Cordesman: Act Now or a Civil War May Hit Iraq

[Barrett808]

Act Now or a Civil War May Hit Iraq
By Anthony H. Cordesman

A year into the "war after the war," far too many U.S. officials are still in a state of denial.

They ignore the ABC poll conducted in February that found roughly two-thirds of Sunnis and one-third of Shiites to be opposed to the U.S. and British invasion and "humiliated" by it.

They ignore the fact that roughly one-third of Sunnis and two-thirds of Shiites support violence against the coalition and want coalition forces to leave Iraq immediately.

They talk about the insurgents as a "small minority" because only a small minority so far have been violent — a reality in virtually every insurgent campaign and one that in no way is a measure of support for violence.

They do not see just how much the perceived U.S. tilt toward Israel and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon alienates Iraqis and Arabs in general. They do not admit the near total failure of U.S. information operations, and the fact that Iraqis watch hostile Arab satellite TV stations and rely on newspapers filled with misinformation and conspiracy theories.

...

The U.S. can live with a weak or unstable Iraq, and the threat of withdrawal must be used as leverage to find an effective solution.

(more)

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-cordesman7may07,1,7566954.story?coll=la-news-comment

If you read Riverbend's anquished piece today, you have to wonder if even Cordesman gets it.