WSJ: Population Shifts In West Shape Kerry's Strategy

[question everything]

By JACOB M. SCHLESINGER and MIRIAM JORDAN
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
July 21, 2004; Page A1

In the 2000 campaign, Al Gore spent little time or money in and around the Rocky Mountain states. On election day, the Democratic presidential candidate was nearly shut out in the region, carrying just New Mexico, by a mere 366 votes out of 600,000 cast. In 2004, John Kerry has a new view of the electoral map.

This year's Democratic nominee has already made eight trips in total to Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. On Friday, he'll return to the Denver area, opening a six-day trip across the country to accept his party's nomination in Boston. Mr. Kerry has spent $7 million on television in those four states, more than 10% of his advertising nationwide. Polls show Mr. Kerry with a lead in New Mexico and the potential to capture the other three... The challenge: The old Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and industrial Midwest continue to shrink. The states carried by Mr. Gore have lost seven of the 267 electoral votes they had in 2000. Four of those votes have landed in the Western states Mr. Kerry is targeting.

The opportunity: Demographic and economic trends are making the region more receptive to the Democratic Party's message. Many new arrivals are lower-income workers drawn to the booming resorts, social liberals migrating from California and, most importantly, Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic by a two-to-one ratio. In Nevada, Latinos are expected to cast 10% of all votes this year, up from 3.9% eight years ago, according to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey. In New Mexico, Hispanics this year will cast one of every three ballots.

(snip)

Republicans say two longtime pillars of Western politics haven't changed and will keep the region in their column. One is the high percentage of military families, both active-duty and veteran -- a bloc that usually votes Republican. The other is the strong conservative streak in the region, a feature that may even be heightened by the influx of largely Catholic Hispanics. Earlier this month the Bush campaign released Spanish-language radio ads calling Mr. Kerry's voting record "extreme" because he declined to support legislation to notify parents when their teen has an abortion or receives a "morning after" pill at school. But Democrats hope to turn these factors to their advantage. Mr. Kerry, emphasizing his stint in Vietnam, is making a pitch to veterans. His Western aides say the heavy burden imposed by the Iraq war is bringing some active-duty troops to Democratic rallies. And Democrats say Western conservatism differs from Southern conservatism -- more libertarian, less religious. They believe Mr. Bush's strong embrace of religious conservatives will hurt his cause in the West. Luis Rovira, the retired chief justice of Colorado's Supreme Court, was a lifelong registered Republican. He says he found himself "more and more at odds with the social position of the Republican Party" on issues such as abortion, stem-cell research and the treatment of accused terrorists. A few months ago, he changed his registration to independent. Then he and his wife each sent $1,000 checks to the Kerry campaign.

Write to Jacob M. Schlesinger at [email protected] and Miriam Jordan at [email protected]

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109037227250769373,00.html

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. what a great article.....

and in the WSJ of all places. I particularly think this quote will chap their asses:

"Luis Rovira, the retired chief justice of Colorado's Supreme Court, was a lifelong registered Republican. He says he found himself "more and more at odds with the social position of the Republican Party" on issues such as abortion, stem-cell research and the treatment of accused terrorists. A few months ago, he changed his registration to independent. Then he and his wife each sent $1,000 checks to the Kerry campaign."

btw: i nominated this piece for the homepage.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

2. Read this article in the print edition of the WSJ

Kerry's showing great hindsight on not concentrating on traditional Democratic strongholds only.

[depakid]

3. The indications I see are that the military vote will split

in these states this year. That means the traditional Republican voting bloc won't be the factor that it has in the past- which makes the demographic shifts more significant. At the very least, Bush will have to invest a lot more time and resources there.