Between cholera and the plague (fallout of war in Lebanon)

[IndianaGreen]

Between cholera and the plague

By Akiva Eldar

Much has been said and written about the idyllic relationship between Ehud Olmert and Amir Peretz. And indeed, the two arrived at yesterday's cabinet meeting hand in hand, having identical interests and suffering similar pressures. The prime minister and the defense minister, the leaders of the two biggest parties, both need an unequivocal victory in this war to the same extent. They both have the same fear of receiving a grade of "barely satisfactory" on the final exam that has suddenly landed on their heads during their first year of political science studies. Both of them have wives at home who would be happy to hear on the radio that the cabinet had voted against sending Israel Defense Forces soldiers into the inferno.

Nevertheless, there is a significant difference between these two politicians, who will apparently meet, sooner or later, on opposing sides of the ballot box. There are those in their intimate circles who are already wagering that it will be sooner rather than later. The war in the north has put an end to the slight chance left by the conflict in the south for the unilateral convergence plan - the only glue that holds the government together.

The grade given to the defense minister is calculated first and foremost by the relationship between the quantity of rocket launchers and the number of Hezbollah fighters that the IDF destroys, on one hand, and the quantity of missiles that turn the Galilee into a scorched ghost town and the number of civilians and soldiers killed in the war, on the other. The prime minister's grade also, and perhaps primarily, depends on the war's diplomatic outcome and its long-term implications.

Confidants who have spoken with Olmert in the past few days received the impression that he is well aware of the danger that the situation on the ground on the day after a second unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon will be similar to the situation in the territories on the day after the first disengagement from the Gaza Strip. That is to say, instead of a weak secular government with pro-western leanings, we will get an Islamic regime under strong Iranian influence in Lebanon. According to Olmert's own statements, he regards Hezbollah as the object that sprays the missiles, Syria as the pipeline and Iran as the main faucet.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/748530.html