Moqtada al-Sadr: Islamic Revolutionary or Political Catalyst?

[nosmokes]

Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

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August 26, 2004:

Today's analysis is authored by Jonathan Feiser, a U.S. Air Force Intelligence Analyst.

In the near future, the Power and Interest News Report will provide background information on its team of analysts.

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"Moqtada al-Sadr: Islamic Revolutionary or Political Catalyst?"
Drafted by Jonathan Feiser on August 26, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

Regardless of the recent political overtures offered by Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mehdi Army, the leader appears willing to continue his course of violent struggle against U.S.-led coalition forces. It is through this struggle that al-Sadr claims to see the protection and freedom of the Iraqi people. Clearly, the removal of al-Sadr from the Imam Ali Mosque by any hostile powers of authority -- whether it be the Iraqi Interim Government (I.I.G.) or, especially, the United States -- is out of the question.

Nevertheless, there should be a legitimate concern over the consequences al-Sadr may have -- and indeed thus far has inflicted -- upon the Shi'a of Iraq. At present, many Shi'a, while disappointed with al-Sadr for his garrisoning of the Imam Ali Mosque, do support his position and feel that the cleric has yet to be given the legitimate opportunity to join the political government of Iraq. That being said, there is a question concerning the forces that are currently working within the Shi'a political arena. Thus far, other Shi'a political groups have bided their time with the intention of possibly allowing al-Sadr to undermine his own position of legitimacy and trust within the minds of Iraqi Shi'a.

Three primary Shi'a groups make up the ideological political landscape of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. The first group is the Hizb al-Da'wa. Historically, this party held and continues to hold the highest confidence and legitimacy amongst Iraqi Shi'a. Al-Da'wa was founded in 1958 by Moqtada al-Sadr's father, the late Ayatollah Baqr al-Sadr -- executed in 1980 by Saddam Hussein -- with an original mandate of countering secularization in government. Today, the party now makes up a collage of factions with differing agendas and questionable allegiances -- many that, in one form or another, transcend the borders of Iraq.

Regardless of the outcome at the Imam Ali Mosque, ruling factions of al-Da'wa will retain their political influence in the development of the Iraqi state. However, the group will continue to be plagued by its internal divisions and its sources of loyalty.

The last two groups are Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution of Iraq (S.C.I.R.I.). Since the fall of Saddam's Ba'athist regime, both have maintained an uneasy relationship of which in the past year has reverted into a series of serious accusations and violent exchanges. Last year, the S.C.I.R.I. blamed al-Sadr for the murder of the formerly exiled Ayatollah Baqr al-Hakim, an allegation that followed with numerous assassination attempts on al-Sadr's life that following December. Nevertheless, at least temporarily, the old Middle Eastern maxim that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" found relevance in the relationship between these two Shi'a groups in their efforts to counterbalance the influence of U.S.-led coalition forces.
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[JSJ]

1. the words attributed to him in the media make him...

...seem rational and democratic. He is doing a good job confabulating the invaders, though. I think he's a good and brave person. Look at the odds he faces.