Is Britain having an election soon?

[UrbScotty]

This I know: Terms for the British Parliament last up to five years.

This I know: The Prime Minister can call new elections before those five years are up.

This I know: The last election was in June of 2001, meaning the next election will be held by June 2006.

I've heard there will be an election soon in Britain, as in within the next few months.

Is this true?

[Teddy_Salad]

1. 2005

.

[UrbScotty]

2. Did Blair call one for 2005?

Do you know when it will be held in 2005?

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. No date known yet

The 'expert consensus' is May 2005 (there are regular local government elections held each May, and recently most governments have chosen to schedule the general election on the same date, for convenience). He only has to give about a month's official notice.

[Doomsayer13]

3. Even if one is called, Labour will likely win

the Tories in Britian aren't a viable party at the moment, and the Liberal Democrats have never been (they aren't liberal either, they're centrists really).

[RedEagle]

5. Voting Problems There, Too

England thinks Internet voting is the way to go.

Enough of that and they'll elect Blair again.

[IronLionZion]

6. Blair has a spot in the Carlyle Group waiting for him

He's set for life. He doesn't care if he's re-elected.

[Monkey see Monkey Do]

7. We have a local & European election in June

plus the London mayoral election -- can't remember the date, but it's a Thursday (the clever pundits are calling it "Super Thursday"). This may be what you've heard.

There was a silly story about a month ago claiming that Blair was preparing to call an election after the Autumn conference season -- I seriously doubt this. Next May/June seems to be the consensus.

[Vladimir]

8. To pick up on the point

about the Autumn season, it may not be as stupid as it sounds, and here is why. The European and local elections are going to be a disaster for Blair, the only question is the magnitude of the disaster. With an all-time low turnout likely, the Tories will almost certainly win these, and the Lib Dems may even come second. I am saying may because that would be an unheard-of defeat of a sitting government in terms of local&Euro elections. If this happens, Blair may well face a revolt amongst his MPs. Now labour remembers 1979, and remembers Thatcher's victory on the back of a no-confidence vote in the government. A few months earlier, in the Autumn of 1978, there had been those amongst the Labour ranks who wanted to go to the polls early. The cabinet decided to wait in the hope that things would improve, they didn't, and the vote was lost. Labour may well have lost had it called an election that Autumn too, but at least it would have been calling an election on its own terms. So Blair will remember this, and may be disinclined to wait for things to get worse. If he gets trounced this summer, then by calling an election for Autumn he is effectively calling for a vote of confidence in the government from the public. This would catch the Tories off guard, and furthermore would probably serve as a shock wake up call to the electorate and possibly boost turnout which historically helps Labour. A lot will of course depend on this Summer's results but its not an impossibility.

V

[T_i_B]

9. I doubt the local elections will be that bad for Labour

The European elections will probbably be bad for Labour, but they were bad last time and Blair still won the general election by a landslide. I think people vote on different issues in the Euro elections to the general election.

As to the local elections, that is much much harder to predict, and the situation with council tax in areas where Labour is strong may well be very different to the situation in areas where this campaign is making ground.

http://www.isitfair.co.uk/

The IsItFair campaign is NATIONWIDE, NON-PARTY POLITICAL and FOR EVERYONE (not only pensioners) who wants the existing system of Council Tax abolished.

If you have been outraged by the relentless, year on year, inflation-busting increases in Council Tax, then this is YOUR CAMPAIGN. Please support it in whatever way you can.

The average rise for 2003/2004 was 12.9 per cent and was a direct result of central Government action. It is set to continue. Government is using the council tax system as a stealth tax. Grants have been redistributed away from many areas. At the same time, Government has dictated that spending in these same areas is significantly increased. On average, the cost of council tax has increased by up to 70% since 1997. The forecasts for next year's rises are already being reported at 10%. Central Government blames the local county councils for all the extortionate rises. Do not believe this. Check with your own county council and you will discover the truth.

Our aims are to make people aware of the need for action and to have the existing property-value-based council tax replaced by a system that takes account of the ability to pay. People power will achieve this.

[Vladimir]

10. Thanks for

the link. Council tax is becoming a hellish issue, not least because the alternative of raising income tax (my preferred solution to most of life's problems :) ) is not going to be a great vote winner.

I take your point about Europe, but two things: no sitting government has come worse than second AFAIK, and the media matters too. If Blair loses too heavily the Sun may dump him and then all bets are off.

V

[T_i_B]

11. Well the Liberal Democrat's council tax policy...

...might be just up your street. :-)

http://www.axethetax.org/

As to the Euro elections, I don't think "new" labour will come third. If those elections are anything like last time Labour and the Lib Dems will try to avoid talking about Europe, the tories will talk about it at every given opportunity and the Euro-sceptics will come out and vote for the tories, but this issue is not going to cause that big a loss for Blair as to put him in third place to the Lib Dems, whose European policy is even more unpopular with the British electorate from what I can see.

[Vladimir]

12. Yes indeedy

the Tories winning is pretty much a given. But a lot of traditional Labour supporters will see this as a perfect time to protest-vote Lib Dem over non-European issues, then there is the RESPECT coalition further siphoning off the Labour vote, plus the low turnot and the fact that Labour will struggle to get anyone to canvas for them this time around. I'm not saying they will come third for sure, but its a distinct possibility. Hell if RESPECT campaigns well (they are anti-Euro after all), it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that Labour may come 4th.

I know about the Lib Dem policy on council tax - its indeed progressive. Labour can't adopt it in this parliament but may well do so in the next one if they scrape through the next GE and Blair is replaced...

V