I have 2 predictions, one on Nader and one on the South

[Dob Bole]

My predictions are usually correct, and I have decent political sense (sometimes.) Here they are:

Many people are frightened by the new, and seemingly larger-than-ever Nader factor. My prediction: in November, there will be no Nader factor. As you can see here http://pollingreport.com the latest polls have Bush and Kerry 1 point apart, and Nader with six percent. The second graph on the page shows Kerry 48%, Bush 44%. While it's still far away, the result will be closer to the second poll. The reason? Nader wasn't on the ballot in many states in 2000, and without a party structure behind him it will now be even harder to do.

Prediction #2. I have won elections in the South. I have helped other people win elections in the South. My analysis is that the Democratic Nominee will carry a minimum of 30 electoral votes from the Southeast, despite the strong machine that Bush currently has in place. In addition, the Vice Presidential nominee will be a Southern Baptist.

Piece of advice: John Kerry, while dominating in domestic areas and closing in on Bush on the Iraq issue, needs to close the huge War on Terrorism gap. What was your role on September 11? What are your plans for National Security?

FIN. Flame away.

[codegreen]

1. this election means the world to Repugs. they'll get Nader on every ballot

even if they have to pay and sign the petitions themselves.

[Florida_Geek]

2. Think Touchscreens Dems -> Nader votes

I am sure in Florida Jeb will get Nader on the ballot and he will pull 6%-8% of the votes.

[kalian]

3. I think that this time around....Nader is robbing repukes of votes...

its the other way around this time...

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

4. They are alluding to using Nader

as a smokescreen for fraudulently stealing Dem votes to the Nader column, less suspicious than Dem to Repub.

[papau]

5. Southern Baptist Gep would be a good choice! - Hi D

I Like the screen name!

[Sufi Marmot]

6. Which southern states and who for VP?

Prediction #2. I have won elections in the South. I have helped other people win elections in the South. My analysis is that the Democratic Nominee will carry a minimum of 30 electoral votes from the Southeast, despite the strong machine that Bush currently has in place. In addition, the Vice Presidential nominee will be a Southern Baptist.

I''m curious which southern states you think will go Democratic and why. And which of the names currently bandied about as being potential VP material are Southern Baptists?

Nader wasn't on the ballot in many states in 2000, and without a party structure behind him it will now be even harder to do. Nader was on the ballot in every state except GA, NC, WY, SD, OK, ID, and IN. But I agree that as an independent he'll have a much harder time getting on the ballot in many states. See also this thread.

-SM

[blm]

7. Gee, good thing Kerry wrote a book in 1997 about terrorism and its funding

by international governments - The New War.

Come on, Dob, surely you know that by now?