Mark Shields--How to predict the 2004 election

[Gloria]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/26/crystal.ball/index.html

How to predict the 2004 election
You, too, can be a prophet, sage and seer

Monday, April 26, 2004 Posted: 3:58 PM EDT (1958 GMT)

(snip)

Here is the secret decoder ring of 2004 presidential politics. Recall that the 2000 race between Democrat Al Gore and George W. Bush was about as close to a dead-heat finish as possible.

Here are questions you simply ask yourself between now and Election Day: 1) How many people do you know or meet who voted for Al Gore in 2000 and who now say they intend to switch and vote for George W. Bush in 2004, and 2) How many people do you know or meet who voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and now intend not to vote for him in 2004?

From my own limited and admittedly unrepresentative samplings, the second group -- with six months still to go in this campaign -- is larger than the first group, and if that turns out to be the case, then John Kerry will be the first former naval officer from Massachusetts to win the White House in 44 years.

Try it for yourself, and let me know what you find.

[Old and In the Way]

1. This guy's been ripping off my posts here at DU.

I cracked the secret code 1st...

[blm]

3. heheh...I'll vouch for you.

.

[Mz Pip]

5. Mine too!

I've thought the same.

Lot's of moderates and independents voted for Bush because the wanted a change (not like this, though) and also fell for the hooey about Bush being a compassionate conservative.

Case in point: My husband's conservative Republican business partner absolutely hates Bush. He may not vote for Kerry but he will stay home before he votes for Bush. I've heard plenty of similar stories from friends around the country.

MzPip
:dem:

[Sticky]

2. Sounds promising...

Mark Shields has been around Washington a lot of years.


:bounce:

[tcfrogs]

4. That's a silly way to determine the election outcome

Sorry, but using Mark Shields and his group of friends as a gauge of the election outcome is silly. I'm sure his Washington buddies are just as liberal as he is. Same for those of us on DU - we mostly don't associate or more significantly talk politics with those we don't agree.

[newsguyatl]

7. ummm, welcome to du

:shrug:

[BillZBubb]

8. Funny, I talk politics more with those I don't agree with

Unfortunately, though, I've found more who voted for Gore who will now vote for Bush* (they like us killing Arabs apparently) than are leaving Bush*. But, I'm in Texas so what can you expect.

[sendero]

9. what you mean...

... "we", paleface?

[DoYouEverWonder]

10. You might consider

speaking for yourself and not making assumptions about groups of people.

I am certainly more than willing to talk with anyone, whether they agree with me or not. However, I have been known to send people from the room screaming.

[MajorFlaw]

13. I talk politics with devout Repugs almost daily, and he makes a strong

argument. I have been almost as surprised by the number of registered R's who will not vote for shrub as I am by the tortuous rationalization that they use to justify this "betrayal". I have yet to speak with anyone who voted for president Gore last time but intends to vote for shrub in November. The chimp in chief has reminded regular Dem's why they disliked him 4 years ago, and has shown regular Repugs that they really didn't know him as well as they thought. Kerry summed it up well: "nobody expected * to fuck it up this badly".

[rumguy]

16. I talk to lots of people who are not democratic

my dad, a vietnam vet, who may have voted for bush, is solidly behind Kerry now...

ha ha

[lupita]

21. He was trying to be funny...

That was obvious

[NMDemDist2]

6. my apolitical staff have signed up to vote

i am signing up 4 employees who I never even asked or talked politics with. Each and every one of them brought it up and then was surprised when I told them I had the forms hehehehe

I keep my politics out of my business, but was happy! to assist my employees to exercise their rights :)

[tcfrogs]

12. Fine, fine...

...I don't talk politics around my office. I consider it an occupationl risk.

I won't throw around the word "we" any longer...

If I asked those around me, Bush would beat Kerry 75-25%, if not by more.

My point was you can't rely on anecdotal evidence based on those you're around.

[Avalux]

14. I see...

must be where you got the "we mostly don't associate or more significantly talk politics with those we don't agree" statement. Have a wonderful evening!
:hi:

[rumguy]

18. but we can look at those switching sides

that is a sign of disgust at Bush

and there is a rising tide of disgust and hatred directed towads shrub and his minions

[proud patriot]

11. hee hee

:D boy that makes me smile .

This being my first election to follow closely
I'm so relieved to hear this because of my limited
sampling I'd have to say the second group is larger
as well :D

[absolutezero]

15. i know one person switching from gore to bush

but i've almost got her convinced that bush is the antichrist...and a few people who were for bush in 2000 and are more rabid now than they were four yrs ago

i do, however, know a huge number of first time voters (mostly 18-21 yr olds who were never able to vote in the 2000 election, including myself) who HATE chimpy

[alcuno]

17. You have to be the anti-christ to lose a vote?

Amazing.

[Christ was Socialist]

19. I know many who are going bush

A few are in college and voting for the first time. Don't worry though, they were lost and empty, they wanted to create bands, did a lot of drugs when they were younger, were adopted et cetra, so basically they are lost, but they found a gang to belong to, they are harping and jingoistic now, and follow the radical line. Its the same trap religion (conservative/fundamenalism) has. Think about the number of hardcore christians that were drunks, druggies, low self esteem et cetra. If you have nothing to contribute to society religion tells you that you are special. There is a reason the most brilliant men (of sense) have not been religious. So most of those who are being "saved" are going straight to bush.

[osaMABUSh]

20. It is likely many '00 Bush voters simply stay home

I can't see Kerry not getting the Gore vote. SO if some '00 Bush supporters simply stay home we win.

[Stephanie]

22. I have not met ANYBODY who switched the other way.

We have enough anecdotal evidence of this to swing the election right here at DU. We've had many threads loaded with this kind of evidence. Here's one:

Please Post Your "My RW Pal Just Saw the Light" Stories Here

I think we're due for another. I think many, many people have come to their senses. You'd have to be an idiot not to.