Analysis: Iran election statistics muddy waters further

[struggle4progress]

Two sets of figures supporting opposition candidates lead to more confusion over disputed poll results00
* Robert Tait and Julian Borger, diplomatic editor
* guardian.co.uk, Monday 15 June 2009 14.34 BST

Amid a swirl of rumour, two alternative sets of statistics purporting to represent the reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi as the "true" winner of Iran's disputed presidential election have been circulating in Tehran.

Their authenticity is impossible to gauge. One set, attributed to an "informed source" in the interior ministry and appearing on Iranian opposition websites, shows Mousavi winning 21.3m votes, or 57.2% of the total – enough to give him outright victory without a second-round run-off ...

Another – and arguably less plausible – set of statistics has been announced by a reformist former MP, Ebrahim Amini, now an adviser to Karroubi ...

Nate Silver, a respected US political analyst, concluded: "The statistical evidence is intriguing but, ultimately, inconclusive" ...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/15/iran-election-analysis-figures

[AlexanderProgressive]

1. Elections without UN observers should not be recognized

As legitimate.

[Warpy]

2. The voting wasn't the problem this time.

The counting was.

All counting should be as public as possible, completely transparent.

[struggle4progress]

3. That's not entirely clear:

Ex-pat Iranians cast ballots
Michael Cabanatuan, Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, June 13, 2009
... Voters were given a simple paper ballot, about the size of their passport, and had to write - in Farsi - the name of their candidate and a number assigned to him ... http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/12/MN9A186FFT.DTL

Memo From Tehran
Reverberations as Door Slams on Hope of Change
... the ballots seemed designed to lead opposition voters astray. Voters were obliged to choose a candidate and fill in a code. Though Mr. Moussavi was candidate No. 4, the code No. 44 signified Mr. Ahmadinejad ... http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/world/middleeast/14memo.html?_r=1&hpw

Voting for the president in Maida Vale
David Shariatmadari: I hadn't known I was eligible to vote in Iranian elections. But this morning I had my finger inked and made my choice
Friday, 12 June 2009
... In my faltering farsi hand, I write down the name and number of my candidate ... http://u.tv/News/Voting-for-the-president-in-Maida-Vale/b5a1aa98-1399-46ee-9ab9-c7f59d6f9985

Arab World Elections
How to Steal an Election in Iran
Mehdi Khalaji June 15th 2009
... According to official statistics, the illiteracy rate in Iran is more than 20 percent. Voters are required to write the name of their preferred candidate on the ballot; there are no pictorial symbols, and voters are not allowed to make an "X" to indicate their choice. Since many people are unable to write, the government allows volunteers, mostly affiliated with the Basij, to be inside polling stations to help voters write the name of their preferred candidate. Obviously, these Basij volunteers can easily write in any name they wish ... http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=11394