The Long Plateau of Peak Oil

[Clara T]

PHOTO CAPTION: Wooden oil derricks stretching out into California's Santa Barbara Channel, circa early 1900s, would be replaced by modern offshore platforms. A series of oil spills forced a moratorium on development of other potential oil and gas deposits off the coast of California.

The Long Plateau of Peak Oil

By Tom Standing

Oil's peak will be signaled by a decade-long plateau in non-OPEC member production

February 14, 2006


When might the peak of world oil production arrive, and what might be the peak production rate? These are key questions, with many unknowns but few equations. The most we can do is to make some educated guesses based on past observations. Global oil production's peak will probably not form a well-defined crest. Instead, it will likely stretch out as an irregular plateau. I will crawl out onto the limb to say that the plateau might begin around 2010 and extend to 2020. The highest sustained level of crude oil production might be 10 million b/d greater than production for 2006, a gain of about 15%.

Some analysts have applied the mathematical methods pioneered by M. King Hubbert to estimate both the year and rate of peak oil production. In his seminal 1956 paper, Hubbert correctly predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. Applying the axiom, "You can only produce what you first discover," he exhaustively compiled the history of oil discoveries and reserve additions. He then translated the history into a production profile for the future.

<snip>

Other analyses were even more optimistic. But from 1985-2000, production declined by 35%, matching the decline rate of 1971-76. The last 40 years of U.S. oil production formed an irregular plateau with two noticeable peaks that reflected Lower 48 depletion, prolific new production in Alaska, steamflooding in California, and expanded activity in the Gulf of Mexico. We can thus say that the peak extended from 1970 to 1985. For global oil production, we can expect a similar phenomenon, but with more peaks and valleys caused by myriad resources in various stages of development and depletion, that present a wide range of qualities and physical challenges.

Different classes of resources will contribute oil at different times and in different quantities. Applying Dr. Hubbert's methods to the entire world is impossible, due to the lack of drilling and discovery data by most producer nations. Perhaps tracking actual production rates of producer nations and relating those rates to exploratory and development activity can provide clues to near-term future production. This is not intended to be an exhaustive analysis of hard data, but rather, a series of judgments based on known resources, recent production history, and the potential for new developments. Such an ad hoc method is subject to disagreement and second-guessing, but it is a starting point for deliberation and debate.

http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=article&storyid=975

[megatherium]

1. We won't be 'back in the stone ages by 2025' as some people think.

The drop off in oil production won't be precipitous, it will be gradual. We will have hard times economically, but not a collapse of our civilization.

[slaveplanet]

2. call me skeptical

but I'm very skeptical when the same newsletter that pushes articles like this , also push the opinions of oilionares, with lots to gain from peak oil, and population control advocates.

[Coastie for Truth]

3. Did you read the full article

and flip through evworld?