Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com[email protected]------------------------------
September 29, 2004:
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"Washington's Iran Strategy: Ostracizing Tehran from the International Community"
Drafted by Erich Marquardt on September 29, 2004
http://www.pinr.comWhile impossible to confirm, there is a high probability that the leadership in Tehran is attempting to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. By achieving a nuclear weapons capability, Iran would be better insulated from foreign threats and would help to stabilize its regional power. While a nuclear-armed Iran would assist in securing Iranian interests, it would be a dangerous development for the interests of the United States and Israel.
~snip~
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- Weak U.S. Response
In light of Iran's potential pursuit of nuclear weapons, both the U.S. and Israel will need to take steps to secure their regional interests at the expense of Iran's. Due to Iran's military strength, Israel would prefer to rely on the U.S. to weaken the Islamic republic, for if Washington were to move on Iran, with Israel remaining on the sidelines, it would likely limit Iranian retaliation against Israel. But Washington has less leverage to act since it is bogged down in Iraq and overextended elsewhere due to its involvement in multiple theaters of conflict. Plus, in the midst of an election year, it is not clear how the U.S. public would respond to serious U.S. saber rattling on the issue.
~snip~
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- Destabilizing Forces
A nuclear-armed Iran could pose a great danger to the region's stability. Presently, the only truly powerful state in the Middle East is Israel, and its power has kept the other regional states weak and disunited. A nuclear-armed Iran would create a new power source that would reduce Israel's supremacy. A reduction in Israeli power could mean an increase in power for other Middle Eastern states since Israel would not be able to strike surrounding states, such as Syria, with impunity. Any such strike would have to consider the potential for Iranian retaliation, or at least heightened Iranian assistance to states or organizations focused on reducing Israel's regional power.
~snip~
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- Avoiding International Condemnation
Despite its potential pursuit of nuclear arms, Iran does not wish to be ostracized by the international community. If Tehran were threatened with international economic sanctions, and loss of its European connections, it will prove to be counter-productive to the interests of the Iranian state. Thus, while the pursuit of nuclear weapons is a rational objective for Tehran, it is not rational if it comes at the expense of all other objectives. Tehran has recognized this predicament and has balked when faced with threats of isolation from Europe.
~snip~
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- Conclusion
The preceding strategic analysis provides a course for the Bush administration to set if it wishes to secure its interests in the Middle East. After taking a serious hit to its military capability due to the unexpected level of violence found in the Iraq occupation, Washington cannot adequately threaten Iran with force. It must use the skillful art of diplomacy to coax the Europeans to adopt Washington's position. While there are signs that the Europeans are complying, it is far from certain that they will agree with the U.S. on referring Iran's nuclear issue to the U.N. Security Council.
~snip~
complete article at
http://www.pinr.com- The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of
[email protected]. All comments should be directed to
[email protected].
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