[PINR]: The Erosion of Political Institutions in Turkmenistan

[nosmokes]

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
[email protected]
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30 December 2004

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The Erosion of Political Institutions in Turkmenistan
Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein

http://www.pinr.com

On December 19, parliamentary elections were held in Turkmenistan, a Central Asian republic bordered by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to the north, Afghanistan and Iran to the south, and the Caspian Sea to the west.
The elections did not awaken significant international interest, because President Saparmurat Niyazov's Democratic Party was the only party to participate in them. Along with North Korea, Turkmenistan has the only remaining Stalinist regime in the world, complete with a cult of personality. Niyazov has named himself "Turkmenbashi," "Father of all Turkmens."
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Turkmenistan's Geostrategic Significance

Turkmenistan, which has a population of 5 million and is 90 percent uninhabited desert, would have no global importance, except for the human rights community, were it not for its energy reserves (the fifth largest natural gas deposits in the world) and its strategic importance in the struggle with Islamic revolution.
A part of the former Soviet Union, Turkmenistan became independent in 1991, but remained dependent on Russia as the channel for its gas exports. A member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the country is a component of Moscow's design of recapturing control over its "near abroad." More importantly, Russia relies on Turkmenistan to help it fulfill energy supply contracts.
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The Long Term Erosion of Turkmenistan's Political System

Although political strategies and policies are generally determined everywhere by group interest and power, in personalized dictatorships the leaders' idiosyncrasies can have a decisive impact. In the case of Turkmenistan, Niyazov's personality, which is marked by megalomania and self-delusion, has severely inhibited the development of stable political institutions.
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Conclusion

Turkmenistan fell under a personalized dictatorship because its political institutions had been imposed during the Soviet period and had never been integrated with the underlying social structure, creating a power vacuum that a power-driven and emotionally needy individual could fill after independence. All the familiar socially destructive conditions of fascism have followed, leaving the country with an uncertain future.
Interested powers that are unwilling to act at present will have to cope with the fall-out when the Turkmenbashi no longer presides in Ashgabat. The parliamentary elections for which the people stayed home are a symptom and symbol of the crisis to come in Turkmenistan.

complete report available at http://www.pinr.com

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Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
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The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [email protected]. All comments should be directed to [email protected].

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