History warns Middle East could explode in war like pre-WWI Europe

[Selatius]

After all, the forces bedeviling the Middle East today are fundamentally the same ones that tore Europe apart in the last century.

Europe a century ago was the continent through which the world's biggest geopolitical fault lines ran. Like the Middle East today, it had the allure of natural resources (coal and iron, not oil). Like the Middle East today, it had a rapidly growing population that was deeply divided along ethnic lines (though the majority were Christians, not Muslims). And like the Middle East today, it was where the tectonic plates of empire met.

Many glib commentators like to blame all the problems of the Middle East today on British and French imperial maneuvers to fashion dependencies out of the lost provinces of the Ottoman Empire — as if malicious European diplomats somehow invented the ancient fissures between Shiites and Sunnis, or willfully encouraged Jewish settlers to colonize Palestine.

...

Iraq could easily go the way of Lebanon in the late 1970s, only bigger and bloodier. And such a war could easily escalate into a regional conflict.

If the history of 20th century Europe is anything to go by, all the ingredients are now in place for the biggest conflagration in Middle Eastern history. The only good news is that the first thing to go up in smoke will be the theory of a democratic peace.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-ferguson19dec19,0,7077080.column?coll=la-news-comment-opinions

[bemildred]

1. Pretty gloomy that one, but an interesting opinion. nt

[sarcasmo]

2. Kick and Nom. When Israel attacks Iran on orders from the new Amerka.

WWIII will be in full bloom.

[teryang]

3. Balkanization is an ideological proclivity manipulated by US.

Rhodesian great gamers use tribalized nationalism to divide and conquer. The shifts in the regional balance of power cause remaining sovereign powers to become more extreme or darwinian in their approach to preserve themselves. The ensuing radicalization of relations ensures destruction or near destruction of the participants. Nationalism based on ethnicity is a profoundly defective concept. Tribalists however embrace the defective notion, expecting exclusive benefits.

The democracy theory is propaganda overlay. What is going on is a war for control of resources and markets. Neo-cons/Rhodesians/Straussians don't believe that foreigners have any rights. Further they believe that lies and propaganda are all the masses deserve, inasmuch as ordinary citizens don't have the ability to comprehend foreign policy as they do as "elites." However, they are only fooling their domestic constituency, the masses. Great powers like China and Russia know exactly what we are doing.

WWI and WWII are a continuum. The US is mimicking the paranoid Nazi fear that drove Germany to one excess after another. The fear was that they would be eclipsed by a greater rival. Solution? Seize territory and resources first - become a belligerent. The cause is a form of social darwinism where corporate elites see their continental resource base evaporating while foreign markets seek sovereign control of their own resources. The result is a desperate fascist survivalism manifesting itself as oppression at home and military aggression abroad.

[Demeter]

4. I Don't Think So

The psychology of Arab cultures is nothing like that of Europe. It is far more likely that Europe will explode from the clash of native and immigrant populations.

[enigma000]

5. That, I fear, is true

the duel cultures of Europe: post-Christian. early retirement, apologetic, cheap wine drinking "traditional" Europeans and angry, jobless, welfare claiming, alienated, Muslim recent immigrants from the Mid East and North Africa are on their ways to clashing. In 15 years when the "Death to the Infidel Social Democratic" party wins the election in Holland or Sweden or France, what do you think the all White army is going to do? Stage a coup-d-d'etat? Can you say civil war?

My friends & I have taken bets when the Louver is burnt down on government orders. I have 2027.

[bemildred]

6. I think we may expect both.

There are some Muslim states that look OK, and some that look like trouble ahead, e.g. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, perhaps later the Central Asian states.

[Demeter]

7. I Think Saudi Arabia Will Implode of Its Internal Self-Contradictions

nobody from the outside will have to do anything (except succor the refugees).

Pakistan stands the best chance of western style political accommodations among its various groups. The Pakistanis have been exposed to the world, and they liked what they saw.

[bemildred]

8. I've seen quite gloomy things written about Pakistan,

e.g. Emmanuel Todd in "After the Empire".

I will admit I am not completely convinced,
and yet given the situation in Iraq and
Afghanistan, the apparent weakening of US
"control" in the ME, and the already fragmented
nature of the Pakistani central government's
control of its territory, I find it hard to
be sanguine.

The truth is, IMHO, that chaos looms in the
Middle East, with only two sound anchors of
stability and strength: Turkey and Iran.