http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-0403080172mar08,1,2392614.story?coll=chi-news-hed<Registration & Pasword required so I printed whole article>
By Jeff Zeleny
Tribune national correspondent
March 8, 2004
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- As John Kerry writes his game plan for an eight-month duel with President Bush, loyal Democrats practically salivate at the thought of settling the score from the last presidential election, which ended here in disappointment and chaos.
Their anger cooled for a time during the three years of the Bush administration, but now it is back in full force. Even before last week, when the president's re-election commercials started filling airwaves across Florida, many Democratic activists longed for their nominating fight to conclude so Bush could become the party's sole target.
"There is a feeling that we regretfully altered the history of the world in a way that we don't like," said Lois Frankel, the mayor of this sprawling southern Florida city, who was one of the most visible characters in the presidential recount in 2000. "It was very personal to us here, but the policies of George Bush will be the driving force of the 2004 election."
Those policies are precisely why some Democrats wonder whether Ohio, Missouri and other states suffering from wounded economies and record-setting job losses could be more fruitful territory for Kerry. While no one questions the symbolism of revenge here, where Bush won the election by 537 votes and a favorable U.S. Supreme Court decision, there is no guarantee that Florida will become the most critical battleground of the fall race.
While Democrats have been preoccupied by their primary season, Republicans have built an organization designed to prevent a repeat of the 2000 election dispute and the 36-day spectacle that followed. Precinct by precinct, the Bush campaign has recruited thousands of leaders to identify voting patterns of their neighbors, make sure they are registered to vote and encourage them to become personally invested in the re-election effort.
"While we do have the incumbency of the president, we are certainly going to work the hardest to make sure the election is never again that close," said Florida Republican Party Chairman Carole Jean Jordan. "We certainly are tired of hearing all the fuss about it."
If the president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, and other Republicans accomplish their goals, this time the outcome will not hinge on a sliver of votes and a series of controversial court rulings.
"Florida will not be delivered in our laps as a gift. We're going to have to work for it," said Doug Walz, a central Florida home builder who is leading the president's re-election drive in Highlands County. "Presidential campaigns are never a cakewalk."
For months, Walz has been signing up volunteers to work on Bush's behalf, and last week he held a meeting to train new recruits. His territory sits in the most important region of the state, between Orlando and Tampa, which has experienced the largest influx of new residents and is home to the highest share of voters who are not traditionally aligned with either major political party.
With precision and sophistication, the Bush-Cheney campaign is trying to increase turnout by gleaning as much information as possible about prospective supporters so they can be targeted with a personalized approach through the course of the campaign. As canvassers go door to door, they compile lists that can detail a voter's church, preferred magazine and favorite sporting event.
"There is a huge push to do this early, so we can be organized," said Reed Dickens, a spokesman for the Bush-Cheney campaign. "Instead of saying we think the neighborhood is very important, now the mentality is we think these 12 houses are Republican."
A poll published Sunday in The Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times showed that Bush trails Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by 6 percentage points in Florida. The survey, conducted after Kerry sealed the nomination last week, also found that 51 percent of likely Florida voters believe the Bush administration is leading the country in the wrong direction.
Republican strategists say the poll numbers could reflect an artificial boost for Kerry, who has basked in positive publicity for more than two months. They said the head-to-head matchup is likely to balance out when voters absorb the president's re-election commercials, which were shown extensively here over the weekend on local channels and during sporting events on cable television.
In addition to an intense advertising campaign, the Bush-Cheney re-election team is recruiting about 7,000 paid and volunteer precinct organizers to register voters now and get them to the polls later. Temporary registration booths have been set up at NASCAR events, outside Wal-Mart stores and, on Saturday, even at a carwash in Vero Beach.
In November, Republicans hope their voter turnout reaches 80 percent in all 67 Florida counties.
The Democratic Party here, demoralized after the president's younger brother easily cruised to re-election in the 2002 governor's race, has not matched the Republican effort. But Kerry, who will campaign in three Florida cities on Monday, has dispatched a team to assess his prospects in the state.
"If the Kerry campaign and the Democratic National Committee put the necessary resources into the battle, we will definitely win the state of Florida," said Scott Maddox, chairman of the state Democratic Party. "It is not a state that the Democrats must win, but one the Republicans must win."
It wasn't until the final months of the 2000 campaign that Democrats believed Al Gore stood much of a chance in Florida. When polls began indicating that he did, Gore shifted resources from other states, hoping to win the state's 25 electoral votes.
So even though Kerry came to Florida last week immediately after winning Super Tuesday and told supporters in Orlando that the state "obviously is going to be a critical battleground," strategists say it is premature to print his campaign playbook. More than a dozen states are being studied carefully, and the most contested regions won't be decided for months.
"Florida should be in the top tier," said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who also believes that Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, West Virginia and Nevada could hold promise for Kerry. "You want to expand the map so Republicans can't carpet-bomb a couple states and win."
Matt Corrigan, a professor of political science at the University of Northern Florida, said he still believed Bush held an advantage in the state, which now has 27 electoral votes. He said he was not convinced that Kerry would devote significant time or money to Florida--just for symbolism's sake--if other states looked more helpful to winning in the Electoral College.
"They will do at least a head fake down here, to make sure the Republicans are doing what they need to be doing," Corrigan said. "Right now they are going to say they will be competitive in Florida. In August, will the answer be the same?"
For all of the planning by both sides, though, the politics of Florida remain difficult to forecast eight months before an election. Since 2000, nearly 1million people have moved to the state. By November, the population will have shifted again.
"We have thousands and thousands of potential voters moving in here every day," said Jim Kane, who directs the non-partisan Florida Voter Poll. "They may not participate in local races, but they all feel qualified to vote for president. It's very hard for the candidates to know who these new residents will show up for on Election Day."
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