Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

"Economic recovery could largely be a statistical illusion...."

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (Through 2005) Donate to DU
 
DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 05:55 AM
Original message
"Economic recovery could largely be a statistical illusion...."
Heard this report on British tv, quoting a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, but could find nothing in print until today -- right here at DU. Papau posted it in the Economic Forum. Some excerpts:


U.S. Economy Recovering at Only Half Official Rate, Research Shows

By Allister Heath, Sunday Business, London Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News

Mar. 21 - America's buoyant economic recovery could largely be a statistical illusion, according to research released this weekend.

Last year's growth may be half the official figure, which would explain the lack of job creation which is damaging President Bush's re-election chances.

A growing number of discrepancies are emerging in America's economic numbers, including a dramatic over-estimation of manufacturing output. The latest analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests that the US economy may have grown by only about 2.2 percent in the year to the fourth quarter of 2003, considerably less than the official 4.3 percent.

Jan Hatzius, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, has added his voice to a growing band who believe that the growth figures are overstating the true recovery of the US economy. Errors in calculating manufacturing output and income growth explain why unemployment, on all measures, has consistently disappointed the markets in recent months, the research claims.

Hatzius said: "Over the last year, the official data show real gross domestic product (GDP) growing a sturdy 4.3 percent. Yet, non-farm payrolls are up only 0.1 percent. It is hard to overemphasise how unusual this combination is."...

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/...

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
lindashaw Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 06:39 AM
Response to Original message
1. And here you have the explanation of why the polls show
Bush rising in the polls. There is evidently a science which uses a false basis for skewing outcomes. Truth: When things aren't adding up, they probably aren't. Common sense rules!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TacticalPeek Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 07:00 AM
Response to Original message
2. Enron economics. I'm . . . . . surprised?
:evilgrin:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
The Backlash Cometh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. "Statistical illusion"
I love the british. They have a way with words that just cuts to the chase, while we rely on, er, idioms and other shortcuts such as Sam Shepard's style of Fox-talk that removes verbs from his language because it gets in the way of the clock.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MarianJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 07:10 AM
Response to Original message
4. A Lie,...
...from the halliburton administration?

I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you , SHOCKED!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
baldguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 07:18 AM
Response to Original message
5. 3.2 million unemployed.
That's not an illusion.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 07:32 AM
Response to Original message
6. Who would.................
do such a thing? Just who would manipulate data and just plain lie about the economy? Anyone...........anyone............anyone?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kalian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-30-04 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
7. LOL!
No kidding.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue Sep 19th 2017, 11:15 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (Through 2005) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC