NYT: Through Bush-Colored Glasses

[seafan]

Through Bush-Colored Glasses

March 16, 2008

.....

Mr. Bush went on to paint a false picture of the economy. He dismissed virtually every proposal Congress is working on to alleviate the mortgage crisis, sticking to his administration’s inadequate ideas. And despite the rush of serious problems — frozen credit markets, millions of impending mortgage defaults, solvency issues at banks, a plunging dollar — he said that a major source of uncertainty today is whether his tax cuts, scheduled to expire in 2010, would be extended.
This was too far afield of reality to be dismissed as simple cheerleading. It points to the pressing need for a coherent plan to steer through what some economists are now predicting could be a severe downturn. Mr. Bush’s denial of the economic truth underscores the need for Congress to push forward with solutions to the mortgage crisis — especially bankruptcy reform to help defaulting homeowners. Lawmakers also must prepare to execute, in case it is needed, a government rescue of people whose homes are now worth less than they borrowed to buy them.

Mr. Bush said he was optimistic because the economy’s “foundation is solid” as measured by employment, wages, productivity, exports and the federal deficit. He was wrong on every count. On some, he has been wrong for quite a while.
Mr. Bush boasted about 52 consecutive months of job growth during his presidency. What matters is the magnitude of growth, not ticks on a calendar. The economic expansion under Mr. Bush — which it is safe to assume is now over — produced job growth of 4.2 percent. That is the worst performance over a business cycle since the government started keeping track in 1945.

Mr. Bush also talked approvingly of the recent unemployment rate of 4.8 percent. A low rate is good news when it indicates a robust job market. The unemployment rate ticked down last month because hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the work force altogether. Worse, long-term unemployment, of six months or more, hit 17.5 percent. We’d expect that in the depths of a recession. It is unprecedented at the onset of one.
Mr. Bush was wrong to say wages are rising. On Friday morning, the day he spoke, the government reported that wages failed to outpace inflation in February, for the fifth straight month. Productivity growth has also weakened markedly in the past two years, a harbinger of a lower overall standard of living for Americans.

Exports have surged of late, but largely on the back of a falling dollar. The weaker dollar makes American exports cheaper, but it also pushes up oil prices. Potentially far more serious, a weakening dollar also reduces the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to steady the economy.
Finally, Mr. Bush’s focus on the size of the federal budget deficit ignores that annual government borrowing comes on top of existing debt. Publicly held federal debt will be up by a stunning 76 percent by the end of his presidency. Paying back the money means less to spend on everything else for a very long time.

.....

My advice, for what it's worth:

In addition to reducing debt as much as possible, learn to grow food, cook, sew, repair things, stock the pantry with non-perishable items, raise a few chickens, support local farmers and merchants, barter services/items with neighbors, form co-ops to combine the efforts of many people for the good of the community.

Love your family. And hunker down to survive this, the Bush Catastrophe.


We will. But it will be painful.

[skooooo]

1. I wonder if someone hasn't ever looked Bush...

...straight in the eyes and told him how completely fucking retarded he is?

[spartan61]

2. "ain't gonna happen."

Only his asswipes are allowed an audience with him and that's because they are yes people. They only tell him what he wants to hear. Look what happens when anyone tells him the truth. Case in point: Shinsecki (sp?), Clarke, Fallon.

[Joe Bacon]

9. Bush really believes the rapture bullshit

He really believes that God put him in the presidency to ensure the rapture. That is why he will go bomb Iran!

[BlueManDude]

3. Rove told him that Reagan was an opptimist so Bush is doing his RR impression

[mwb970]

4. We are going to need a name for this terrible period of our history.

In Spain, what we Americans call the "Spanish Civil War" is called el desastre ("the disaster"). We also have other named periods of history like the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, etc.

The bush presidency has been so destructive and so disruptive on a worldwide scale that it deserves a better, more suitable name than "the bush presidency". The OP suggests "the bush Catastrophe" (or perhaps just "the Catastrophe"?) which is a good starting point. Or what about "The Nightmare"?

We will not know for many years whether the Catastrophe has truly dealt a death blow to America, which is how it looks to most of us at this point. The spiraling debt, the creeping fascism, the criminal acts, the lies, the shredding of the Constitution, the coming economic Depression, the endless war, the cronies, the smirk, the incompetence, the environmental destruction, the arrogance, the tax giveaways, the election cheating, the loss of the world's respect, the creation of thousands of new enemies - make no mistake, this is a true Catastrophe for our country. Let's call it what it is.

[Vanje]

5. Banana-fest Destiny

...and a REC.
Bush is delusional.

[Phred42]

7. LOL ! Perfect - and tragic

[Phred42]

6. above

[zytime]

8. For context

"The unemployment rate ticked down last month because hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the work force altogether."

This is going to continue regardless for as long as the baby boomers are retiring. The first estimate of the retirement rate that I found was 10,000 per day.

http://liber8.stlouisfed.org/newsletter/2008/200803.pdf

That average comes out to ~300,000 per month which would account for the "hundreds of thousands of people." While this stat signals the escalation of an explosion in Social Security spending, and a shrinking of SS income, it is mostly just indicative of people getting old and retiring, instead of a job market that forces 10,000 people a day to give up. There are PLENTY of other facts and figures to show that we are screwed. It just struck me as odd that this would be chosen to support the idea that our labor market is hurting.

[ticktockman]

10. Job Growth Under Bush

I agree that the important fact is the total job growth, not consecutive number of months of job growth. The following table shows the monthly average change in population, the labor force, employment according to the Household Survey, total nonfarm employment, and total private employment over every presidential term since 1949, along with the unemployment rate at the beginning of each term:

CHANGE IN POPULATION, LABOR FORCE, AND EMPLOYMENT BY PRESIDENTIAL TERM (in thousands)                                  
.
                     Monthly Average Change (in thousands)
                     --------------------------------------------          Unemploy-
                        Popu-    Labor Househld  Nonfarm  Private   No. of      ment
President    Mo Year   lation    Force   Survey Employed Employed   Months      Rate
----------- --- ---- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ---------
Roosevelt   Jan 1941                               154.6    117.4       48       
Truman      Jan 1945                                57.8     65.3       48       
  "         Jan 1949     63.9     55.6     71.4    114.0     95.2       48       4.3
Eisenhower  Jan 1953    104.8     62.3     42.3     57.1     39.9       48       2.9
  "         Jan 1957    136.0     83.7     44.7     16.6     -3.1       48       4.2
Kennedy     Jan 1961    156.1     65.0     87.9    122.9     94.3       48       6.6
Johnson     Jan 1965    159.9    124.0    141.8    205.3    158.0       48       4.9
Nixon       Jan 1969    258.3    165.9    132.4    128.8     97.9       48       3.4
Nixon/Ford  Jan 1973    249.3    202.5    141.0    105.7     77.2       48       4.9
Carter      Jan 1977    237.8    225.4    208.9    215.4    188.2       48       7.5
Reagan      Jan 1981    172.5    139.6    132.2    110.9    111.4       48       7.5
  "         Jan 1985    172.1    180.5    216.8    224.6    194.6       48       7.3
G.H. Bush   Jan 1989    173.3    104.4     49.3     54.0     30.5       48       5.4
Clinton     Jan 1993    173.4    147.0    192.1    239.7    225.3       48       7.3
  "         Jan 1997    241.7    173.8    197.5    234.1    208.3       48       5.3
G.W. Bush   Jan 2001    228.1     87.1     51.0      0.1    -18.8       48       4.2
  "         Jan 2005    215.5    145.8    155.9    149.1    132.1       37       5.2
            Feb 2008                                                             4.8

Following is a graphical representation of the above numbers:



Taking both of Bush's terms together (through February 2008), the average monthly growth in nonfarm and private employment were 65.0 and 46.9 thousand, respectively. Those were the second worst since Eisenhower with Bush's father's term being the worst. Also, in looking at the employment numbers, I ran across the following interesting fact:

The unemployment rate has gone down during almost every term of a Democratic president and up during almost every term of a Republican president since 1949. That includes 15 presidential terms and the only exceptions were Carter (when the unemployment rate stayed about the same) and both terms of Reagan and the second term of G.W. Bush (when the unemployment rate dropped). For more information on this, see http://usbudget.blogspot.com/2008/03/job-growth-under-bush-and-prior.html .