:

http://www.stopjoehoeffel.org/hoeffelintro.html

Lutz is the most over-the-top wingnut that I have personally ever met. He's the reason for my nick here-- he called me and some friends of mine treasonous bastards a while back, and I wear the monicker with pride.

[Guaranteed]

6. In any case, the more I think about it

the more ripe Specter becomes in my mind. It sounds as if he's alienated the fundies with abortion issue, and some other factions with other issues. If Hoeffel comes out and starts calling him a liberal- odd strategy, I know, PULLING him TOWARD you, instead of pushing him away- I think we could make a whole lot of people stay home on election day.

Of course, the only problem with that is that it's a presidential election. The Bush supporter fundies are going to show up to vote for him, and they'll probably just check off Specter anyway.

Interesting strategy, though. Specter certainly is weak in his support.

[yankeedem]

7. Oh my god look at the misspellings

Right on the front page.

[Sandpiper]

4. I think Hoeffel has a better than average chance

Simply because the long, bloody, primary has weakened Specter and shown that there is a schism within the GOP, between far right and the moderates.

A bitter and divided Republican party does nothing but help Hoeffel's chances.

[RobinA]

8. Hoeffel

I think he has very little chance. Specter is moderate enough that he doesn't really scare anybody. Some Repubs who really can't stand Bush will hold their noses and vote for Kerry, but they'll vote for Specter so that they can sleep at night knowing they haven't totally entered the dark side. I don't think it will be close.

[Mandate My Ass]

10. Agreed

I'm just hoping Toomey hasn't scared Specter farther right than he normally positions himself because of the close call in the primary.

At least Specter is pro-choice and fairly far to the left of man-on-dog Santorum on social issues.

[hexola]

9. Good analysis...

I was sort of thinking Specter would be better to have around if Kerry wins...then target Santorum 2006...then we will be "conservative free." We'll pick up Specter's seat in Kerry's second term!

But you make sound like Hoffel could do it...

[MoonRiver]

11. If the Dems and moderate Repubs of PA have an ounce of common sense,

they'll do what they can to bring control of the Senate back to the sane party. Btw, I know nothing about the PA Dem candidate. But I do know what's at stake for our country this year.

[AlinPA]

12. Hoeffel is an unknown in Western PA. n/t