Concerns About BP Relief Well Success Rise Along With Evidence of Chemical Damage, Spread of Oil

[RedEarth]

.....Yves Smith at nakedcapitalism

The Financial Times highlights a concern we had raised early on about the effort by BP to drill a relief well to stop the flow of oil into the Gulf. While many analysts have acted as if the BP forecast, that the well would be completed by August, there is no reason to assume the initial effort will succeed, particularly at this depth, which is unprecedented for this effort. We pointed out the last effort to drill a relief for a large leak in the Gulf, at Ixtoc in 1979, took ten month to yield results. The commentary i the story suggests that a delay would not be as severe.

From the Financial Times:

Almost 6,060m below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico and 4,500m below the seabed, BP’s engineers are zeroing in on a narrow target: the 25cm-wide steel casing of its old Macondo well, which has been leaking oil since late April…

While those in the industry believe the relief wells will eventually stop the oil, they note the scale of the challenge. In addition to the depth, the original drilling process suffered several setbacks because of the difficult geology and pressures.

“Drilling a well thousands of feet into rock to hit a target no more than six inches <15cm> wide isn’t exactly a sure thing,” says Guy LeBas, strategist at Janney Capital Markets. “There remains a risk that the leak could continue past August.”

“It is extremely difficult,” says a geologist. Oil engineers warn that the extra attempts do not require a full, new relief well, however. If BP fails to intersect the well at its first attempt, the engineers will backtrack and use their directional drilling systems, which allow them to move their drill like a snake. Each attempt will take days or weeks, rather than the three months needed to drill a new well, they say

On other fronts, another concern raised early on, that the dispersant used by BP, Corexit, was dangerous and could cause additional harm, appears to be valid. Crops near the Gulf Coast are showing damage consistent with Corexit toxicity. From SFGate (hat tip reader Doc Holiday):

BP’s favorite dispersant Corexit 9500 is being sprayed at the oil gusher on the ocean floor. Corexit is also being air sprayed across hundreds of miles of oil slicks all across the gulf…

Corexit 9500 is a solvent originally developed by Exxon and now manufactured by the Nalco of Naperville, Illinois (who by the way just hired some expensive lobbyists). Corexit is is four times more toxic than oil (oil is toxic at 11 ppm (parts per million), Corexit 9500 at only 2.61ppm).

In a report written by Anita George-Ares and James R. Clark for Exxon Biomedical Sciences, Inc. titled “Acute Aquatic Toxicity of Three Corexit Products: An Overview” Corexit 9500 was found to be one of the most toxic dispersal agents ever developed…


more....

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/concern-about-bp-relief-well-success-rise-along-with-evidence-of-chemical-damage-spread-of-oil.html

[LandR]

1. Maybe Better Technology, Maybe Not

I don't think all hell will break loose if the flow continues past August, but you can expect BP's stock to certainly take a hit in such a case. Even though the relief wells for the Ixtoc I took 10 months, remember that this was back in 1979, so perhaps technology has improved since then.