Plea Bargain with America

[Thom Little]

Bad Bet: As John Dickerson points out, Jack Abramoff's plea agreement has Washington waiting for the next Gucci to drop. Dickerson lists five members with an Abramoff problem. The Wall Street Journal suggests that number could reach 60, which would put it in the same league as the House banking scandal of the early '90s. James Carville told the "Today Show" that the over/under on implicated members is seven, which would surpass Abscam and the Keating Five. Fortunately, Abramoff persuaded the Republican leadership to lay off Internet gaming so that scandal watchers can find a site to place their bets.

Republicans worry less about the total number than about the party affiliation. After a decade of opposing bipartisanship at every turn, the House Republican leadership is desperately hoping the scandal will turn out to be bipartisan, so they can hide behind an "everybody does it" defense.

Even so, the overall number of congressmen caught in Abramoff's web still matters, for two reasons. First, the more districts in which scandal becomes an issue, the more volatile the midterm elections will be. Apart from redistricting, scandal is the number-one risk factor for congressional mortality. Precious few members lose their seats because of shifts in the political winds, but scandal can put any seat in play.

Even the great tidal wave of 1994 had its roots in scandal. Without the congressional troubles of the late '80s and early '90s, which helped fuel the term limits movement, Newt Gingrich could never have drummed up enough voter anger to oust the ruling party.



http://www.slate.com/id/2133655/