Just a Good Ol' Boy?

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Howard Dean's Southern Strategy

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean is a master of timing. His appearance in Jacksonville, Florida on election day 2003 served several purposes. It signaled very clearly to the incumbent president that Dean, the putative frontrunner for next year's Democratic presidential nomination, believes that Florida is in play in 2004 and that the Bush team can't count on Florida this time around despite its obvious institutional advantages. An audacious move, given that last time around Jacksonville was beset with election irregularities like prohibitively long lines and misplaced voter registrations in precincts near the city's urban core.

That said, Dean's Jacksonville "Breakfast Meeting" visit sends a message to people besides Karl Rove and the other G.O.P. professionals. Dean understands that Bob Graham's recent withdrawal from the campaign opens a door to the Democratic base that had previously been closed to the insurgent. When Graham was in the running, polls showed that the Senator had upwards of 50% support among likely Florida primary voters. Running a distant second was Connecticut senator Lieberman, who seemingly maintained residual loyalty and support from his failed VP bid three years ago especially in the southern part of the state. Many professionals assumed it was best to leave the state to the Lieberman machine.

But Howard Dean is not your typical professional politician. The biggest political story of the 2004 Campaign, Dean has parlayed a series of longshot bets into frontrunner status .

But just when Dean was being defined by party moderates as too left-wing for the general election, Dean resourcefully took the initiative and redefined himself before the criticisms stuck. The former Governor repeated time and again his support of military action in Afghanistan . Despite hiring former AIPAC president Steven Grossman as head of his campaign fundraising, Dean took heat across the board when he called for an "even-handed" approach to the Israeli/Palestinian issue. Further controversy ensued when the candidate said that he sought to represent people with Confederate flags in the back of their trucks; Senator Kerry chided Dean for appealing to atavists, then piously intoned his desire to be the NAACP candidate. Whatever can be said about Dean, he doesn't shy away from what more conventional minds interpret as glaring contradictions; arguably, he embraces them in a manner not seen in American politics since Carter in 1976 .

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