Bush, Marshal Foch and Iran

[bemildred]

If this guy is right, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Washington's strategic position in the Middle East is stronger than it has ever been, contrary to superficial interpretation. With much of central Iraq out of US control and a record level of close to 100 attacks a day against US forces, President George W Bush appears on the defensive. The moment recalls French Marshal Ferdinand Foch's 1914 dispatch from the Marne: "My center is giving way, my right is in retreat; situation excellent. I shall attack." To be specific, the United States will in some form or other attack Iran while it arranges the division of Iraq.

That Sunni diehards and Shi'ite adventurers would prevent the pacification of Iraq never was in question (Will Iraq survive the Iraqi resistance? , December 23, 2003). Leaks of a National Intelligence Estimate warning last week of impending Iraqi civil war suggest that Washington is thinking past the loser's game of occupation. The phony war between reluctant Iraqi recruits and rebels will persist past November, but something deadly and different will follow on Bush's re-election. Russian paratroops will be busy in the Caucasus after the Beslan atrocity, making a Russian presence in Iraq unlikely, contrary to my earlier forecast. (That may have been the intended outcome of the incident.) Nonetheless, Washington has a winning card to play, and the decibel level of protests from Tehran as well as from the US opposition suggests that it is well anticipated.

If Washington chooses to dismember Iraq rather than pacify it, who will win and who will lose? Washington always has had the option of breaking up the Mesopotamian monstrosity drawn by British cartographers in 1921. The only surprise is that it has taken US intelligence so long to reach this conclusion. Whether America's policymakers are slow learners, or whether Bush chose to perpetuate the farce of Iraqi nation-building until the November elections, we may never know. An Iranian alliance with Iraq's Shi'ites poses a danger to this maneuver. But that danger, in turn, drives the US toward action against Iran.

Asia Times

[Inland]

1. Dismemberment not an option

since the control of the oil fields will be a non-negotiable issue.

[Eloriel]

2. This is stunning

Are you sure you don't want to post it in GD?

[bemildred]

3. I'm not that impressed with it.

It's easy enough to paste ideas together in new and
interesting ways, but being consistent with facts and
reason is a more stringent standard. I put it up because
there would seem to be some loons in the current administration
that might actually attempt something like this; and it is
a fun read.

Here is a bit more on Foch and his activities:

http://www.firstworldwar.com/features/foch.htm

Indeed, the French Army's opening gambit, Plan XVII, called for a
headlong two-pronged offensive into Alsace-Lorraine itself. An
aggressive doctrine making the offensive the sole focus of French military
endeavour, offensive á l'outrance, dominated this plan. French élan
would carry the day and sweep the Germans from the field at the point
of the bayonet.

It was not to be. Five French armies shattered themselves in furious
assaults against their German foes, who in turn counter-attacked with
equal determination. A reflective Charles de Gaulle wrote of the
experience:

"Suddenly the enemy's fire became precise and
concentrated. Second by second the hail of bullets and the
thunder of the shells grew stronger. Those who survived
lay flat on the ground, amid the screaming wounded and
the humble corpses. With affected calm, the officers let
themselves be killed standing upright, some obstinate
platoons stuck their bayonets in their rifles, bugles
sounded the charge, isolated heroes made fantastic leaps,
but all to no purpose. In an instant it had become clear
that not all the courage in the world could withstand this
fire."2

By the end of August, and with less than
two weeks of actual fighting, the French
Army had suffered just over 210,000
casualties.3 This included 4,778 officers,
equating to ten percent of the total
French officer strength.4


Being unthinkingly aggressive is always a bad strategy, it makes
you predictable.

You may post it in GD if you like.