Kerry avoids GOP attempt for quick KO; polls are tight

[question everything]

By George E. Condon Jr.
COPLEY NEWS SERVICE

July 11, 2004

WASHINGTON – Four months after clinching the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. John Kerry finds himself still standing, still raising money and still posing a threat to President Bush. It might not seem like much to Democrats who hoped a run of bad news for the White House would have propelled Kerry to a big lead in the polls by now. But by historical standards of trying to defeat an incumbent president, that isn't too bad for the Massachusetts senator.

(snip)

Polls vary, but an average of the most recent surveys gives Kerry about a three-point edge over Bush, at 48 percent to 45 percent. Also, polls in the key battleground states that may determine the winner all show Kerry either ahead or within striking distance. This is not what Republican strategists expected March 3, when Edwards' withdrawal from the contest effectively ended the battle for the Democratic nomination and left Kerry as the certain choice. Back then, they looked at their overwhelming edge in cash on hand – an estimated $110 million for Bush to $2 million for Kerry – and their significant head start in organizing the states. They dreamed of an early knockout.

(snip)

Conventional wisdom had been that this would be a replay of the spring of 1996, when President Clinton outspent Republican challenger Sen. Bob Dole, a blow from which Dole never recovered... It didn't work in large part because Kerry suddenly demonstrated an unexpected fund-raising ability.

(snip)

Republicans acknowledge that this was something they did not anticipate. But they contend that their ads have been effective at highlighting Kerry's negatives and keeping the race close.


More..


Find this article at:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040711/news_1n11campaign.html

[Spangle]

1. Group not getting polled

A whole group of new voters most likely will not be polled. In the past, this group wasn't a strong group. I'm talking about young folks. They live with their parents, in groups, in dorms, etc.

With MTV and VH1 hitting the idea of voting HARD, more of this group then ever will vote this time around. Many who would not have voted, will be there Nov 2.

This group thinks that getting a BJ isn't a reason for being impeached. And that is ALL they consider the "Clinton hatred" is about. However, they do see many problems with the Bush administration and question WHY it was a big deal for Clinton to lie over a BJ and not a big deal over the lies Bush has told.

They have buddys in the military and know that they can be drafted. They understand NOW that this sort of stuff depends on who is in office.

[jdsmith]

2. "Still standing"?

He's leading and has the incumbent fighting (dirtily) to stay in contention. What is the Copley News Service and why would it attempt to rig the news like this?