Why is Dean leading in New Hampshire and Iowa ?

[kentuck]

Is it because of the "radicals" here on DU that support him? Or is it that he might have more support amongst the people than a lot of folks are willing to admit? Obviously, somebody besides a few liberal souls on DU support him or he would not be leading in those two states? Why are they supporting him? Is it his message? Is it because most primary voters are more liberal than voters in general? Will we be disappointed when Dean goes back toward the "center" if he wins the primary nomination?

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

1. 3 reasons

Slick politics, an aggressive online campaign that is not hesitant to attack Democrats, and lately, a whole lot of favorable corporate media coverage.

It's a very effective campaign.

[ryharrin]

5. I think you're wrong about one of those things.

His media coverage, while plentiful, is not overwhelmingly, or even mostly, positive. There have been countless articles calling him angry, mean, too liberal, and saying that he's just another McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis.

[devarsi]

14. No Such Thing As Bad Press

for Dean, though Al Gore may have argued against that.

Serioulsy, a few months ago, Dean's big problem was name recognition. That doesn't seem to be much of an issue anymore...

[kentuck]

7. Since when did it become a "positive" to attack other Democrats ?

One would think that would be a negative? Perhaps there is a deeper problem here?

[bearfartinthewoods]

12. plus he's unemployed so he can campaign full time n/t

[On the Road]

2. Two Things

a lot of Democrats wanted to hear but weren't hearing from the other candidate:

- Clear outspoken opposition to the war
- Clear outspoken opposition to Bush

Actually, Kucinich and Sharpton were saying these things. However, Dean was able to convince his audience that he is a major candidate and can beat Bush.

I don't see anything particularly liberal about Dean's campaign. Many of his positions (on say, health care, trade, and gay marriage) are slightly more conservative that most other candidates.

[0007]

3. Go Dean go!

*

[0007]

4. Go Dean go!

*

[Atlant]

6. Dean is saying what a lot of rank-and-file Democrats have been thinking.

Dean is willing to put into words (and stem-winding speeches!) what
a lot of the Democratic rank-and-file has been thinking, but not
hearing from any "name-brand" Democrats:

1. Bush is just about the worst thing to happen to America
   since at least the Great Depression. He's trashed our economy,
   our rights, our foreign policy, and our world-wide reputation
   as "the good guys".
   
   
2. Bush is a liar.
   
   
3. Bush didn't deserve "selection" and certainly doesn't deserve
   [re]election.
   

Dean says it forcefully, and brings gladness to the hearts of
all Democrats who hear him. "Finally! Somebody GETS it!"

Atlant

[Walt Starr]

8. This is why Dean resonates so much with me

He is saying the things I want a Democratic candidate to say.

I know he's nowhere near as liberal as I would like, let alone as liberal as I would prefer, but like I thought with Clinton, I think he can lick Bush.

:evilgrin:

[cjbuchanan]

9. I wish I knew

The man is very exciting. He has really brought people into his campaign. The odd thing is a lot of people are willing to forgive him for his stance on certain issues (like guns). I do not think this would have been the case if he ran in 2000. However, three years into Bush & Co., people seem willing to look past these things if it means a Democrat in the White House. Dean has a real ability to ignite people because he comes across as honest.

With that in mind, I do not think Dean will have to "shift back to the center" if he gets the nomination, he will just spend more time talking about the issues on which he is a centralist.

The interesting thing will be if Dean can keep this going for another five months. The other candidates still have not fired any big shots at him, but they will. His response will decide if he has what it takes to get the nomination.

Right now he seems to be doing everything right, let's see if he can keep it up.

[Larkspur]

16. Right now Dean is filling a vaccum in leadership

and exciting his loyal followers to get his name out.

Ever since I got my first Meetup pack in June, I've worn my Howard Dean button religiously everyday, except at work, where I can't, and I make sure that I have it on when I go shopping. It doesn't always garner a question --"Who's Howard Dean?" -- but people do see it which will give Dean name recognition when he the primary battles heat up after Labor Day.

Dean has a real ability to ignite people because he comes across as honest.
You're right and this is part of his charm when he meets regular people. When I met him in Portsmouth, NH, he was glad to meet me, even though he didn't have a clue who I was and I doubt he remember me again, but that doesn't matter because he greeted me warmly and sincerely. The press focuses on his anger, but anger is OK as long as it is directed against injustice, which is what Dean points out when he attacks Bush's policies. Dean follows that up with offering an alternative. He may not have his alternative completely figured out, but he has enough highlights that provide a framework of how he will tackle the issues. You definitely get his basic governing philosophy from all his policy speeches, even if he doesn't have the details down completely. Dean also has consistantly demonstrated courage in the face of jingoism and smear campaigns and that Americans RESPECT.

[GumboYaYa]

10. There is at least one more factor in Dean's surge.

Dean supporters are motivated to make a difference in the election. The campaign is energized like none of the other contenders' right now.

In St. Louis we are at every major event that occurs passing out flyers and promoting Dean. Saturday three of use passed out over 1,000 Dean flyers to people at the Strassenfest. No other candidate had supporters there.

Call us "radicals," "activists" or whatever, but we are out there spreading the message and people are paying attention. If any of our other "mainstream" candidates could generate this kind of excitement and energy to help campaign they would be running away with the nomination by now.

I think the bigger issue may not be why Dean can generate this kind of support but rather why none of the other candidates can do the same.

[indigo32]

11. agreed

here in MPLS, we have the third biggest Pride celebration in the nation.. seriously attendees were at least 100,000, we had 50 or so Dean Supporters march to loud cheering... and no other candidates were there. I'm out at our farmers market every weekend, the list goes on. Now you can say its the angry base that he's tapping into... but whatever it is we're getting his name out there. This is something that has to be done. And frankly we've got a good candidate to sell. He's reasonable, he's got proven leadership ability, he's a definite alternative to the current administration (and seriously I'm not crying Repub light here about the Senators running, I just think it's too easy for * campaign to frame the issues in such a way that it looks like they're right).

[blm]

13. The media has made sure of it....

giving him infinitely more publicity and airtime than the others for over 4 months now. Who controls the media? Who controls Howard Fineman? Who controls Deborah Orin?

[GumboYaYa]

17. Do you love campaigning as much as I do?

I have so much fun being on the streets talking to people about the issues and the candidates. My wife laughs at me because I can't shut up after I have been out canvassing or working a booth.

DU is great and I love the exchange of ideas, but being on the streets changing minds is where it is at. I have wallowed in pity for so long it is energizing to be doing something affirmative.

<ON EDIT> that question was intended for you Indigo32.

[indigo32]

23. Yes

It is wonderful to be out there :)

[dsc]

18. Just whom should the media be covering?

Dean has raised the most money in the second quarter and is very likely to do so again in the third quarter. He has gone from less than 5% nationally to tied for first. He went from 4th place to tied for first in Iowa (and a lead among those who will show up for sure). He went from 3rd to tied for first in New Hampshire. He went from God knows where to tied for first in California. Just whom pray tell should he media be covering?

[blm]

24. Thanks to the constant press.

And the constant reference to him as a liberal, he got plenty of liberal $$$$. As to your question, I think the media should cover all the candidates on all the issues.

Instead Dean talking trash against the other Dems and the party BECAME an issue they loved to hear, so it really captured the attention of the press. Smart....to a degree.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Why

is Joe Lieberman leading in Guam, the Virgin Islands and America Samoa?

[onecitizen]

19. Kentuck........

I can only tell you why I like him. It's very simple. He does not think bush is good for the country and says so and doesn't care what others(DLC)think or say about him. He gets in bush's face and I love that. No one in our party challenged the creep for 2 years and alot of damage was done. I don't think he is a flaming liberal at all. But I wouldn't care if he was or was not. If he is a centrist, which I think he is, it's OK with me too.

[killbotfactory]

20. Among other things, he appeals to independent-minded people..

Who like his common sense approach to the issues, and he holds enough views consistent with the democratic base to please them, and he comes across as honest and unafraid of Bush or poll numbers.

When Bush was pushing for irresponsible tax cuts, and I was thinking "What the hell is going on? We can't afford tax cuts! This is insane!", most other Democrats were saying "Okay, we'll have lots of tax cuts, but not as much as you want!" Dean was saying "What the hell is going on? We can't afford tax cuts! This is insane!".

When Bush was beligerently posturing to attack Iraq, and I was thinking "What the hell is going on? There is no reason to attack Iraq! This is insane!", most other dems were saying "Okay, we'll attack Iraq, but it would be nice if you proved there was a reason and worked internationally... If it's not too much trouble." Dean was saying "What the hell is going on? There is no reason to attack Iraq! This is insane!"

When I was thinking "The healthcare situation is at travesty, we must do something!", most other dems were silent. Dean was saying "The healthcare situation is a travesty, we must do something!"

I think that might have something to do with it.

[tjdee]

21. He's been visiting Iowa since he was governor, LOL, uh....

He has been working VERY hard with Iowa since his governor days (one of the reasons the papers sued to get his schedule was to find out how much time he'd spent in Iowa).

And he lives in the state right next to New Hampshire.

He'd have to suck to get poor numbers in either state.
I will be more impressed with a Dean victory in CA (which looks good for him) or any other state besides those two. Dean has made a very concerted effort with those two states, and it's paying off--Good for him!

[poskonig]

22. Hard work and initiative.

Dean started out with seven people and $150K. Dean didn't have the unions, the party establishment, the monied elites, et cetera, behind him.

Dean has good "rhythm" -- he listens to the party and the general mood of the country and has a intuitive sense where it is. In addition, his campaign was built to empower people from the bottom up which gave it huge growth potential. Many candidates are still trying to micro-manage everything from fundraising to minute image details like riding a motorcycle. In addition, the campaign has been active, not reactive.

Secondly, while Dean is a moderate, he gave people a clear message on key issues. Kerry, tenative about his record, fuzzed things up way to much. Kerry's record is outstanding. Unfortunately, Kerry is worried about getting Dukakised. The idea was to be the tough Vietnam guy with all of the experience and judgment, but the Dean people blow that away everytime pointing out how Kerry was admittedly duped by Junior Bush of all people. Dean has also been able to channel dislike towards Bush to productive, constructive ends.